Florida Weather

[JonathanBelles]

Right at 90 degrees right now. If storms pop up to the east of here, its going to be very hot when the storms get here.

[NDG]

The front broke the cap, and provided the moisture. All the state did was add in the heat. Water temps are not warm enough quite yet everywhere. I dont think this is true rainy season weather. The mechanisms are right, but the mechanics are not.

Water temps, IMO, do not have that much to do with it, which right they are warm enough anyway. Personally I think that water temps like they are right now are more effective in creating a strong seabreeze front to lift warm humid air inland to lift the air to create thunderstorms.
I do agree that a true rainy season in the Florida peninsula no frontal trough is located near us, but we do not have a ridge on top of us, is usually to our north, far enough from us for thunderstorms to form with daytime heating combined with the seabreeze fronts. But most rainy seasons this early start with a frontal trough if warm enough & humid enough surface wx is already present.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It does feel really warm right now.

Yesterday's Clouds:




TODAY:
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... m+Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
316 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2009

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-051-132030-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-
316 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2009

.NOW...
THROUGH 430 PM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FROM CHIEFLAND TO WEEKI WACHEE. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARDS HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING,
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS AS
THE STORMS INTENSIFY. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS. THE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST AT 5 MPH.

$$


BARRON


Of HUGE importance is the location of the west coast seabreeze:
Right now it is still just west of me, but over eastern Pinellas...once
it crosses me/ Eastern-most downtown Saint Pete is about my longitudinal line...
things will get really interesting...
I believe the sea breeze has passed through your location Fact789, but I am not sure...
but if so...then your rain chance just went up
Sea breeze is moving really slowly though, I've been watching the clouds
"marking" it sit not more than a few miles west of me for a couple hours...

[JonathanBelles]

Water temps have a direct relationship to the sea breezes. Look at the meteorology. The heat of the land rises creating a low pressure and the cool-er SST's replace the rising air via wind (the sea breeze). Although I said cooler SST's...the warmer the wind, the easier it is for the air to rise. If the SSTs are too cool, there will be no lift at the collision.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Current SST is 83*F, if I recall correctly...hopefully that can
moisten things up really well combined with the frontal influence

[JonathanBelles]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0813
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...W CENTRAL FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 131907Z - 132000Z

THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP OVER WRN PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IS LOW...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A WW.

GENERALLY WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE REGIME RESIDES ACROSS THE SERN CONUS
INTO THE FL PENINSULA...RESULTING IN NEGLIGIBLE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...FAVORING UNORGANIZED MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
IS OCCURRING OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S AND LOW
90S. THIS HEATING...COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
/SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S/...YIELDS MLCAPE VALUES
AOA 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE AIDING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 9.5 C PER KM
BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS/. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE
INSTABILITY /AND THUS POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION
LOADING ALOFT/ AND THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONGER UPDRAFT CORES.

..GARNER.. 05/13/2009

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Breezy west wind- seabreeze just moved through...a medium
sized cumulus cloud over the bay along a thin line of cumulus
clouds is visible...

[psyclone]

it looks like the east coast boundary is cruising westward through polk county. meanwhile the west coast seabreeze has moved east into hillsborough. down south those boundaries are closer and will collide first in the arcadia/wauchula region. if things fire down there then i would expect some intense storms to fire in hillsborough east of I-75 soon thereafter. whether any of this makes to parched pinellas remains to be seen. i got nothing yesterday. SVR now for citrus and TOR for southern lee. Heads up Sanibel, you may get some rain at the very least.

[Dave]

LEE FL-
456 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT FOR SOUTHERN
LEE COUNTY...

AT 453 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. LOCATED NEAR BONITA SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 20 MPH.

SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD...AND BETWEEN NICKLE TO
QUARTER SIZE HAIL WITH THIS STORM.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BONITA SPRINGS.
ESTERO.
FORT MYERS VILLAS.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Pinellas- Some hope:






More coming soon

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Collision boundaries right on top of me:

[JonathanBelles]

I've been outside watching it. Seemed like there was a ton more outflow then there was inflow, along with a silence in thunder. Hopes are still there.

[JonathanBelles]

Wunderground radar showing TVS near Temple Terrace!!

[JonathanBelles]

That TVS has turned into a TOR Warning just NE of Tampa, just barely outside of DT Tampa. Includes YBor and Temple Terrace. Tornado spotted on or near I-4!!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Strong gust of wind just now...easily 30-35 mph


A strong outflow boundary moving over the Bay...and hitting the storm
cloud and rain shaft Pictured here from behind...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The cloud bottom is absolutely incredible along the bay
I will post the pics shortly

[JonathanBelles]

I cant really see a whole lot from here. Just too far from the cell.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is why I love stormchasing (from home right now- as soon as I can
afford a car I will travel farther).
Monitor weather conditions, predict storms, watch storms, storm
dynamics, take pictures, experience storms WHOOHOO!! I need to join the
next vortex trip.

MacDill: E 25 G 49 mph
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... &map.y=146
WILD BABY WILD! (Of Course I hope nobody gets hurt)

Heavy Rain/Wind Right Now
E 33 G 42 mph- Mouth of Tampa Bay:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MCCUF1
A lot of rain is falling.

[NDG]

Water temps have a direct relationship to the sea breezes. Look at the meteorology. The heat of the land rises creating a low pressure and the cool-er SST's replace the rising air via wind (the sea breeze). Although I said cooler SST's...the warmer the wind, the easier it is for the air to rise. If the SSTs are too cool, there will be no lift at the collision.

OK, I agree, but with your earlier statement that current SSTs are not warm enough is not true. They are warm enough, even 70s are more than warm enough as long as there is warm & humid air inland to make rise and form storms, as long as there is no strong cap of course,

A sea-breeze front is a weather front created by a sea-breeze, also known as a convergence zone. The cold air from the sea meets the warmer air from the land and creates a boundary like a shallow cold front....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_breeze

[HURAKAN]

Accuweather.