Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
PRC001-009-019-035-039-041-043-045-047-057-059-073-075-107-111-113-
123-133-141-149-102045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
351 PM AST MON MAY 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM AST FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...CIDRA...COAMO...CAYEY...COROZAL...COMERIO...AIBONITO...
BARRANQUITAS...JAYUYA...ADJUNTAS...OROCOVIS...UTUADO...
VILLALBA...GUAYANILLA...GUAYAMA...JUANA DIAZ...PONCE...
SALINAS...SANTA ISABEL AND PENUELAS

AT 346 PM AST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTION OF THESE
MUNICIPALITIES AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH. SOME OF THESE STORMS
ARE PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 35 MPH OR MORE AT LEAST UNTIL
445 PM AST.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
417 PM AST MON MAY 10 2010

PRC009-019-043-045-107-102315-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0107.100510T2017Z-100510T2315Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COAMO PR-COMERIO PR-AIBONITO PR-BARRANQUITAS PR-OROCOVIS PR-
417 PM AST MON MAY 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COAMO...COMERIO...AIBONITO...BARRANQUITAS AND OROCOVIS

* UNTIL 715 PM AST

* AT 415 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST
THOUGH 7:15 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 PM AST MON MAY 10 2010

PRC001-003-011-013-081-083-099-131-141-110000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0108.100510T2113Z-100511T0000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ADJUNTAS PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-UTUADO PR-AGUADA PR-
LAS MARIAS PR-LARES PR-ANASCO PR-ARECIBO PR-
513 PM AST MON MAY 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ADJUNTAS...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...UTUADO...AGUADA...LAS
MARIAS...LARES...ANASCO AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 800 PM AST

* AT 501 PM AST...ALTHOUGH THE RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO HAD DISSIPATED OR MOVED AWAY...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...ESPECIALLY OVER UTUADO. EMERGENCY OFFICIAL OF UTUADO REPORTED
ROAD 111 FLOODED AND A FEW LANDSLIDES OCCURRED OVER THE LAST HOURS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. EXPECT SOME RAPID RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
THE AREA INCLUDING THE RIO GRANDE DE ARECIBO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS RIVER.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
617 PM AST MON MAY 10 2010

PRC025-029-035-041-063-069-077-085-103-129-110015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0109.100510T2217Z-100511T0015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAGUAS PR-CIDRA PR-CAYEY PR-JUNCOS PR-GURABO PR-SAN LORENZO PR-
LAS PIEDRAS PR-NAGUABO PR-CANOVANAS PR-HUMACAO PR-
617 PM AST MON MAY 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...CIDRA...CAYEY...JUNCOS...GURABO...SAN LORENZO...LAS
PIEDRAS...NAGUABO...CANOVANAS AND HUMACAO

* UNTIL 815 PM AST

* AT 605 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO REDEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS. SO
FAR THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN AN INCH TO TWO INCHES HAD FALLEN IN THESE AREAS...AND
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AT LEAST UNTIL 815 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND. MUDSLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1043 PM AST MON MAY 10 2010

.UPDATE...
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION...COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AS WELL AS A SURFACE TROUGH...GIVE WAY TO
EXPLOSIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS FOCUSED OVER
PUERTO RICO...PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ALSO RECEIVED PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TIME TO TIME. THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS WELL AS WELL AND MUDSLIDES
AND SIGNIFICANT DEBRIS FLOW...WHICH WERE REPORTED IN AND AROUND PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. HOWEVER THE
ACTIVITY OVER LAND SLOWLY BEGAN TO DIMINISH AND DISSIPATE DURING THE
LATE EVENING HOURS.

THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...AND
TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH THIS TROUGH WILL STILL INFLUENCE THE LOCAL
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MID TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
TO BE LESS...AS THE MID/UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EAST
OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...EXPECT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ONCE AGAIN. MADE SOME MINOR
ALTERATIONS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT OVERALL LONG TERM GRIDS LOOKED GOOD FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS TJBQ...TIST AND TISX DUE TO PASSING SHOWERS. LATEST TJSJ
SOUNDING AT 11/00Z INDICATED WINDS FROM EAST TO NORTHEAST BACKING
WITH HEIGHT WITH SPEEDS UP TO 18 KNOTS BTW SFC TO 15 KFT.

[tropicana]

Regional Weather Summary
MON MAY 10 2010

Monday's Highs and rain (if any)

Piarco, C. Trinidad 34.9C 95F 0.1mm
Couva, C. Trinidad 35.4C 95F 14.5mm
Pointe-a-Pierre, SW Trinidad 32.3C 90F 4.1mm
Crown Point, Tobago 31.8C 89F

Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.7C 89F
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 31.5C 89F 1.9mm
Hewannora, St Lucia 31.8C 89F
Vigie, St Lucia 32.3C 90F 0.6mm

Melville Hall, Dominica 30.5C 87F 5.5mm
Canefield, Dominica 31.5C 89F 4.8mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 31.9C 90F 0.2mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 31.0C 88F trace

Golden Rock, St Kitts 30.5C 87F 7.9mm
VC Bird, Antigua 30.3C 86F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 30.6C 87F 7.0mm

Norman Manley, Jamaica 33.3C 92F
Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 31.1C 88F
Havana, Cuba 32.3C 90F

Nassau, Bahamas 30.3C 86F
Hamilton, Bermuda 21.0C 69F 1.8mm

Hato, Curacao 32.6C 91F
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 31.4C 88F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 33.7C 93F

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Variable conditions for today with another diurnal heating activity.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
354 AM AST TUE MAY 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY EAST NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND ISOLATED QUICK
PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TODAY...HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND INCREASE
THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE PW HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS...STILL EXPECT AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS...TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FAST
MOVING...DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...SOME URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. OVERALL...EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE
DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT
11/11Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN OFF SHORE
WATERS...IN SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA. THEN...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
INCLUDING TJMZ AND POSSIBLY THE TJPS VICINITY...AFTER 11/17Z OR
11/18Z AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST 11/22Z...IN SCATTERED SHRA AND
ISOLATED TSRA.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

Looking ahead to next weekend,it looks like a wet one.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
229 PM AST TUE MAY 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED SATES SEABOARD TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A BREEZY
EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DECREASE IN
PW VALUES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT MAINTAINING PW VALUES IN THE
ORDER OF 1.5 INCHES DURING THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE AVAILABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS...TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. IN FACT...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR
OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS...WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE EVENING
HOURS. WITH THE SOILS ALREADY SATURATED...THE POSSIBILITY OF AREAS
OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SEABOARD TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

LOOKING AHEAD...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SURGE OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ITCZ/EQUATORIAL TROUGH...WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE FA BY THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL
WATERS. BY THAT TIME...THE PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2.5
INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR...WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS...INCLUDING TJMZ AND TJPS DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST 11/22Z...IN SCATTERED SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA. AFTER 11/22Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1047 PM AST TUE MAY 11 2010

.UPDATE...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE
UNITED STATES...CONTINUED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND WILL AID IN TIGHTENING THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR HAS
ALREADY SUGGESTED THE INCREASED THE EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. THE MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTH EASTERLIES WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO PUSH PATCHES OF
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER INLAND ALONG THE NORTH COASTAL
AREAS OF THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THEREFORE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT LATE EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR THE LONG TERM...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST AN OVERALL
DECREASE IN PWAT VALUES ACROSS REGION AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WITH SIGNIFICANT INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UP TO
2.0 INCHES OR MORE WITH THE APPROACH OF EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS AND
WIND SURGES NOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING
THE LATTER PAST OF THE WEEK AS ITCZ MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE SAME TIME...AND
THIS WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN. THEREFORE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PACKAGE...BUT WILL NEED FURTHER ALTERATIONS AND FINE TUNING WITH
TIME. FOR WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT
THE EXPECTED WIND FLOW ...SHOULD STEER ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS UNTIL EARLY MORNING HOURS. INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ...TIST AND TISX IN PASSING
SHRA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all. The forecast for a rainy period this weekend stands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 AM AST WED MAY 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A
FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN INTO NEXT WEEK. A
CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS ON FRI AND
PASS TO THE NORTH OF PR DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TODAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST OF THE NEXT SEVEN AT LEAST
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS PWAT IS FCST TO BOTTOM OUT
NEAR 1.35 INCHES LATER TODAY. EVEN SO...GUSTY WINDS AND SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE ISOLD-SCT SHRA.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
WINDS PICKUP AND HELP ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL FAVOR
FAST MOVING NOCTURNAL SHRAS BUT WITH SOME TRAINING ACROSS THE ERN
THIRD AND ALG THE NORTH COAST OF PR. SFC PATTERN WILL REMAIN PRETTY
MUCH THE SAME THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FRESH TRADES AND EVEN STRONG
TRADES AT TIMES. THIS WILL LIMIT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND HEAVILY FAVOR SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR BOTH
DAY AND NIGHT. MOISTURE BECOMES DEEPER BY THE WEEKEND WITH PWAT
VALUES RISING OVER 2.0 INCHES OR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. A S/W TROUGH AT H25 WILL DIG DOWN LATE THU INTO FRI ACROSS
TURKS AND CAICOS. LATEST EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS SHOW SIMILAR
EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH INDICATING DEVELOPMENT INTO A CUTOFF LOW
DURING THE WEEKEND BUT SHOW GREAT DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED/TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE WITH THE GFS FASTER BY ALMOST A DAY TAKING IT TO THE
NORTH OF PR SAT WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL ON SUN. HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF
CONFIDENCE THAT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS ERN PR EITHER FRI OR SAT. GIVEN THE FLASHY NATURE OF
ERN PR AND THE INCREASINGLY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THIS AREA BELIEVE
A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING EVENT APPEARS ON TAP FOR ERN PR TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... INCLUDING
TJMZ AND POSSIBLY THE TJPS VICINITY...AFTER 12/17Z AND LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST 12/22Z...IN SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA.
LATEST 12/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 20
KTS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 15K FEET.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT TONIGHT ACROSS OFFSHORE
ATLC/CARIBBEAN WATERS IN EAST GENERATED WIND WAVES.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1115 AM AST WED MAY 12 2010

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS THIS
MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE AGAIN WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS TO
INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED BY TOMORROW...INCREASING AGAIN THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE WET TREND WILL PREVAIL
AT LEAST UNTIL THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR...
WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING TJMZ AND
POSSIBLY THE TJPS VICINITY...AFTER 12/17Z AND LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST 12/22Z...IN SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST WED MAY 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERATED BY A HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS WEATHER SCENARIO
WILL MAINTAIN A FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS GENERATED
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AT AROUND SUNSET OR MOVE OVER THE MONA
PASSAGE.

THE MAJOR FEATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE ON MOISTURE AND INCREASING WINDS AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. INCREASING WINDS WILL PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO GENERATING SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL AFTERNOON EXPECT LOCAL EFFECTS TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL ENHANCED THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LOCAL TAF
SITES DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
INCLUDING TJMZ AND TJPS...UNTIL 12/22Z...IN SCATTERED SHRA AND
ISOLATED TSRA. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TAF SITES AFTER 13/06...INDUCING MORE PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES. LATEST 12/12 TJSJ SOUNDING
SHOWED EAST NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SURFACE UP
TO 20K FEET.


&&

.MARINE...INCREASING WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS
ALL LOCAL WATERS. DANGEROUS CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE BETWEEN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
222 PM AST WED MAY 12 2010

PRC023-067-079-093-097-121-125-153-122115-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0111.100512T1822Z-100512T2115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HORMIGUEROS PR-MARICAO PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-YAUCO PR-
CABO ROJO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-LAJAS PR-
222 PM AST WED MAY 12 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HORMIGUEROS...MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...YAUCO...
CABO ROJO...MAYAGUEZ AND LAJAS

* UNTIL 515 PM AST

* AT 215 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT
LEAST THOUGH 515 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1037 PM AST WED MAY 12 2010

.UPDATE...SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...CENTRAL INTERIOR...AND WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. DUE TO SATURATED SOILS...MAINLY OVER THE MUNICIPALITY
OF UTUADO...AND SURROUNDING MUNICIPALITIES...AN URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 100 AM
AST THURSDAY. SEVERAL MUDSLIDES HAVE BEEN REPORTED MAINLY OVER THE
MUNICIPALITY OF UTUADO. IN TERM OF SHORT AND LONG TERM
FORECAST...MADE SOME CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS TO ADJUST IT WITH
CURRENT MODEL DATA.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED PASSING SHRA AND VCSH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MOST OF THE TAF SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ...TIST AND
TISX IN PASSING SHRA...WITH VISIBILITIES BTW 5 TO 6 SM WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. LATEST TJSJ
SOUNDING AT 13/00Z INDICATED WINDS MAINLY FROM EAST NORTHEAST WITH
SPEEDS UP TO 22 KNOTS BTW SFC TO 15 KFT. SFC WINDS ACROSS TAF SITES
WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM NORTHEAST BTW 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all. Here comes the rainy period for the Eastern Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
405 AM AST THU MAY 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SFC RIDGE ALONG 30N WILL MAINTAIN A FRESH TRADE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEXT 24 HRS AND PASS
TO THE NORTH OF PR SAT NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 72 HRS TO CONTINUE TO FAVOR FAST MOVING SHRAS UNDER A 20-KT
EASTERLY FLOW. STILL NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE FLOODING PROBLEMS
YET BUT THIS WILL DEFINITELY CHANGE AS THE WEEKEND NEARS.

AS H25 TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT THIS WILL PULL
DEEPER MOISTURE NWD INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM SOUTH AMERICA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT VALUES RISING TO NEAR 2.25 INCHES WHICH IS
TWO+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND K INDICES PEAKING AROUND
35. AS H25 TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT IMPROVING JET DYNAMICS/INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN SVRL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PR. GIVEN INCREASINGLY SATURATED SOILS
AND ABOVE NORMAL STREAM/RIVER FLOW AM BECOMING INCREASINGLY
CONFIDENT IN A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING EVENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
ERN PR THIS WEEKEND. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
FROM LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT EVENING. TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST SUN WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP TO START THE NEW
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SCATTERED PASSING SHRA AND VCSH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. THEREFORE...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AFTER 13/17Z AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST 13/22Z. LATEST 13/00Z TJSJ
SOUNDING SHOWED EAST NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 25 KTS FROM THE
SURFACE UP TO 15K FEET. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL TAF SITES AFTER 14/00Z...INDUCING MORE PERIODS OF MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...A 0214Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED SOLID 20-KT WINDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS VERIFYING SCA CONDITIONS AND BUOY 41043 HAS INDICATED
SEAS AS HIGH AS 2.5 METERS. SVRL SHIP REPORTS HAVE REPORTED SEAS
BETWEEN 1.5-2 METERS. ACCORDING TO LATEST NAH MODELS SEAS WILL PEAK
AROUND 8 FT THU EVENING IN EAST GENERATED WIND WAVES AND AROUND 7 FT
THU AFTERNOON-EVENING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

[cycloneye]

I hope that this rain event that is expected for this weekend aliviates the drought conditions that some of the islands in the Eastern Caribbean have been experiencing for the past few months.

[Gustywind]

I hope that this rain event that is expected for this weekend aliviates the drought conditions that some of the islands in the Eastern Caribbean have been experiencing for the past few months.

Absolutely Luis, i hope that too Let's once again keep our fingers crossed .

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1109 AM AST THU MAY 13 2010

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
SURROUNDING WATERS THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS THE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...INCREASING EVEN MORE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. SOME CHANGES WERE DONE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER...TYPE OF
PCPN AND POPS IN SEVERAL ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR...WEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
TJMZ...TJBQ AND POSSIBLY TJPS...AFTER 13/17Z AND LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST 13/22Z...IN SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST THU MAY 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 30N WILL MAINTAIN A FRESH TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE WINDWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AND
PASS TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION... SCATTED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS
GENERATED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES. A CU
LINE DEVELOPED OVER EL YUNQUE AFFECTING THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN
AREA AND THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

ADDITIONAL INCREASE ON MOISTURE IS FORECAST BY THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS MOISTURE INFLUX TO
BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WILL WITH FAVORABLE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TO GENERATE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAINLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE INTERIOR...WEST AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL 13/22Z.
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...SCATTERED PASSING SHRA AND VCSH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AFTER 14/17Z AND LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST 14/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AS
FRESH WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DECREASE AND SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC
OF SHORE WATERS AND FOR THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATER
TONIGHT.