STORM2K

Cpv17 wrote:These models are on crack. We go from having healthy rain chances to no rain chance at all in a matter of just 24 hours.

Calm down buddy. Don't just look at one model run. 12z Euro, Canadian, and UKMET all still have much of the eastern half of Texas seeing some good rain chances this weekend.

The 0z GFS is looking more like the Euro has with a cutoff low over the state after the front Sunday. Would stay unsettled and quite cool during the day Monday if that verifies.

This mornings NWS FTW Forecast for Friday thru Sunday

Saturday....A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Saturday Night......Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday.....A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. North wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Rain chances actually went up for Saturday and Saturday night

We need the rain, last round missed a good chunk DFW from I-35 eastward. Soil moisture content is crucial going into Winter as it works as a sponge to soak up solar radiation and help trap and disburse the heat in the ground, thus keeping those layers of air at and above the ground surface cooler.

Latest GFS forecast (lalaland) for Captincrunch's halloween outlook is 80F for a high and 64F for a low which is above normal and dry. Hope that changes.

Ntxw wrote:Latest GFS forecast (lalaland) for Captincrunch's halloween outlook is 80F for a high and 64F for a low which is above normal and dry. Hope that changes.

Crazy GFS...

CaptinCrunch wrote:

Ntxw wrote:Latest GFS forecast (lalaland) for Captincrunch's halloween outlook is 80F for a high and 64F for a low which is above normal and dry. Hope that changes.

Crazy GFS...

Flippity....floppity...flippity....floppity...

Euro EPS has a high of 73 for Halloween but the Control looks closer to 80. I'm getting a feeling this winter will be a repeat of the last couple. Warm stretches with the models showing a promising pattern for cold in the long range. Then they tend warmer and the cold is just a glancing blow with warmth surging back. Blah.

bubba hotep wrote:Euro EPS has a high of 73 for Halloween but the Control looks closer to 80. I'm getting a feeling this winter will be a repeat of the last couple. Warm stretches with the models showing a promising pattern for cold in the long range. Then they tend warmer and the cold is just a glancing blow with warmth surging back. Blah.

I'm thinking the same thing. The models had us with highs in the 50s and 60s around Halloween. I saw the 12z GFS today warmed up to the 70s with lows in the 60s. Not sweaty hot in costume weather, but not the chilling cold as advertised before.

I'd post this in the Winter thread but it seems we're talking in this thread more about the upcoming winter than anywhere else ... but the new JMA forecast for winter is encouraging. It's backed off some of the amount of how much "above normal" temps we'll see in Texas. Almost looked torch-like a month or two ago but now it's just showing a little bit above normal and the below normal precip anomalies have gone away to a more "normal" look. JMA also suggests plenty of Greenland blocking this winter. To me that means sharper plunges of cold air into Texas when they do happen. I'm encouraged!

Portastorm wrote:I'd post this in the Winter thread but it seems we're talking in this thread more about the upcoming winter than anywhere else ... but the new JMA forecast for winter is encouraging. It's backed off some of the amount of how much "above normal" temps we'll see in Texas. Almost looked torch-like a month or two ago but now it's just showing a little bit above normal and the below normal precip anomalies have gone away to a more "normal" look. JMA also suggests plenty of Greenland blocking this winter. To me that means sharper plunges of cold air into Texas when they do happen. I'm encouraged!

What kind of skill does the JMA show? Blocking is always tricky but maybe we get some this winter.

GFS is bringing back some of the cold next week with some 30s appearing in East Texas in the late week timeframe and highs struggling into the 60s for most

Brent wrote:GFS is bringing back some of the cold next week with some 30s appearing in East Texas in the late week timeframe and highs struggling into the 60s for most

i hope that happens!!

Brent wrote:GFS is bringing back some of the cold next week with some 30s appearing in East Texas in the late week timeframe and highs struggling into the 60s for most

Cat 5 in the Gulf ?

Brent wrote:GFS is bringing back some of the cold next week with some 30s appearing in East Texas in the late week timeframe and highs struggling into the 60s for most

We can hope.

Also of interest the end of the 12z Euro had highs barely getting to 60 in DFW next Friday after 70s all week

bubba hotep wrote:

Portastorm wrote:I'd post this in the Winter thread but it seems we're talking in this thread more about the upcoming winter than anywhere else ... but the new JMA forecast for winter is encouraging. It's backed off some of the amount of how much "above normal" temps we'll see in Texas. Almost looked torch-like a month or two ago but now it's just showing a little bit above normal and the below normal precip anomalies have gone away to a more "normal" look. JMA also suggests plenty of Greenland blocking this winter. To me that means sharper plunges of cold air into Texas when they do happen. I'm encouraged!

What kind of skill does the JMA show? Blocking is always tricky but maybe we get some this winter.

JMA is typically one of the better performing long range models.

Typhoon Lan is going to buckle the semi zonal Pacific jet into a highly amplified pattern that could allow a very strong and potent full latitude trough to organize as Lan transitions to extra tropical in the Bering Sea in about a week dropping cold air into Canada and the United States near Halloween. The models are beginning to 'sniff out' this significant Hemispheric Pattern change and with the most amplified MJO we have seen all Summer/early Fall, that pattern change has some validity.

srainhoutx wrote:Typhoon Lan is going to buckle the semi zonal Pacific jet into a highly amplified pattern that could allow a very strong and potent full latitude trough to organize as Lan transitions to extra tropical in the Bering Sea in about a week dropping cold air into Canada and the United States near Halloween. The models are beginning to 'sniff out' this significant Hemispheric Pattern change and with the most amplified MJO we have seen all Summer/early Fall, that pattern change has some validity.

Would this be similar to Typhoon Nuri(?) that recurved and ushered in some really cold air a few Novembers ago? That was a cold air mass if memory serves correctly.

gpsnowman wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:Typhoon Lan is going to buckle the semi zonal Pacific jet into a highly amplified pattern that could allow a very strong and potent full latitude trough to organize as Lan transitions to extra tropical in the Bering Sea in about a week dropping cold air into Canada and the United States near Halloween. The models are beginning to 'sniff out' this significant Hemispheric Pattern change and with the most amplified MJO we have seen all Summer/early Fall, that pattern change has some validity.

Would this be similar to Typhoon Nuri(?) that recurved and ushered in some really cold air a few Novembers ago? That was a cold air mass if memory serves correctly.

Not quite that magnitude, Nuri was near record when it was extratropical and it was juiced by the mutliyear -EPO SSTs in the GOA. But this is a typical Fall typhoon recurve buckle rule which amplifies the jet stream N-S vs mild zonal.

bubba hotep wrote:

Brent wrote:GFS is bringing back some of the cold next week with some 30s appearing in East Texas in the late week timeframe and highs struggling into the 60s for most

We can hope.

My son in Fayetteville AR would be most pleased should this bear out.