Texas Fall 2013

[Tireman4]

I don't think I'll be doing any biking this weekend...

No, but I will be running. Woo Hoo

[aggiecutter]

This from the Shreveport NWS AFD:

CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER BAJA IS FCST TO BEGIN EJECTING SUNDAY...
WHICH WILL FORCE THE RIDGE EWD AND BRING RAPIDLY RETURNING
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. BOTH THE EURO AND THE GFS HAVE BEEN TOYING
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING RAIN FOR LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY...AS WARM SW FLOW LOOKS TO OVERRUN THE COLD AIR AT THE SFC.
MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT IT DEFINITELY
WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT ANY RATE...AT A
MINIMUM...A COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS TX/LA. /12/

[Rgv20]

12z and 18zNAM came in rather cold for my area by Saturday Morning both runs temperature forecast are in the mid 40s and staying there the whole day!

[Rgv20]

0zNAM has some winter weather fun for parts of North Texas..

[Turtle]

@RGV20

Is that precip map free? I would like the link to access it if I can. Thanks!

[orangeblood]

Yeah, the upper level and surface scenario depicted on the 0Z NAM is about as good as it gets for southern plains Winter Storms sending the ULL out sooner than the other models, which looking at the latest EPO forecast to go in the tank, isn't out of the realm of possibilities.

Also, keep in mind that the NAM was the model that picked up on the Snowmaggedon Storm of 2010 before any of the others

[orangeblood]

@RGV20

Is that precip map free? I would like the link to access it if I can. Thanks!

No, its off a pay site called weatherbell.com

[Ntxw]

It's coming folks and it's cold. First surge is shallow with the big high, second surge may be even colder with a bigger high late in the weekend. More dense, cold air is building in NW Canada and Alaska. It's just gonna plow right on through models are eroding it too fast and trying to hold it back too much because upper flow looks bad.





This is the coldest air in the northern Hemisphere, Siberia has been drained and it's flowing right down the rockies.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Can someone explain to me why SE Tx isnt getting the REAL cold stuff? Is it because the bulk of the high slips towards the east and the trough doesnt truly 'dig' as far south? Im kinda bummed out

With that said i have a newAmbient Weather WS-2080 Wireless Home Weather Station coming in to cheer me up. Should be here friday.

[Portastorm]

I know the NAM is not the model of choice for many of us, but it does still raise and eyebrow or two this evening seeing how its 0z run offers a much more significant threat to portions of west central and north central Texas in terms of freezing rain and sleet for later this coming weekend as compared to the 0z GFS run coming in right now.

Looks like NWSFO Dallas/Fort Worth concurs ... here's a snippet from their evening AFD:

AFTER A QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...WE ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE CONCERNED THAT
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COULD BE A BIT MORE WIDE-SPREAD THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. OF COURSE...THIS IS ONLY ONE SOLUTION SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND
AWAIT OTHER GUIDANCE.

[Portastorm]

Can someone explain to me why SE Tx isnt getting the REAL cold stuff? Is it because the bulk of the high slips towards the east and the trough doesnt truly 'dig' as far south? Im kinda bummed out

What do you mean by "REAL cold stuff" and what did you expect to begin with? Low 40s with rain isn't cold enough for you for the weekend before Thanksgiving? Poor wxman57 won't get to bike now as this wintry weather is going to chase him indoors!

The models (and the NWS forecasts) for south central and southeast Texas have been trending slightly colder with each forecast cycle. I would say SE Texas is going to get plenty of cold stuff. You didn't expect another snow miracle or something, did you?!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I guess i was expecting more with the strength of the high coming down. I would be happier if the highs were in the 30's, i thought it would be that at least. Is it because it will modify so quickly? I honestly never expected snow out of this system for us though.

[orangeblood]

I know the NAM is not the model of choice for many of us, but it does still raise and eyebrow or two this evening seeing how its 0z run offers a much more significant threat to portions of west central and north central Texas in terms of freezing rain and sleet for later this coming weekend as compared to the 0z GFS run coming in right now.

Looks like NWSFO Dallas/Fort Worth concurs ... here's a snippet from their evening AFD:

AFTER A QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...WE ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE CONCERNED THAT
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COULD BE A BIT MORE WIDE-SPREAD THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. OF COURSE...THIS IS ONLY ONE SOLUTION SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND
AWAIT OTHER GUIDANCE.

Although the NAM has its moments, it does seem to be far superior handling shallow arctic air masses, I believe even the Fort Worth office has mentioned this a few times.

[Ntxw]

I guess i was expecting more with the strength of the high coming down. I would be happier if the highs were in the 30's, i thought it would be that at least. Is it because it will modify so quickly? I honestly never expected snow out of this system for us though.

It's early in the season. 1050s in November aren't like the big high's in late December or later. It's just as cold up north but there's not the snow cover and cold soil to keep it as cold on it's trip south. It modifies much more, but no doubt it is cold and unusually below average. The largest departures from normal will include SE TX! The fact that we are even getting this during a +AO is a spectacular spectacle and may be a harbinger of things to come. All other signals have pointed to record warmth for wxman57 but mother nature said NO!

[orangeblood]

Latest run of the SREF ensemble members have come in much colder and wetter, showing quite a bit of winter precip starting for the metroplex Saturday Evening into Sunday

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im still learning. I guess i interpreted a perfect correlation of a big high in november is the same as it would be in January. I understand the snowcover part etc, yeah i guess if this happened in January this would likely be almost pipe busting cold. Im stoked to try out the new weather station though. Just came back from AZ for almost a month and im ready for my first big front this season. Also, looks mighty cold for that game between Baylor and Stillwater

[Ntxw]

Hey everyone...does anyone have any clue as to where the low pressure system is going to eject to on Sunday-Tuesday time frame? The Canadian has it further north giving OK a good snow storm Sunday-Tuesday. What do you all see?

Orangeblood has laid it out pretty well. In your neck of the woods Friday night through Sat evening there's a good chance of freezing rain mainly from overrunning moisture coming out of West Texas to your region. Then a second period from Sunday night through Tuesday once the upper low itself passes through. There are questions about moisture availability that far north but a wintry mix and even snow is a possibility for you (assuming you are in Oklahoma).

[ouamber]

Hey everyone...does anyone have any clue as to where the low pressure system is going to eject to on Sunday-Tuesday time frame? The Canadian has it further north giving OK a good snow storm Sunday-Tuesday. What do you all see?

Orangeblood has laid it out pretty well. In your neck of the woods Friday night through Sat evening there's a good chance of freezing rain mainly from overrunning moisture coming out of West Texas to your region. Then a second period from Sunday night through Tuesday once the upper low itself passes through. There are questions about moisture availability that far north but a wintry mix and even snow is a possibility for you (assuming you in Oklahoma). -----Thank you so much! I live in Tulsa. I feel like our weather guys are being very vague about the Sunday-Tuesday time frame. I hate ice, but this is looking like a real threat for that. I enjoy reading all your comments! I would love for all of us to get snow...so tired of the east coast bias when it comes to talking about the weather:)

[Kelarie]

From Shreveport this morning...

...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A STRONG CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY
SWRD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND USHER IN VERY COLD DRY AIR. WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY
DROP DOWN VERY NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL OF THE
AREA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WEST AS A CUT OFF LOW SENDS AN
ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE SURGING IN FROM THE SW ACROSS TX AND
INTO OUR REGION. CURRENT THINKING IS SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA BUT THE FORECAST GETS A BIT TRICKY FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK...AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NWRD WITH A
DEVELOPING SFC LOW IN THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. IT APPEARS WE SHOULD
HOLD TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT HAVE
OPTED TO INCLUDE SLEET ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30 FOR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURE PROFILES SEEM TO INDICATE SLEET IS MORE
LIKELY THAN FREEZING RAIN BUT WE STILL HAVE A FEW MORE DAYS TO
IRON OUT THE DETAILS. EITHER WAY...IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE
LIKELY THAN PARTS OF OUR AREA WILL EXPERIENCE SOME TYPE OF FROZEN
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY MORNING. THE GOOD NEWS IS IT WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP BACK ABOVE FREEZING BY MID
TO LATE MORNING WITH RAIN RESUMING AREA WIDE AND CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER ON WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING SLIGHTLY BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

[TexasF6]

From Austin/SA FD:

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP GOOD RAIN CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST. WILL ALSO HAVE STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE ON EXPOSED SURFACES INCLUDING BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...BUT DO NOT THINK THIS IS LIKELY AT THIS TIME. CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO BE MAINLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. STARTING TUESDAY SHOULD SEE SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE.