STORM2K

We tied the record from 2011 here. Don't like that analog also the hottest in 4 years. We do get a break this weekend from the 100s but yeah otherwise

Negative SOI reading today, if we can sustain it a little bit we may get some Pacific help down the road.

Ntxw wrote:Negative SOI reading today, if we can sustain it a little bit we may get some Pacific help down the road.

Yep, I listen to Australian radio, it is tiring hearing about all their flooding!

A1A wrote:

Ntxw wrote:Negative SOI reading today, if we can sustain it a little bit we may get some Pacific help down the road.

Yep, I listen to Australian radio, it is tiring hearing about all their flooding!

I hadn't even thought about that. ENSO climo is wetter than normal for Australia's east coast during Nina and drought during Ninos. Shows this Current 3 year event is well established.

The trends from the GFS is not going in the right direction (anyone surprised? Of course not). WPC highlights very little qpf the next 7 days except for the immediate upper coast. Lots in Louisiana. Ugh that hope word again.

Seems like the forecasts are taking away the 90 something days We don't want to end up beating the turtle in this graphic (2011).

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1545393736703688705

We had a low of 86 this morning which beats 1980.. 2011 yesterday 1980 today

Ntxw wrote:

A1A wrote:

Ntxw wrote:Negative SOI reading today, if we can sustain it a little bit we may get some Pacific help down the road.

Yep, I listen to Australian radio, it is tiring hearing about all their flooding!

I hadn't even thought about that. ENSO climo is wetter than normal for Australia's east coast during Nina and drought during Ninos. Shows this Current 3 year event is well established.

One good thing is that this is a Year 3 event so next year will almost certainly be neutral or El Nino. We will also be in a much better position if PDO continues to warm. Personally, I think next year will be much wetter unless the unthinkable happens and we get a Year 4 Nina. That has not ever been recorded though.

Well there’s that…

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Well there’s that…
https://i.ibb.co/CWC1jQm/2296-CE91-7-EDD-4-D9-F-AB63-96-AA64-E3513-A.jpg

DFW hit 106, though intra hour could have hit 107. Hottest so far.

Hottest in the state at the moment is 109 Throckmorton, WF hit 109 sometime around 3pm also. Maybe someone will hit 110 west of DFW or southwest of the Falls.

This is the most depressing weather pattern we've had in a long time. About as bad as it gets around here. Unfortunately I don't see much changing anytime soon. It's likely going to be another brutal 2 months or so. I've never wanted summer to end so badly.

South Texas Storms wrote:This is the most depressing weather pattern we've had in a long time. About as bad as it gets around here. Unfortunately I don't see much changing anytime soon. It's likely going to be another brutal 2 months or so. I've never wanted summer to end so badly.

I know hindsight is 20/20 and I wish it were different, but this was actually a very easy summer forecast to make if one believed what the atmosphere was doing back early in May. Eternal optimist but sometimes you just have to believe what it shows you vs what you think it will do. The chips were stacked against us last Fall and Winter. That early heatwave wasn't a blip but a prelude to the dominant 500mb flow.

The last really hot-ish summer was 2018. The EPAC went into hyperactive mode and it got really wet in the Fall, near records. If we are to break it I think that's the way to do it but not sure on it.

No one is ringing alarm bells but Ercot seems lowish on reserves: around 3300 mw. Blackout in this heat would be deadly for some.

https://www.ercot.com/

Ntxw wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:This is the most depressing weather pattern we've had in a long time. About as bad as it gets around here. Unfortunately I don't see much changing anytime soon. It's likely going to be another brutal 2 months or so. I've never wanted summer to end so badly.

I know hindsight is 20/20 and I wish it were different, but this was actually a very easy summer forecast to make if one believed what the atmosphere was doing back early in May. Eternal optimist but sometimes you just have to believe what it shows you vs what you think it will do. The chips were stacked against us last Fall and Winter. That early heatwave wasn't a blip but a prelude to the dominant 500mb flow.

The last really hot-ish summer was 2018. The EPAC went into hyperactive mode and it got really wet in the Fall, near records. If we are to break it I think that's the way to do it but not sure on it.

Oh yeah, about as easy a forecast as can be for longer range here this summer. I've been telling folks since March that this summer would be close to 2011. Unfortunately it looks to be coming true, unsurprisingly. All the long range signals pointed to this and there wasn't much to change this outcome from happening.

funster wrote:No one is ringing alarm bells but Ercot seems lowish on reserves: around 3300 mw. Blackout in this heat would be deadly for some.

https://www.ercot.com/

Pretty close, if it were winter (Feb 21 anyone?) would be of concern. It is a concern now but at least in the summer solar is a huge asset that we have, we don't need as much nat gas in the hot season fortunately. Blazing, unrelenting sunshine good for something! Wind tends to be the iffy one underneath these ridges for production.

Ntxw wrote:

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Well there’s that…
https://i.ibb.co/CWC1jQm/2296-CE91-7-EDD-4-D9-F-AB63-96-AA64-E3513-A.jpg

DFW hit 106, though intra hour could have hit 107. Hottest so far.

Hottest in the state at the moment is 109 Throckmorton, WF hit 109 sometime around 3pm also. Maybe someone will hit 110 west of DFW or southwest of the Falls.

Unfortunately We ended up hitting 110 sometime around 3:30-4.

Storms at our doorstep to the N dropped temps to 85. Almost feels chilly after today.

Yukon Cornelius wrote:

Ntxw wrote:

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Well there’s that…
https://i.ibb.co/CWC1jQm/2296-CE91-7-EDD-4-D9-F-AB63-96-AA64-E3513-A.jpg

DFW hit 106, though intra hour could have hit 107. Hottest so far.

Hottest in the state at the moment is 109 Throckmorton, WF hit 109 sometime around 3pm also. Maybe someone will hit 110 west of DFW or southwest of the Falls.

Unfortunately We ended up hitting 110 sometime around 3:30-4.

Man idk how you put up with that. 110 with a 67°DP. The hell with that.

Interesting reading from Texas Highways…

“‘The history of this place is that it’s really cyclical in terms of rainfall. But weather is one of those things—the moment it’s over, people forget it.’”

https://texashighways.com/culture/history/texas-grit-panhandle-plains-dust-bowl-heritage/

Peaked at a heat index of 114 today is it September yet