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Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:54 pm
by Cpv17
Brent wrote:Haris wrote:While the trends are not good, too early to be sure. Laura is still many days out. You saw how quick Marco's forecast changed... same could happen to Laura's... further, there are models that bring Laura as far as Browsville. Still anyone's game.
Got 1.3" of rain this morning! Small dime sized hail too. Rained for a good 4-5 hours.
Yeah that's a good point about Laura we don't even know where the final center is gonna be yet so things can still change although I do agree trends are not good
And to be honest Marco was so small I'm not really sure he would have been a big rain event anyway especially when it looked like he was gonna heavily sheared at landfall in Texas
Many of the models barely had a signal compared to what Laura might be so we'll see what happens
Right on cue both the GFS and Ukmet hit Galveston who knows how far west they could go by Wednesday honestly lol
We’ll see what the Euro shows next. If it’s further west then expect the NHC to nudge west with the track.
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:20 am
by Brent
Cpv17 wrote:Brent wrote:Haris wrote:While the trends are not good, too early to be sure. Laura is still many days out. You saw how quick Marco's forecast changed... same could happen to Laura's... further, there are models that bring Laura as far as Browsville. Still anyone's game.
Got 1.3" of rain this morning! Small dime sized hail too. Rained for a good 4-5 hours.
Yeah that's a good point about Laura we don't even know where the final center is gonna be yet so things can still change although I do agree trends are not good
And to be honest Marco was so small I'm not really sure he would have been a big rain event anyway especially when it looked like he was gonna heavily sheared at landfall in Texas
Many of the models barely had a signal compared to what Laura might be so we'll see what happens
Right on cue both the GFS and Ukmet hit Galveston who knows how far west they could go by Wednesday honestly lol
We’ll see what the Euro shows next. If it’s further west then expect the NHC to nudge west with the track.
Euro not only hits Texas but it's extremely strong
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:21 am
by South Texas Storms
Yikes...glad I stocked up the cars with gas yesterday and am getting groceries delivered later this morning. Not good trends in the 0z model guidance for Houston tonight.
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:55 am
by Cpv17
Brent wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Brent wrote:
Yeah that's a good point about Laura we don't even know where the final center is gonna be yet so things can still change although I do agree trends are not good
And to be honest Marco was so small I'm not really sure he would have been a big rain event anyway especially when it looked like he was gonna heavily sheared at landfall in Texas
Many of the models barely had a signal compared to what Laura might be so we'll see what happens
Right on cue both the GFS and Ukmet hit Galveston who knows how far west they could go by Wednesday honestly lol
We’ll see what the Euro shows next. If it’s further west then expect the NHC to nudge west with the track.
Euro not only hits Texas but it's extremely strong
https://i.ibb.co/Xy6V866/prateptype-cat-ecmwf-gom-5.png
Thankfully that wouldn’t have any impact on my area. I want a storm but not a monster like that.
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:57 am
by Cpv17
South Texas Storms wrote:Yikes...glad I stocked up the cars with gas yesterday and am getting groceries delivered later this morning. Not good trends in the 0z model guidance for Houston tonight.
The east side of Houston over to SWLA would take it right on the chin with that run.
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:45 am
by Cpv17
The 0z EPS is downright terrifying for Texas.
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:23 am
by Brent
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:39 am
by Cpv17
The models could slightly shift back east today judging by the 06z Euro and the 12z ICON. I kinda feel like the west shifts have come to a commence but we’ll see.
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:47 am
by Portastorm
Cpv17 wrote:The models could slightly shift back east today judging by the 06z Euro and the 12z ICON. I kinda feel like the west shifts have come to a commence but we’ll see.
I wouldn’t be surprised by further west shifts considering some of the latest real time developments.
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:51 am
by Cpv17
Portastorm wrote:Cpv17 wrote:The models could slightly shift back east today judging by the 06z Euro and the 12z ICON. I kinda feel like the west shifts have come to a commence but we’ll see.
I wouldn’t be surprised by further west shifts considering some of the latest real time developments.
I see your point but I just don’t know how much more this thing could keep shifting west. At some point they have to end. I mean it already shifted from the big bend of FL to the TX/LA border.
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:50 am
by Brent
Portastorm wrote:Cpv17 wrote:The models could slightly shift back east today judging by the 06z Euro and the 12z ICON. I kinda feel like the west shifts have come to a commence but we’ll see.
I wouldn’t be surprised by further west shifts considering some of the latest real time developments.
yeah the further south the center is the more west its coming
nobody thought it'd be south of Cuba but that's looking entirely possible right now
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:55 am
by Cpv17
Brent wrote:Portastorm wrote:Cpv17 wrote:
The models could slightly shift back east today judging by the 06z Euro and the 12z ICON. I kinda feel like the west shifts have come to a commence but we’ll see.
I wouldn’t be surprised by further west shifts considering some of the latest real time developments.
yeah the further south the center is the more west its coming
Very true. It could completely miss Cuba to the south by a few miles with the way it’s looking now. And the latest Para ensembles are strongly clustered between basically Corpus to Beaumont.
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:41 pm
by Brent
Boy the euro is having a rough go this storm lol an open wave for days then it finally shows a major last night only to show a weak TS at 12z I can't anymore
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:14 pm
by Cpv17
Brent wrote:Boy the euro is having a rough go this storm lol an open wave for days then it finally shows a major last night only to show a weak TS at 12z I can't anymore
It’s struggling bad.
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 3:21 pm
by Brent
Cpv17 wrote:Brent wrote:Boy the euro is having a rough go this storm lol an open wave for days then it finally shows a major last night only to show a weak TS at 12z I can't anymore
It’s struggling bad.
The EPS isn't much better back into Central Louisiana but all of them have it moving NW from here which doesn't seem very probable
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 4:06 pm
by Ntxw
Whatever happens with the gulf systems, the resultant pattern may actually shift with it to give us a first taste of Fall...potentially. Something to ponder.
Reminder time is now ticking on the summer thread as we will migrate to the Fall thread for September-October-November!
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 4:39 pm
by rwfromkansas
Track shifted away from DFW again. Never seen such crazy track shifts.
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:21 pm
by Yukon Cornelius
rwfromkansas wrote:Track shifted away from DFW again. Never seen such crazy track shifts.
No joke. It’s been pretty insane.
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 7:12 pm
by aggiecutter
Cat 5 in Gulf of Mexico:
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:34 pm
by Brent
rwfromkansas wrote:Track shifted away from DFW again. Never seen such crazy track shifts.
I don't think they are done the ukmet went west and is now between Matagorda and Galveston and it's barely east of Dallas in the later times
actually 967 mb between Corsicana and Fairfield
