Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST THU APR 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
LOCALLY. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BROUGHT BY THE EASTERLY
WINDS PRODUCED BY THE HIGH...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING WITH IT SOME FAST MOVING PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A RELATIVE DRY AND STABLE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MAIN
MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINE BETWEEN 1000-750MB LEVELS...WITH VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INDUCE ONLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS
EVERY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY BETWEEN THE 15-20 KTS RANGE.
THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH
ANY ACTIVITY WHICH DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE
WINDS WILL MOVE THESE SHOWERS FAST.

HOWEVER...DURING THE WEEKEND...THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EAST...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINE WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...TO
PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...MAINLY OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SJU-GFS PROGNOSIS SOUNDINGS INDICATED
PW VALUES WILL INCREASE AS HIGH AS 2.00 INCHES BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK..COMPARED TO BARELY 1.00 INCH WHICH IS THE CASE NOW. IN
GENERAL..LOOKS LIKE THE END OF THIS WEEK...WILL BE THE DRIEST
PERIOD...WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT
WEEK. A WETTER PERIOD COULD BE IN STORE IN MID APRIL...WHICH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...IS WHAT WE MAY EXPECT DURING THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR...AS WE APPROACH THE MONTH OF MAY...THE BEGINNING OF
THE WET SEASON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION....BRIEF MVFR CONDS DUE TO CIGS MAY BE EXPECTED AT
TIST...TISX...TNCM AND TKPK UNTIL 08/15Z. SOME MVFR IS POSSIBLE AT
TJMZ AFTER 08/16Z DUE TO CIGS. SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
LIKELY IN WEST CENTRAL PUERTO RICO AFT 08/16Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL. SFC WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 TO 18 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY UNABATED NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Updates from the Islands -
- - St.Vincent & Grenadines - -
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... cent.shtml

- WET STUFF FALLING
By "Stan Clayton" <stan at fireflymustique.com>
Date: Thu, 8 Apr 2010 07:06:55 -0400

Well, yesterday afternoon here in the “Mustique Desert” we had 33 mm of lovely delicious rain compared to the 21 mm we have had since February 1st and it is still raining this morning!!

Let’s hope we get more and if I hear any tourists complaining I might just give them a slap!!


Best Regards

Stan

[Gustywind]

woohoo look at the Netherland Antillean rainfall today...as well as the rains on St Lucia

Regional Weather Summary
Wed Apr 07 2010

Today's Highs and rain (if any)

Piarco, Trinidad 35.7C 96F **44th cons. day at or over 33.7C**
Crown Point, Tobago 31.9C 90F
Point Salines, Grenada 30.5C 87F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.4C 86F 3mm
Rockley, Barbados 29.9C 86F 1.3mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.5C 85F 0.5mm
Hewanorra, St Lucia 27.1C 81F 47.1mm
Vigie, St Lucia 28.1C 82F 2.3mm
Canefield, Dominica 30.2C 86F trace
Melville Hall, Domincia 27.4C 81F 7mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 29.2C 85F 2.6mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 29.1C 84F 0.4mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.8C 84F 3mm
VC Bird, Antigua 29.1C 84F 0.2mm
Juliana Airport, St Marteen 28.7C 84F 0.7mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 29.4C 85F trace

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 30.6C 87F
Norman Manley, Jamaica 31.1C 88F
Sangster, Montego Bay, Jamaica 31.0C 88F trace
Nassau, Bahamas 27.7C 82F
Havana, Cuba 29.0C 84F
Puerto Palta, DR 28.4C 83F 9mm
Santo D0mingo, DR 32.2C trace
Hamilton, Bermuda 22.3C 72F

Hato, Curacao 26.7 80F 15.1mm
Flamingo, Bonaire 26.9C 80F 22.1mm
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 29.5C 85F 11.8mm

- Updates from the Islands -
- - St.Lucia - -
- (no subject)
By SWhite3726 at aol.com
Date: Wed, 7 Apr 2010 07:50:03 EDT
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/stlucia.shtml

I'm singing in the rain, just singing in the rain, what a glorious feeling, I'm happy again.........

Yup, its REALLY raining here. Started yesterday as you will see from my previous posts. A good amount of rain but delivered in lots of heavy showers, BUT from the middle of the night until now, it hasn't stopped! Yippee the reservoirs are a filling!

There is plenty of rain as well, its not just a gentle rainfall, but good Caribbean downpours, fantastic. I guess the North of the island might avoid it, their weather can be very different to ours, lets hope the holidaymakers are understanding of our need for it.

So bring on some more, lets get everything filled up and topped up, and wow, the difference in the trees already, lots of leaves appearing, plenty of little heads of green standing out amongst the dry stuff in the bush now, we might even get to hear the tree frogs tonight, they have been missed and very quiet for nearly two months now, should be a really loud chorus!

Yesterdays pic, here comes the rain ........................

[HUC]

...and i'am crying under the sun...............always drought here in the south part of the island(50mm since jannuary 1st......),and nothing in the near future:the rain band after passing Guadeloupe with not a drop! stalls over the central Winward for the entire week with a lot of showers....For what reason????
So,glad to you friends of ST Lucia,Martinica,and surrounding islands,and hope for us...
Expect for rain to coming from the south at the end of the month.This year apppears to me like the year 1958 ( after no rain from january to april,the ITCZ run over the Antillies and from may to november,it was raining hard almost every day!!!
Did someone remember that???

[msbee]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100407/us_nm/us_storm_hurricanes_forecast

[Gustywind]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100407/us_nm/us_storm_hurricanes_forecast

U.S. forecaster sees increased 2010 hurricane threat
Buzz up!259 votes Send
Reuters
By Pascal Fletcher Pascal Fletcher – Wed Apr 7, 1:30 pm ET
MIAMI (Reuters) – The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will produce an above-average eight hurricanes, four of them major, posing a heightened threat to the U.S. coastline, the Colorado State University hurricane forecasting team predicted on Wednesday.

In its second forecast in four months for the 2010 season, the leading storm research team founded by hurricane forecast pioneer William Gray said the six-month season beginning on June 1 would likely see 15 named tropical storms.

The team forecast a 69 percent chance of at least one major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2010, compared with a long-term average probability of 52 percent.

Major hurricanes pack powerful sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km per hour).

For the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas, including the Gulf of Mexico oil patch, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall was seen at 44 percent versus a long-term average of 30 percent, the Colorado State University team said.

"While patterns may change before the start of the hurricane season, we believe current conditions warrant concern for an above-average season," Gray said in a statement.

An average Atlantic season has about 10 tropical storms, of which six become hurricanes.

The Colorado State University team also predicted a 58 percent chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean, where Haiti is vulnerable after a devastating January 12 earthquake that left more than a million people homeless.

'EXTREME' SEASON FEARED

The earlier forecast in December by Gray's team had already predicted an "above-average" season producing 11 to 16 tropical storms, including six to eight hurricanes. It had said three to five of next year's storms would become "major" hurricanes of Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson intensity scale.

Another forecaster, AccuWeather.com, last month also forecast a potentially "extreme" hurricane season this year, with "above-normal threats" to the U.S. coastline.

AccuWeather said five hurricanes, two or three of them major, were expected to strike the U.S. coast, forming out of an expected 16 to 18 tropical storms, almost all of them in the western Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico.

The 2009 season ended November 30 had only nine storms, including three hurricanes, and was the quietest since 1997 due in part to El Nino, the eastern Pacific warm water phenomenon that tends to suppress Atlantic hurricanes.

But Phil Klotzbach, lead forecaster with the Colorado State team -- whose research is followed closely by energy and commodity markets -- said El Nino was expected to dissipate fully by the start of this year's storm season.

"The dissipating El Nino, along with the expected anomalously warm Atlantic ocean sea surface temperatures, will lead to favorable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions for hurricane formation and intensification," said Klotzbach.

The Colorado State University team has repeatedly cautioned that extended-range forecasts for hurricane activity are imprecise and can often miss the mark.

The university team originally expected the 2009 season to produce 14 tropical cyclones, of which seven would become hurricanes. But the season, which ended on November 30 and was the quietest since 1997, had only nine storms, including three hurricanes.

(Additional reporting by Tom Brown, editing by Tom Brown and Doina Chiacu)

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
316 PM AST THU APR 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
HELP MAINTAIN BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE VI...NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO EACH DAY. A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK...WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TWO AREAS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...ONE CURRENTLY
TRACKING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SECOND ON THAT IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN SEA BOARD ON SATURDAY...WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS...ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. PATCHY MOISTURE WILL AID IN THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE FOR WIDESPREAD OR DEEP
CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING AN INCREASE IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BY
EARLY OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH MORE
FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...WILL ALLOW
FOR MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY AND AT LEAST ISOLATED
DAILY THUNDERSTORM FORMATION BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
WENT AHEAD AND CONTINUED TO TREND UPWARDS THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AS WELL AS THE EXPECTED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT MINIMAL CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTN SHRA OVR THE WSW INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR WILL
LEAD TO PERIODS OF MVFR IN VCNTY OF TJMZ AND TJPS AT LEAST TIL
08/22Z. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL IMPACTS EXPECTED AT
THESE TAF SITES OTHER THAN BRIEF WND GUSTS DUE TO NEARBY SHRA.
MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
WITH A PREVAILING EASTERLY LLVL WND FLOW AT 15 TO 20 KTS. PATCHES OF
PASSING CLDS/SHRA BTW 020-070K FT WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME
MAY REACH THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PR AND LEAD TO BRIEF MTN
OBSCURATIONS OVR THE EAST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.

&&

[tropicana]

Regional Weather Summary
Thu Apr 08 2010

Today's Highs and rain (if any)

Piarco, Trinidad 33.7C 93F **45th cons. day at or over 33.7C** (just barely) 0.2mm
Crown Point, Tobago 30C 86F (estimated) Showers today
Point Salines, Grenada 30.0C 86F 3.3mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 28.8C 84F 4.1mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 28.8C 84F 11.0mm
Hewanorra, St Lucia 28.7C 84F 15mm
Vigie, St Lucia 29.1C 84F 3.6mm
Canefield, Dominica 31.2C 88F 0.2mm
Melville Hall, Domincia 29.0C 84F trace
Le Lamentin, Martinique 30.0C 86F 0.2mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 30.4C 86F trace
Golden Rock, St Kitts 29.2C 84F trace
VC Bird, Antigua 29.6C 85F 0.7mm
St Thomas, VI 30.6C 87F 0.3mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 29.4C 85F trace

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 30.7C 87F
Norman Manley, Jamaica 30.9C 88F
Sangster, Montego Bay, Jamaica 31.2C 88F
Nassau, Bahamas 28.3C 83F
Havana, Cuba 31.4C 88F
Puerto Plata, DR 30.1C 86F
Santo Domingo, DR 31.5C 89F trace
Hamilton, Bermuda 22.1C 72F

Hato, Curacao 31.2C 88F 0.8mm
Flamingo, Bonaire 31.6C 89F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 32.4C 90F

[Macrocane]

Strong thunderstorms have developed this afternoon in parts of Belice, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador:

[knotimpaired]

Yippee, we are no longer the ugly stepchild...just kidding folks.

Since moving here full time 6 years ago, for the first 3-4 years our weather was pretty consistent. Dry Jan, Feb, March, April, June, July, Dec. Wet the rest of the year. These past few years there seems to be no pattern. Everyone used to base their home projects (house painting, renovations, etc) around that familiar weather pattern but that seems to be a thing of the past.

Starting next week our annual project starts. Painting the exterior of the house and building a 200', 6' high concrete wall along the front of our property. With 4 men, it will still take about a month to complete.

So whoever that weather genie is up in the sky, make up your mind on our annual weather pattern or someone better start doling out valium and I do not mean the 5mg, the good stuff.

Nothing screws up a project like good old fashion rain. But I would imagine it has happened to all of us.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST FRI APR 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
NEXT FEW DAYS. WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALMOST SAME WEATHER PATTERN HAS PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA LAST 24 HOURS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BROUGHT
BY THE EASTERLY WINDS PRODUCED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING
WITH IT SOME FAST MOVING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
COMPUTER MODELS STILL SUGGEST BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...A
WETTER SCENARIO WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE...BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...COMBINE WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS MOMENT...THE WETTEST
DAY NEXT WEEK APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY..AS A COLD FRONT...OR ITS
REMNANT APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WILL
COMBINE WITH ALL FEATURES PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. STILL ONE WEEK TO
KNOW IF THIS WILL VERIFY OR NOT...THEREFORE...STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH A PREVAILING EASTERLY LLVL WND FLOW AT 15 TO 20 KTS.
PATCHES OF PASSING CLDS/SHRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO GENERATING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINAL OF TJBQ AND TJMZ.

[cycloneye]

Yippee, we are no longer the ugly stepchild...just kidding folks.

Since moving here full time 6 years ago, for the first 3-4 years our weather was pretty consistent. Dry Jan, Feb, March, April, June, July, Dec. Wet the rest of the year. These past few years there seems to be no pattern. Everyone used to base their home projects (house painting, renovations, etc) around that familiar weather pattern but that seems to be a thing of the past.

Starting next week our annual project starts. Painting the exterior of the house and building a 200', 6' high concrete wall along the front of our property. With 4 men, it will still take about a month to complete.

So whoever that weather genie is up in the sky, make up your mind on our annual weather pattern or someone better start doling out valium and I do not mean the 5mg, the good stuff.

Nothing screws up a project like good old fashion rain. But I would imagine it has happened to all of us.

Hi there in Vieques.I merged your thread with our Caribbean mother thread.

[cycloneye]

Below is a scary forecast for the Eastern Caribbean made by TSR in their April outlook.

The important thing for us is to be prepared for the worse case scenario but lets hope that nothing occurs.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Code: Select all

Caribbean Lesser Antilles Landfalling Numbers in 2010

ACE Intense Tropical

Index Hurricanes Hurricanes Storms

TSR Forecast (±FE) 2010 2.3 (± 2.0) 0.4 (±0.4) 0.7 (±0.6) 1.6 (±0.9)

60yr Climate Norm (±SD) 1950-2009 1.3 (±2.0) 0.2 (±0.5) 0.5 (±0.7) 1.1 (±1.0)

Forecast Skill at this Lead 1980-2009 0% 7% 12% 0%

Key: ACE Index = Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index = Sum of the Squares of hourly Maximum
Sustained Wind Speeds (in units of knots) for all Systems while they are at least
Tropical Storm Strength and within the boxed region (10oN-18oN,60oW-63oW)

(reduced by a factor of 6). ACE Unit = x104 knots2.
Landfall Strike Category = Maximum 1 Minute Sustained Wind of Storm Directly Striking Land.
Lesser Antilles = Island Arc from Anguilla to Trinidad Inclusive.

[cycloneye]

A report from ST Lucia about the rainfall in the past three days.

http://stormcarib.com/

Date: Fri, 9 Apr 2010 08:31:50 EDT

Good Morning to all from a wet and windy St. Lucia, how amazing is it, we have had rain for two days! All day Wednesday it was pretty much continuous and yesterday most of the day but more showery, and then this morning looked like a promising sunny start but, nope, back it came. Strong gusty winds and heavy showers, so it looks like it might be another day of more of the same.

This certainly will go a long way to alleviating the drought, although I am sure we still need more to top up those reservoirs properly. It still never ceases to amaze me the difference in the vegetation with any shower let alone this much. Talk about a jump start. Green buds and shoots everywhere, my lettuces have gone into overdrive!

I was expecting to hear the tree frogs last night though, I mean after two days of rain I assumed they would have come out of their deep, dark hiding places and start their night time chorus again - but, nothing. Where have they gone, the drought can't have killed them ALL off surely? Maybe they have hidden themselves so deep trying to find a hint of moisture to survive in, that the soil has to be really soft for them to be able to get back out, who knows but it is very strange.

Anyway keep the rain coming, and I do hope the tourists will forgive us our temporary hitch in our sunshine and appreciate how much we need it. One of the best days out I ever had was being in a waterfall in the middle of a thunderstorm, now that was fun!

Have a great weekend all.

[cycloneye]

The models continue to forecast a wet week.

96 hours or next tuesday.



120 hours or next Wednesday.

[Macrocane]

After yesterday thunderstorms we began the day with a late season weak "Northerly winds" event (I didn't see this coming) although I don't think that it will produce a significant decrease in the temperatures. These are the minimum temperatures registered this morning:

Santa Ana, El Salvador 20°C/68°F
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.4°C/68.7°F
San Miguel, El Salvador 24°C/75°F
Belize city, Belize 24°C/75°F
Guatemala, Guatemala 16°C/61°F
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C/63°F
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C/77°F
San Jose, Costa Rica 21°C/70°F
Panama city, Panama 25°C/77°F

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1258 PM AST FRI APR 9 2010

PRC021-061-127-091900-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0041.100409T1658Z-100409T1900Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-
1258 PM AST FRI APR 9 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...GUAYNABO AND SAN JUAN

* UNTIL 300 PM AST

* AT 1253 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. HEAVIEST RAINS WERE IN AND
AROUND CUPEY...CAIMITO...MONACILLO...AND NEAR CARRAIZO WHERE THE
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL ACCUMULATION BETWEEN AN INCH TO
AN INCH AND A HALF WITH THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE
THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST FRI APR 9 2010

PRC021-061-127-092100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0042.100409T1857Z-100409T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-
257 PM AST FRI APR 9 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS REISSUED AND EXTENDED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...GUAYNABO AND SAN JUAN

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 254 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS CONTINUED TO
REDEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREAS AND THEREFORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT LEAST UNTIL 500 PM AST.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE
THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
320 PM AST FRI APR 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE VI...NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO EACH DAY. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS PUERTO RICO
TODAY. SHOWERS FORMED DOWNSTREAM OF THE VI AND AFFECTED THE
EASTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FORMED ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO DUE TO SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE THERE...BUT EXPECT ALL THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SIMILAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH PATCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RELATIVELY STABLE MID LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
HOWEVER...EXPECT AN UPSWING IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WE START NEXT
WEEK...WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE
REGION...A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ALL CONTRIBUTING A MUCH WETTER WEEK AND MORE TYPICAL
MID APRIL WEATHER WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF PASSING CLDS/SHRA WILL MOVE FM EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY LEAD TO TEMPO MVFR CONDS EN ROUTE
ACROSS THE WEST AND EAST INTERIOR SECTION OF PR...AS WELL AS BRIEF
MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS DUE TO THE PASSING SHOWERS AND LWR CIGS. AFTN
CONVECTION IN THE WEST MAY ALSO LEAD TO TEMPO MVFR CONDS FOR TJBQ
AND TJMZ DUE TO VCSH UNTIL 09/22Z.