Texas Fall 2022

[Ntxw]

I’m wondering if we will get an SSW this winter.

I hope if we do, it's not to the extent of February 2021. The 8 inches+ of snow was awesome, but the intensity/duration of freeze was scary/damaging for the flora, fauna, and humans. I went out every couple of hours to check on the outside hose bibs, and the inside faucets!lol

I’m hearing there’s potential this winter for some historic cold but I don’t really believe any long range forecast.

So far this early Fall season has shown tendencies of -NAO. While I'm not jumping on the wagon of 2020-2021 redux, third year -ENSO analogs do feature some early season blocking. -NAO was a better player in 2020-2021 than 2021-2022. November and December will be interesting if we see a hard flip.

[Iceresistance]

I hope if we do, it's not to the extent of February 2021. The 8 inches+ of snow was awesome, but the intensity/duration of freeze was scary/damaging for the flora, fauna, and humans. I went out every couple of hours to check on the outside hose bibs, and the inside faucets!lol

I’m hearing there’s potential this winter for some historic cold but I don’t really believe any long range forecast.

So far this early Fall season has shown tendencies of -NAO. While I'm not jumping on the wagon of 2020-2021 redux, third year -ENSO analogs do feature some early season blocking. -NAO was a better player in 2020-2021 than 2021-2022. November and December will be interesting if we see a hard flip.

The NAO is currently at -1.5 and is expected to rise, the PNA is expected to have a sharp negative dip to make the Western US to get cold, wet, and possibly snowy.

[bubba hotep]

I hope if we do, it's not to the extent of February 2021. The 8 inches+ of snow was awesome, but the intensity/duration of freeze was scary/damaging for the flora, fauna, and humans. I went out every couple of hours to check on the outside hose bibs, and the inside faucets!lol

I’m hearing there’s potential this winter for some historic cold but I don’t really believe any long range forecast.

So far this early Fall season has shown tendencies of -NAO. While I'm not jumping on the wagon of 2020-2021 redux, third year -ENSO analogs do feature some early season blocking. -NAO was a better player in 2020-2021 than 2021-2022. November and December will be interesting if we see a hard flip.

Also, analogs point towards a weaker SPV. A raging SPV has kept a lot of cold bottled up north over the past several winters. A weaker one should allow for more frequent cold dumps into the lower 48.

[Ntxw]

I’m hearing there’s potential this winter for some historic cold but I don’t really believe any long range forecast.

So far this early Fall season has shown tendencies of -NAO. While I'm not jumping on the wagon of 2020-2021 redux, third year -ENSO analogs do feature some early season blocking. -NAO was a better player in 2020-2021 than 2021-2022. November and December will be interesting if we see a hard flip.

Also, analogs point towards a weaker SPV. A raging SPV has kept a lot of cold bottled up north over the past several winters. A weaker one should allow for more frequent cold dumps into the lower 48.

Another feature to watch is the NPAC waters. It is not doing what 2021 did for the warm start to winter. But rather closer to 2020.

[Iceresistance]

So far this early Fall season has shown tendencies of -NAO. While I'm not jumping on the wagon of 2020-2021 redux, third year -ENSO analogs do feature some early season blocking. -NAO was a better player in 2020-2021 than 2021-2022. November and December will be interesting if we see a hard flip.

Also, analogs point towards a weaker SPV. A raging SPV has kept a lot of cold bottled up north over the past several winters. A weaker one should allow for more frequent cold dumps into the lower 48.

Another feature to watch is the NPAC waters. It is not doing what 2021 did for the warm start to winter. But rather closer to 2020.

https://i.imgur.com/a3k5sAc.png

https://i.imgur.com/L4IkBp1.png

https://i.imgur.com/WbML4nv.png

Call me crazy, but could we have an even harder winter than 2020-2021? We're still in a La Nina, it's weird that the La Nina Winters are harder than El Nino Winters.

[Brent]

Also, analogs point towards a weaker SPV. A raging SPV has kept a lot of cold bottled up north over the past several winters. A weaker one should allow for more frequent cold dumps into the lower 48.

Another feature to watch is the NPAC waters. It is not doing what 2021 did for the warm start to winter. But rather closer to 2020.

https://i.imgur.com/a3k5sAc.png

https://i.imgur.com/L4IkBp1.png

https://i.imgur.com/WbML4nv.png

Call me crazy, but could we have an even harder winter than 2020-2021? We're still in a La Nina, it's weird that the La Nina Winters are harder than El Nino Winters.

I hope not tbh. The fun of February 2021 quickly wore off with all the other problems... I'm hoping for something more like last year except it being more front loaded. I hate waiting til February for a snowstorm. That was my big problem with last year.

One thing to note this will be our earliest freeze in at least 10 years. The last 2 years were deep into November

[Ralph's Weather]

I expect a cold early winter (mid Nov to mid Jan). Pacific SSTs are primed for a -EPO winter and the AO/NAO should stay because mostly. I don't expect much moisture though sadly though Pacific tropical weather will hopefully boost it for Fall.

[Iceresistance]

SOI still positive, but it's on a downward trend.

[Ralph's Weather]

Temps in E TX range from mid 30s to mid 40s with at least one sort reporting 32.

[bubba hotep]

The Euro and GFS show a potentially significant weather event across Texas in the 7-9 day range. CPC has noticed, but we know how great the models have been here lately!

[Iceresistance]

The Euro and GFS show a potentially significant weather event across Texas in the 7-9 day range. CPC has noticed, but we know how great the models have been here lately!

Bring it! We need the rainfall badly!

[cstrunk]

39F at my house this morning. 31F predicted for tomorrow morning. Back to the mid-80's by Friday into the weekend. That's not exactly enjoyable deer scouting weather...

Hopefully the rain next week pans out.

[Iceresistance]

Got down to 34°F this morning, coldest since April!

Lowest Wind Chill was 28°F

[Brent]

Tulsa officially at 32. We did it!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Also, analogs point towards a weaker SPV. A raging SPV has kept a lot of cold bottled up north over the past several winters. A weaker one should allow for more frequent cold dumps into the lower 48.

Another feature to watch is the NPAC waters. It is not doing what 2021 did for the warm start to winter. But rather closer to 2020.

https://i.imgur.com/a3k5sAc.png

https://i.imgur.com/L4IkBp1.png

https://i.imgur.com/WbML4nv.png

Call me crazy, but could we have an even harder winter than 2020-2021? We're still in a La Nina, it's weird that the La Nina Winters are harder than El Nino Winters.

IIRC, the overall winter was pretty average with Feb being drastically colder than normal. Overall I wasnt a big fan, other then Feb

[bubba hotep]

Collin County add to the Freeze Warning and FWD is now forecasting a record low of 37F at DFW.

[Iceresistance]

Collin County add to the Freeze Warning and FWD is now forecasting a record low of 37F at DFW.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfXcEx8VEAMHhsy?format=jpg&name=medium

Imagine DFW falls to being really close to freezing.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

You guys are getting freezing temps before I do just west of denver, so i dont want to hear anything when we get snow next week!

[Iceresistance]

You guys are getting freezing temps before I do just west of denver, so i dont want to hear anything when we get snow next week!

Unless I do!

[Ralph's Weather]

At 2:30am NE TX is between 28 and 36. Looks like the freeze warning will verify with many into the 20s by morning.