STORM2K

Looks like a fair amount of rain coming to the region next week.

Frosty this morning, got down to 37°F

bubba hotep wrote:Looks like a fair amount of rain coming to the region next week.

https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021103000/168/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021103000/168/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

Makes sense with that SOI drop we saw this past week. Now if only we could get some good cold to go with it.

This next front doesn’t appear to be anything but a seasonal normal early November front. Nothing crazy like it was showing a few days ago.

Cpv17 wrote:This next front doesn’t appear to be anything but a seasonal normal early November front. Nothing crazy like it was showing a few days ago.

Yeah and less rain too. Oh well

Much colder up here(were gonna be lucky to see much above 50 starting tomorrow) and it looks like at least DFW will get into it by mid week with highs struggling to the mid 50s. For early November that is quite cold considering average. Yeah maybe the snow hints are gone but what were the odds of that anyway this early

Brent wrote:Much colder up here(were gonna be lucky to see much above 50 starting tomorrow) and it looks like at least DFW will get into it by mid week with highs struggling to the mid 50s. For early November that is quite cold considering average. Yeah maybe the snow hints are gone but what were the odds of that anyway this early

Looks like mid to upper 40’s for lows and mid to upper 60’s for highs across southeast TX with maybe 1-2” of rain late Wednesday into early Thursday. I’ll take it.

Brent wrote:Much colder up here(were gonna be lucky to see much above 50 starting tomorrow) and it looks like at least DFW will get into it by mid week with highs struggling to the mid 50s. For early November that is quite cold considering average. Yeah maybe the snow hints are gone but what were the odds of that anyway this early

It's not common, but there has been September snow in the Panhandle before.

Interesting tweet from Ryan Maue. We’re about four weeks away from being in the window of early winter mischief like 2013:

"The threat for climate-induced extreme winter storms again in Texas this winter remains very high & the state remains increasingly vulnerable to wobbling polar vortex "deep freeze". Double dip La Niña."

aggiecutter wrote::uarrow:
[url]https://i.ibb.co/9WLr9db/Weather.png [/url]

Yeah, loading up on the firewood. Thinking a lot lately about December 2013 and December 1989.

Texas Snowman wrote:Interesting tweet from Ryan Maue. We’re about four weeks away from being in the window of early winter mischief like 2013:

"The threat for climate-induced extreme winter storms again in Texas this winter remains very high & the state remains increasingly vulnerable to wobbling polar vortex "deep freeze". Double dip La Niña."

I swear this fall has literally been the exact same as last fall/winter….

50’s in September

Snow scare October

Boring, plain November and December.

Larry Cosgrove literally predicted winter weather early January last winter. In November. Whatever he says I’m going along with it

Texas Snowman wrote:

aggiecutter wrote::uarrow:
[url]https://i.ibb.co/9WLr9db/Weather.png [/url]

Yeah, loading up on the firewood. Thinking a lot lately about December 2013 and December 1989.

Mike Morgan up in OKC(yeah I know)... Threw out December 1983 last night

There's also been a met here talking about November December 2000 which I know was very cold and had several winter storms

Brent wrote:

Texas Snowman wrote:

aggiecutter wrote::uarrow:
[url]https://i.ibb.co/9WLr9db/Weather.png [/url]

Yeah, loading up on the firewood. Thinking a lot lately about December 2013 and December 1989.

Mike Morgan up in OKC(yeah I know)... Threw out December 1983 last night

There's also been a met here talking about November December 2000 which I know was very cold and had several winter storms

I loved Dec. 2000 as a Kansas kid. Got a few snowstorms that weren’t big but kept piling up because the cold refused to let it melt. Remember sledding on a nearby pond with dad.

Texas Snowman wrote:

aggiecutter wrote::uarrow:
[url]https://i.ibb.co/9WLr9db/Weather.png [/url]

Yeah, loading up on the firewood. Thinking a lot lately about December 2013 and December 1989.

I got a cord last weekend of well seasoned Oak mix. My supplier said he has already sold half of his stock which equaled what he sold all of last winter.

It's going to be a blocky winter. The winter storm chances will be there. Blocking, it's been happening, it's currently happening, and all long range indicators and guidance suggest it will continue.

Million dollar question is what are we going to block? Pacific air, polar air, or Arctic air? Can we time some cold with the blocking?

Brent wrote:

Texas Snowman wrote:

aggiecutter wrote::uarrow:
[url]https://i.ibb.co/9WLr9db/Weather.png [/url]

Yeah, loading up on the firewood. Thinking a lot lately about December 2013 and December 1989.

Mike Morgan up in OKC(yeah I know)... Threw out December 1983 last night

There's also been a met here talking about November December 2000 which I know was very cold and had several winter storms

What did Manic Mike say?

Don't worry Y'all, my family has plans on when needing the Space Heaters for the Well house, I'm sure that the water & pipes would be fine this winter.

Since I'm the family & school Forecaster, they rely & count on me on when the time comes. I've warned my family & the school on the February 2021 Extreme Cold & Snow up to 2 weeks in advance.

CaptinCrunch wrote:

Texas Snowman wrote:

aggiecutter wrote::uarrow:
[url]https://i.ibb.co/9WLr9db/Weather.png [/url]

Yeah, loading up on the firewood. Thinking a lot lately about December 2013 and December 1989.

I got a cord last weekend of well seasoned Oak mix. My supplier said he has already sold half of his stock which equaled what he sold all of last winter.

I do believe that the La Nina makes the Polar Vortex less stable & can cause extreme cold to spill over a particular region, but where is the question, I'm keeping a sharp eye on the Teleconnections.

November 1st North America Teleconnections
PNA: Positive
PNA model trend: Expected to be generally Positive/Sub-Positive for the next several days.

NAO: Negative
NAO Model Trend: Expected to be generally Negative for most of this month

AO: Negative
AO Model Trend: Becoming Positive within the next couple of days & staying generally Positive for the next several Days afterword.

Link for Ensemble Model trends: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

18z GFS



LINK: https://s1.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_52.png



LINK: https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_scus_56.png

Is developing consistency of a very chilly blast somewhere in that time frame, first started to develop the consistency since the 6z run.