Florida Weather

[NDG]

Too funny, they went back all the to May 11th as the official start, while for the last couple of days some were arguing that it had not started yet.

May 11th:

[jinftl]

Yep, I stand corrected...the rainy season is upon us. I think it is natural to be biased by the weather you are experiencing...obviously areas that have been seeing daily thunderstorms (mainly interior and western parts of florida), it clearly is 'rainy'. Compare that to areas that have seen little to no rain this month....a bit tougher sell that the rainy season has begun.

For example, Miami (airport) has seen 0.01" of rain since May 1....that includes 4 days of the 'rainy season'.

May not rain at one particular spot each day during rainy season, but it is probably raining somewhere in florida each day.

Extended outlook for south florida not looking like a clearcut forecast at all....overall, not as wet as prior forecasts for the weekend (esp east coast areas) models diverging pretty dramatically next week, ranging from a pattern of subsidence with limited rain to pwat over 2" and lots of convection...

DISCUSSION...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT), BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE GFS, NAM AND ECMWF ARE ALL NOW
SHOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC. IN FACT, NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH CHANGE IN THE CURRENT PATTERN OVER THE
WEEKEND SO LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE NIGHT/MORNING
ACTIVITY ALONG THE EAST COAST AND AFTERNOON/EVENING VARIETY
INTERIOR AND ALONG THE WEST COAST.

IN THE EXTENDED, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MAJOR TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND THEN CUTTING OFF A LOW AT THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL PENINSULA. THE
12Z GFS RUN CUTS THE LOW OFF IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN DRIFTS IT SW INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF INTO LATE WEEK
PUTTING S FL IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PWAT APPROACHING TWO
INCHES. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW CUTTING OFF OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY TUESDAY AND THEN DRIFTING IT TO JUST OFF
THE E CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD
PLACE S FL MORE UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THE LOW. LOOKING AT
THE 00Z ENSEMBLE NUMBERS, POP GUIDANCE IS ANYWHERE FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LIKELY. SO AT THIS TIME, WILL LEAVE EXTENDED AS IS AND
WAIT FOR SOME MORE CONSISTENCY.

[NDG]

I know that their disco went out before Friday's 12z euro came out, but I wonder why mfl's Friday afternoon afd long range disco went by Thurday's 12z euro run instead of Thurday's evening 00z.



Here's Thurday night's 00z run, end of the week forecast:



Here's Friday's 12z run, end of next week forecast, keeps S FL plenty wet by the end of next week:

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Tornadoes Possible near the coast today:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1


.DISCUSSION...LATEST ETA GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME 50 POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...AND A STRIP OF 60 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST FROM TAMPA DOWN
TO COASTAL LEE COUNTY. GFS REMAIN MUCH CONSERVATIVE WITH 40 POPS
ALONG THE SAME STRIP FOR THE 00Z/12HR FORECAST. BUT CONSIDERING THE
TREND OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...ETA SOLUTION COULD EASILY VERIFY
THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS...12Z TBW SOUNDING CAME OUT VERY MUCH
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER FROM WHAT WE SAW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
PW OF 1.66 INCHES...LI OF -7...CONVC T OF 79F AND CAPE ABOVE 3K
SUGGEST GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW WELL
IN PLACE...STRONGEST CELLS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL STRIP. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE ALL
INHERITED POPS BY 10 PERCENT WHICH BASICALLY DEPICTS ETAS SCENARIO
FOR TODAY.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE REST
OF THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST STORMS CLUSTERING NEAR THE COASTLINE.
SOUNDING SRH MAY ALSO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM ROTATION...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE STRONGEST CELLS.

[JonathanBelles]

Lots of clouds building up and going to my north, but nothing here yet.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Huge Thunderstorm Clouds NE of me:

[psyclone]

very cool boundary collision to the east of here. had some showers earlier today but nothing heavy. convection has struggled today so it remains to be seen if this can hold together but the storms are booking it across the bay so some areas of pinellas are going to get dumped on. distant thunder here now. incidentally, the best looking storm is in southern sarasota county.

[psyclone]

very heavy rain dumping here. this is the first really heavy rain in a month so my number has finally popped. bring on rainy season '09!

[JonathanBelles]

Getting some thunder now.

[psyclone]

St Pete is about to get rocked if that cell crossing the bay holds together. lots of lightning in that one.

[JonathanBelles]

Lots of lightning, and very stagnant outside. Kind of eerie.

[JonathanBelles]

Lightning visible here ~ every 10 seconds

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Heavy Rain here in northeast Saint Petersburg...not constant heavy
rain...but moderate rain with periodic heavy bursts.
Not much wind.

[JonathanBelles]

That may change...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
909 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

FLZ050-170200-
PINELLAS-
909 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A THUNDERSTORM...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT SEMINOLE...PINELLAS PARK...
LEALMAN AND LARGO...UNTIL 1000 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SOME
DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND
A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE
PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO
AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 2803 8283 2796 8269 2795 8271 2790 8263
2790 8256 2787 8256 2786 8259 2781 8259
2778 8262 2776 8262 2779 8281 2782 8284
2791 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 116DEG 6KT 2782 8257

$$

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Barely a drizzle now. But there was a period of heavy downpours
mixed with moderate downpours. Wind around 20-25 mph at most.

[JonathanBelles]

Its raining here again. Odd to have rain at 1am.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the upcoming week here in South Florida, will be the best chances of good rain we have had in a long time with an 80% chance on Mon.

We can thank a developing area of low pressure just south of Cuba that should get close enough to pull in some deep moisture across the region.

This rain event was well-advertised on this forum as long as ago as 7 days go, and it looks like it will come to fruition.

[psyclone]

Looks like a very wet week coming up with drought denting or busting rains. in the immediate future, a deep southeast flow and plenty of juice interacting with the seabreeze this evening should result in another west coast boomer fest this evening. so, beachgoers, mariners and sunset fans, watch your back!

[jinftl]

More (or continued) uncertainty could really effect who sees how much rain and when....but at least rain is still forecast...just how heavy and widespread is up for debate still...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
210 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE DILEMMA CONTINUES AS TO JUST WHAT KIND OF
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT AS STRONG SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES, A MID LEVEL LOW WILL GET CUT OFF ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE TROUGH WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST
BUT THEY ALL CONTINUE TO DISAGREE AS TO LOCATION AND TIMING OF
SUCH FEATURES. CURRENTLY, A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO BE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA WITH THE MODELS INITIALIZING THIS QUITE
WELL. LOOKING AT SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS, THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE A TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO, THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER CUBA WILL GET ABSORBED AND IT IS
THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT THE MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
FROM WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE FASTEST IN ITS DEVELOPMENT AND THE
ECMWF THE FARTHEST TO THE WEST.

ONE THING IS NEARLY CERTAIN, NO MATTER WHERE THE MID/SURFACE LOWS END UP BEING LOCATED,
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DUE TO THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
ANOTHER ISSUE IS THAT MET GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OUTPERFORMING MAV
GUIDANCE IN POPS FOR THE PAST FEW PERIODS. BUT CONSIDERING THE NAM
SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM TOO QUICKLY, IS THIS TREND GOING
TO END WITH THIS CYCLE?

ALL OF THIS BEING SAID, IT STILL REMAINS A
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR RAINFALL TOTALS NOT TO
MENTION THE LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. THE OTHER FACTOR IS
THE WIND DIRECTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL TURNS OUT MORE
CORRECT, THE GFS AND NAM FOR LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE
180 DEGREES APART JUST DUE TO THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE
LOW. SO IT APPEARS AT THIS POINT THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS GO
STATUS QUO AND CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Windy with a brief downpour last hour here.