Texas Spring 2024

[aspen]

Fearing a washout on Monday I started reading up on the 2045 total eclipse. It follows a path similar to the 2017 eclipse - cuts from the northern reaches of California across the center of the country and hooks down through Florida. And the totality lasts even longer than this one, upwards of 6 minutes. The path of totality almost clips the northeast corner of Texas so you wouldn’t have to stray too far to see it. Of course… it’s 21 years away.

Calling it now, a hurricane is gonna hit Florida the day of the 2045 eclipse.

Models are pretty split on the eclipse day cloud forecast for Texas. The GFS, Euro, and some meso models show thick low clouds encroaching on Dallas while a layer of high-level clouds is present. The CMC, 3km NAM, and RGEM/RDPS show patchy to minimal low-level clouds and lack the sheet of high-level clouds. Dunno which camp is going to verify. Maybe it’ll be a blend of the two.

[HockeyTx82]

Just catching back up, has anyone posted anything about the Eclipse and cloud cover forecast for Monday?

This is a special one for sure, don't want to miss out.

[Brent]

Just had a severe thunderstorm warning on the north side of the city... That's better than Monday was for the metro

Oh and put me in too for the hurricane near Miami in 2045

As far as this eclipse goes it looks like it's a race against time whether the clouds really move in before the eclipse or not for DFW

[tolakram]

I posted my reasoning for trusting the GEM in the eclipse thread. NE Texas forecast seems to be holding.

[aspen]

I posted my reasoning for trusting the GEM in the eclipse thread. NE Texas forecast seems to be holding.

https://i.imgur.com/iOMkp0l.png

Can you link that post?

I really hope the RGEM holds, because it would be an excellent turn of events after most of the globals were calling for a bust in Dallas.

[tolakram]

I posted my reasoning for trusting the GEM in the eclipse thread. NE Texas forecast seems to be holding.

https://i.imgur.com/iOMkp0l.png

Can you link that post?

I really hope the RGEM holds, because it would be an excellent turn of events after most of the globals were calling for a bust in Dallas.

Watch out for the globals, especially the GFS. Both the Canadian and the Euro have a much better way of displaying high clouds.

Eclipse Post: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1#p3063031

[rwfromkansas]

It's funny, this is basically the only day I care if there are clouds. Usually I welcome them since it cools us down.

Edit to add: The SREF trend has been less clouds in the past day, and it was already pretty good. Same on Canadian.

Even the GFS is much improved for DFW.

I am tossing the NBM. It goes from basically no clouds to really thick. Utterly bizarre and not with the other models. I think it's BS.

I am hopeful we can see some of the sun through the clouds. If not, well, it will at least get dark. I can watch the sun zoomed in on the TV if needed.

[HockeyTx82]

Enhanced showing for for just NW of DFW now....

Fun few days ahead

[Brent]

Enhanced showing for for just NW of DFW now....

Fun few days ahead

I will never forget how after the 2017 eclipse Harvey showed up on the models. It was a very quick transition if I recall

[bubba hotep]

Enhanced showing for for just NW of DFW now....

Fun few days ahead

[aspen]

Even the GFS is starting to look better for DFW. Low-level clouds during eclipse time are just a hair south of Dallas on the 18z model. The 18z 3km NAM also shows patchy low-level clouds staying just south of the city too.

18z RGEM still shows low level clouds appearing in the morning, but collapsing until the skies are mostly clear by eclipse time.

I think there’s a chance of mostly clear skies for Dallas and north-central Texas. A stark contrast from a few days ago. High level clouds still seem likely, but they’ll probably be thin like what we had today.

[rwfromkansas]

Those severe risk areas are some of the biggest I can remember.

[Anti-freeze]

[Brent]

Well good luck everyone... Arkansas has the lowest probability for clouds of pretty much anyone in the entire country except Maine and yeah it doesn't look quite as grim even in DFW as it did. Considering where things were a few days ago I'd consider that a win

[aspen]

Looking good for DFW so far. Only thin upper-level clouds at the moment, and the latest GFS, CMC, 3km NAM, and RGEM runs are cloud-free at the low levels during eclipse time. Upper-level clouds seem like they’ll remain tolerable too.

[bubba hotep]

Sat shows a deck of low clouds moving north towards DFW. The question will be if that mixes out later this morning or if return flow locks it in.

[rwfromkansas]

If it were now, it would be perfect, but I see dark grey low clouds approaching closely from the south...

If they burn off, great.

[Fifty Rock]

I’m ready for this eclipse to be over with so we can go back to talking about the weather again.

Obviously, it's just me, but the eclipse is of no interest to me. It's just the randomness of celestial objects spinning around above us. The fact that Halley was able to accurately predict a path of totality in 1715 is more impressive to me than what will happen tomorrow lol

Totally agree, not really interested in this. I just can’t fathom wasting/spending hundreds if not $1,000 plus to get in the totality path. Not to mention the gridlock with traffic. I’ll take the 97% and free route at home. Some people are going to be upset after spending time and money only to have cloud’s laughing at them.

[gpsnowman]

Clouds are thick here. Bummer. .4 hoirs to showtime so I'm hopimg it clears.

[CaptinCrunch]

If it were now, it would be perfect, but I see dark grey low clouds approaching closely from the south...

If they burn off, great.

As moisture continues to stream north mid level clouds will continue to thicken. With a 60% chance of storms by 4pm more low and mid level clouds are inevitable.