Texas Spring-2015

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Texas Snowman
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#461 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Apr 22, 2015 11:40 am

The 1997 Jarrell/Central Texas outbreak also wasn't a "classic" outbreak kind of day.

EDIT: :darrow: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Centr ... o_outbreak

"In the early morning hours of May 27, a large mesoscale convective complex developed over Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas. A "gravity wave" or outflow boundary was generated by this system and stalled out over Central Texas. This was oriented from the northeast to the southwest, causing the movement of the supercells later on to be to the southwest, along with most of the tornadoes, which is extremely unusual. Also unusual on this day was the low wind shear and extreme instability."

In the six-hour outbreak, there were 20 confirmed tornadoes including three F3s, one F4 and the Jarrell F5. And 28 deaths with the 27 in Jarrell and one in Lakeway (Travis County).

The Jarrell tornado was EXTREMELY violent - an entire subdivision was wiped off the earth, bodies were hard to distinguish between human and cattle, a huge amount of pavement was ripped from the earth, as much as 18-inches of vegetation and soil was pulled up, vehicles were pulverized into small bits (some known vehicles were never found), trees were debarked, etc. Some observers think that was one of the most violent tornadoes ever recorded.

And it happened on a non-classic kind of day.
Last edited by Texas Snowman on Wed Apr 22, 2015 11:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#462 Postby Ntxw » Wed Apr 22, 2015 11:41 am

HRRR initiates storms along the I-20 corridor this afternoon. Oklahoma complex collapsed coming into North Texas, there is a outflow boundary hung up in the northern counties
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Re:

#463 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Apr 22, 2015 11:45 am

Ntxw wrote:HRRR initiates storms along the I-20 corridor this afternoon. Oklahoma complex collapsed coming into North Texas, there is a outflow boundary hung up in the northern counties


The timing is of great concern. My greatest fear (besides having another killer F5 come through Grayson County like the May 1896 tornado that killed 73 near/in Sherman) is having a strong tornado (or tornadoes) come through DFW during the afternoon/evening rush hour.
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#464 Postby TarrantWx » Wed Apr 22, 2015 11:47 am

I hate to be "that guy" but this is one of those days where you just get the feeling that something is going to happen, ya know? Model forecasts aside, it's just a gut feeling. I hope I'm wrong, I really do.
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#465 Postby gboudx » Wed Apr 22, 2015 11:48 am

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Re:

#466 Postby TarrantWx » Wed Apr 22, 2015 11:49 am



I believe that was an update from yesterday afternoon
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#467 Postby gboudx » Wed Apr 22, 2015 11:51 am

Weird that they posted on their website today as well.
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Re:

#468 Postby SouthernMet » Wed Apr 22, 2015 11:51 am

TarrantWx wrote:I hate to be "that guy" but this is one of those days where you just get the feeling that something is going to happen, ya know? Model forecasts aside, it's just a gut feeling. I hope I'm wrong, I really do.


I'm with you on this.

Edit : I think friday really needs to be watched too.
Last edited by SouthernMet on Wed Apr 22, 2015 12:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#469 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Apr 22, 2015 11:58 am

:uarrow: Yeah, I didn't want to throw out the gut feeling comment, but for two or three days, I've felt uneasy about this day.

Sure hope I'm wrong.
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Re: Texas Spring-2015

#470 Postby TexasStorm » Wed Apr 22, 2015 11:59 am

If the cloud cover sticks around that could limit the amount of instability. Looking at the latest visible satellite I am not sure the cloud cover is going anywhere. There is a clearing up in Oklahoma but I don't see the sun coming back out in DFW.
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Re: Texas Spring-2015

#471 Postby TarrantWx » Wed Apr 22, 2015 12:01 pm

TexasStorm wrote:If the cloud cover sticks around that could limit the amount of instability. Looking at the latest visible satellite I am not sure the cloud cover is going anywhere. There is a clearing up in Oklahoma but I don't see the sun coming back out in DFW.


I agree with you but I think the clouds are thinning out and they've already cleared to the west where I would expect initiation to take place. Also concerning about the visible satellite is the OFB seems to have stalled in the worst possible place.
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Re: Texas Spring-2015

#472 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Apr 22, 2015 12:04 pm

TexasStorm wrote:If the cloud cover sticks around that could limit the amount of instability. Looking at the latest visible satellite I am not sure the cloud cover is going anywhere. There is a clearing up in Oklahoma but I don't see the sun coming back out in DFW.


Could be, but to me, with a few exceptions, the cloud deck doesn't look very thick.

Image
Last edited by Texas Snowman on Wed Apr 22, 2015 12:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#473 Postby dhweather » Wed Apr 22, 2015 12:04 pm

gboudx wrote::uarrow: IIRC that was also the tornado that tracked from Forney across Kaufman, into Rockwall county and hit parts of Royse City, Fate and Greenville. Days later we went for a ride along Hwy 276 and saw debris scattered all over the place.


That is exactly right. My house was hit with softball sized hail that with that same cell.
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Re:

#474 Postby dhweather » Wed Apr 22, 2015 12:09 pm

gboudx wrote:Weird that they posted on their website today as well.


They have been having lots of trouble with their website in the last couple of days.
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Re: Re:

#475 Postby dhweather » Wed Apr 22, 2015 12:10 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:
Ntxw wrote:HRRR initiates storms along the I-20 corridor this afternoon. Oklahoma complex collapsed coming into North Texas, there is a outflow boundary hung up in the northern counties


The timing is of great concern. My greatest fear (besides having another killer F5 come through Grayson County like the May 1896 tornado that killed 73 near/in Sherman) is having a strong tornado (or tornadoes) come through DFW during the afternoon/evening rush hour.


And you know it is just a matter of time. Maybe today, maybe 50 years from today, but it will happen.
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#476 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Apr 22, 2015 12:12 pm

Supercell down in South Texas.

And there's a tornado watch up there, issued at 11:15:

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 94
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

TORNADO WATCH 94 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC007-025-057-131-175-249-273-297-311-355-391-409-469-222200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0094.150422T1615Z-150422T2200Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARANSAS BEE CALHOUN
DUVAL GOLIAD JIM WELLS
KLEBERG LIVE OAK MCMULLEN
NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO
VICTORIA
$$
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#477 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Apr 22, 2015 12:14 pm

:uarrow: Concerning the above...

Image
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0417
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 94...

VALID 221707Z - 221830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 94 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SMALL AREA NEAR AND WEST OF THE CORPUS CHRISTI VICINITY
MAY HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT OF A TORNADO DEVELOPING.

DISCUSSION...THE SUPERCELL WEST OF THE CRP AREA IS GETTING BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH WEAK BUT BROAD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOTED ON SWRN
FLANK OF THE STORM AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL ROTATION. TRENDS ALSO
INDICATE A CONTINUED VEERING OF THE STORM MOTION. IN
ADDITION...OTHER CELLS ARE DEVELOPING TO THE E AND SE OF THIS
CELL...FURTHER INDICATING A CONTINUED ENHANCEMENT TO THE
PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT TO THE MOTION.

ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...THIS STORM MAY EVENTUALLY
ATTEMPT TO PRODUCE A TORNADO GIVEN LOCALLY-BACKED SURFACE WINDS TO
THE E. THE CRP VWP CONTINUES TO BE STRONGLY-SUPERCELLULAR...ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL SRH IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. STILL...A BRIEF TORNADO
COULD OCCUR GIVEN THE ORGANIZED NATURE OF THIS CELL. EVEN IF A
TORNADO DOES NOT OCCUR...THE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL BOTH
BE ENHANCED.

..JEWELL.. 04/22/2015


ATTN...WFO...CRP...

LAT...LON 27839836 27989834 28069821 28039771 27919737 27669711
27429728 27489780 27749829 27839836
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Re:

#478 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Apr 22, 2015 12:17 pm

TarrantWx wrote:I hate to be "that guy" but this is one of those days where you just get the feeling that something is going to happen, ya know? Model forecasts aside, it's just a gut feeling. I hope I'm wrong, I really do.


I've been having that gut feeling too. I had the same feeling when Illinois got hit by the EF4 earlier. It may not be for today, like I said earlier 4/26/1991 showed up on the analog for the southern plains and if that date doesn't ring a bell that's the date the Andover tornado occurred. That tornado has tons of footage on youtube.
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Re: Texas Spring-2015

#479 Postby dhweather » Wed Apr 22, 2015 12:19 pm

Way down south near Corpus, there is this monster

Image
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#480 Postby Shoshana » Wed Apr 22, 2015 12:21 pm

There's been so much hype this year about so much severe weather. I know if it happens it's not hype, but I was talking to my mom in Dallas and she's gotten to the point where she doesn't believe any forecasts anymore.

Hopefully she will listen to me and keep up with conditions.
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