Texas Spring 2025

[ElectricStorm]

New Day 1 expands the enhanced risk, now includes Tulsa and OKC metro. 10# tornado area remains confined to N OK/S KS but I could see that being expanded more later on

[mmmmsnouts]

But I will say this. All these nocturnal events are starting to grind my gears. I think we've had maybe 1 widespread severe outbreak occur in DFW during peak heating since I arrived in 2020.

So, so sick of it. The only time it ever storms around here is between 2-6 am when I’m trying to sleep.

[snownado]

With an average temp of 64*F, 2025 has been the 6th warmest March on record for DFW...

[wxman22]

Some needed rain is on the way.

[wxman22]

LOL The GFS has been showing snow here the last couple of runs. I doubt it happens but fun to look at though.

[wxman22]

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Amplified mid-level flow and deep moisture south of a quasi
stationary frontal zone will persist over much of the central and
eastern CONUS through the first half of the extended forecast
period. Models are in generally good agreement with the progression
of the pattern and the potential for severe storms. However, some
key differences, and days of preceding convection will modulate
potential in the coming days.

...Day4/Friday...
The broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to gradually
deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern
Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the
southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South
and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside
along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH
Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible
within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large
buoyancy/shear. The surface picture remains very complicated due to
multiple preceding days of convective potential.

...Day5/Saturday...
The primary mid-level impulse will begin to eject across northern
Mexico, eventually reaching the lower/middle MS Valley D5/Saturday.
Model differences begin to emerge on the latitudinal extent of the
warm sector owing to differences in the timing/structure of the
ejecting upper cyclone. Regardless, continued southerly low-level
flow will replenish deep moisture over much of the ArkLaTex and
Southeastern US. A surface low and cold front will gradually
intensify across the Mid South, likely focusing severe potential
ahead of it. The intensity of the severe risk will likely be tied to
ongoing storms from the prior Day 4, but supercells are possible
from east TX into the MS Valley and parts of the Southeast into
Saturday night.

[HockeyTx82]

So looking at the NAM simulated radar how much stock would one place on it?

If I am looking at it correctly looks like NTX is mostly missed all the way through the 4th?

[snownado]

So looking at the NAM simulated radar how much stock would one place on it?

If I am looking at it correctly looks like NTX is mostly missed all the way through the 4th?

I wouldn't expect a total shut out (it will rain), but could definitely see this busting relative to what's forecasted.

And that's typical for this time of year between the nature of convection (cellular + outflow-driven) and uncertainty with respect to where the front stalls.

[TomballEd]

So looking at the NAM simulated radar how much stock would one place on it?

If I am looking at it correctly looks like NTX is mostly missed all the way through the 4th?

I wouldn't expect a total shut out (it will rain), but could definitely see this busting relative to what's forecasted.

And that's typical for this time of year between the nature of convection (cellular + outflow-driven) and uncertainty with respect to where the front stalls.

NAM beyond two days isn't always accurate.

[Edwards Limestone]

Lots of stubborn cloud cover in that enhanced risk area

[rwfromkansas]

So looking at the NAM simulated radar how much stock would one place on it?

If I am looking at it correctly looks like NTX is mostly missed all the way through the 4th?

I am seeing a bust until Friday basically. I think there will be scattered stuff, but that's it.

We have seen this pattern all spring. It looks good and then backs off or goes north and east as we get closer.

[wxman22]

[wxman22]

SPC has upgraded North Texas to an Enhanced Risk for Hail.

...North Texas to the ArkLaTex...
Late Wednesday night (after 06Z Thu), initially elevated supercells
will likely develop along and north of the front across northwest
Texas. Hail will be the primary threat initially, but some damaging
wind threat will also exist from these elevated storms. As they move
east, and the front starts to move northward, these storms may
eventually become surface-based early Thursday morning along the Red
River from north-central Texas to the ArkLaTex.

[rwfromkansas]

After I posted that does look like maybe a bigger more widespread Wednesday night.

Of course, it's overnight again, not during the day.

I miss seeing those afternoon thunderheads.

[Quixotic]

Hail has cost me more money than anything including drought and freezes. I like lots of lightning and rain but they can keep the hail.

[Edwards Limestone]

cap seems to be holding in TX- some initialization but nothing can sustain yet

dust blowing from west TX/NM might be playing a role?

[wxman22]

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 91
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
500 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
South-Central Kansas
Western, Central, and Northeast Oklahoma
Northwest Texas

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 500 PM until Midnight
CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible

SUMMARY...Discrete supercell development appears possible as the
dryline impinges on a moderately moist airmass in place from
northwest TX into western and central OK. Overall environmental
conditions will support the potential for large to very large hail
(i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) and tornadoes with any storms
that do form. Strong wind gusts are possible as well.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 50 miles north northwest of
Bartlesville OK to 20 miles southeast of Wichita Falls TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

[Quixotic]

Cell near Enid should probably elicit a warning.

[Quixotic]

Dang I’m good.

[txtwister78]

Drylines are inefficient makers of thunderstorms by themselves and so despite the large watch outline and the broad area of severe potential highlighted by SPC, looks like this event tonight will remain extremely isolated and confined mostly to Central/Northern Oklahoma where forcing is a little better up there. One storm going up fast SW of Enid looks like it will go severe quick. Probably the one to watch.

Further south cap looks stout and so most models keep DFW metro dry but like we found our further south yesterday, if you manage to get a storm to fire with these parameters in place, it may go severe quickly so highly conditional threat to be sure, but always best to monitor radar on days like this.

Obviously better odds once the front gets involved later in the week.