Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

The northern extent of invest 93L looks like is moving slowly towards Puerto Rico.What we dont need now is more rain after what ex 92L brought to the island.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
638 PM AST MON JUN 21 2010

PRZ001>004-007-011>013-VIZ002-220645-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0006.100621T2238Z-100622T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
PONCE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...PONCE...CABO ROJO...LAJAS...CULEBRA...
ESPERANZA...CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...
GROVE PLACE
638 PM AST MON JUN 21 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...EASTERN INTERIOR...NORTHEAST...PONCE AND VICINITY...SAN
JUAN AND VICINITY...SOUTHEAST...SOUTHWEST AND VIEQUES. IN VIRGIN
ISLANDS...ST CROIX.

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* A VERY MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A STRENGTHENING
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO
WILL CONTINUE TO FEED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST AND EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOOD
PRODUCING RAINS WITH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 PM AST MON JUN 21 2010

PRC007-015-021-025-029-031-033-035-037-041-045-051-053-057-061-063-
069-077-085-087-089-095-103-105-109-119-127-129-135-137-139-143-145-
147-151-220100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0225.100621T2158Z-100622T0100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-CAGUAS PR-CIDRA PR-CAYEY PR-COMERIO PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-
JUNCOS PR-GURABO PR-NARANJITO PR-TOA ALTA PR-SAN LORENZO PR-
TRUJILLO ALTO PR-VEGA ALTA PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-DORADO PR-ARROYO PR-
LUQUILLO PR-PATILLAS PR-MAUNABO PR-NAGUABO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CEIBA PR-
CANOVANAS PR-GUAYAMA PR-FAJARDO PR-CAROLINA PR-HUMACAO PR-CATANO
PR-VEGA BAJA PR-SAN JUAN PR-LOIZA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-YABUCOA
PR-VIEQUES PR-TOA BAJA PR-
558 PM AST MON JUN 21 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...CIDRA...CAYEY...COMERIO...AGUAS BUENAS...
JUNCOS...GURABO...NARANJITO...TOA ALTA...SAN LORENZO...TRUJILLO
ALTO...VEGA ALTA...LAS PIEDRAS...DORADO...ARROYO...LUQUILLO...
PATILLAS...MAUNABO...NAGUABO...GUAYNABO...CEIBA...CANOVANAS...
GUAYAMA...FAJARDO...CAROLINA...HUMACAO...CATANO...VEGA BAJA...
SAN JUAN...LOIZA...RIO GRANDE...YABUCOA...VIEQUES AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 900 PM AST

* AT 555 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE EVENING HOURS. THIS RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER
ON THE LOCAL HIGHWAYS...AS WELL AS FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...AND
FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS THROUGH AT LEAST 900 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[msbee]

wow, too much rain for PR, Luis!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

#5
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC119-220500-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0058.100622T0105Z-100622T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
905 PM AST MON JUN 21 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY

IN PUERTO RICO
RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 100 AM AST

* AT 856 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
MODERATE RAINFALL OVER THE RIO GRANDE AREA. SEVERAL USGS GAGES
INDICATE THAT THE ESPIRITU SANTO AND THE RIO GRANDE RIVERS NEAR EL
VERDE RISING RAPIDLY AND ARE ONLY A COUPLE OF FEET BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BRING THE RIVER ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. ROADS 191 THAT GOES UP INTO EL
YUNQUE NATIONAL RAIN FOREST WILL LIKELY BECOME FLOODED. ROADS 956
AND 186 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1834 6585 1842 6583 1841 6578 1834 6579
1830 6578 1829 6583

$$

ROSA

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

[abajan]

...#5
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

"HEAVY RAINFALL" and "THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES" in one sentence is a rarity! Those islands (Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire) are usually very dry.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1035 PM AST MON JUN 21 2010

.UPDATE...THE NWS DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING. SEVERAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES AND A FLASH FLOOD WARNING WERE ISSUED THIS EVENING
FOR MUNICIPALITIES ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO. A LARGE AREA OF
MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES. EXPECT THE LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE TO ENHANCE THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW...BEFORE
THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BRINGING AGAIN A DEEP
SURGE IN MOISTURE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DUE TO
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS WELL AS INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO AS WELL FOR
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ST CROIX UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY TJSJ..TJPS AND TISX WITH TSRA OVER THE NEXT 12 HRS. SOME
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TOMORROW.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
559 AM AST TUE JUN 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE AND SEVERAL MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL
MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED 58 WEST
WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING
AN ACTIVE/WET PATTERN ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. TODAY AVAILABLE
MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND BY A TROPICAL WILL INTERACT WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS AND GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA.

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BRINGING AGAIN A
DEEP SURGE IN MOISTURE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS
WELL AS INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.


&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS TJMZ...AND TJBQ WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN TSRA. WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE THIS MORNING THEREFORE SEAS
WILL ALSO SUBSIDE. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
HAITI...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

[Macrocane]

El Salvador is under Green Alert because of the rains registered on the last few days and the rains expected for the next days, some places have already a high risk of mudslides. Yesterday (June 21 2010) observations in El Salvador:

Rainfall
Acajutla 41 mm/1.61 inches
Santa Ana 3 mm/0.12 inches
San Salvador 12 mm/0.47 inches
El Salvador International Airport 30 mm/1.18 inches
Villa El Rosario 92 mm/3.62 inches

Temperatures

Code: Select all

Acajutla         min:21.7°C/71.1°F      max:29.9°C/85.8°F
Santa Ana        min:19.6°C/67.3°F      max:30.3°C/86.5°F
San Salvador     min:20.1°C/68.2°F      max:29.4°C/84.9°F
Las Pilas        min:14.3°C/57.7°F      max:20.0°C/68.0°F
San Miguel       min:23.4°C/74.1°F      max:34.0°C/93.2°F


[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST TUE JUN 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A TUTT DIGS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED ALONG 59W WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AS WELL AS THE
REGIONAL WATERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGAN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT OF THE ISLAND AROUND 1500Z.

GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL
WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST. PROGNOSTIC SOUNDINGS AND LATEST MODELS RUNS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE TWO INCHES AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE...CONTINUE TO
EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO
RICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INDUCED BY DEEP MOISTURE...DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

ON THURSDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 59W APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LIFT TOWARDS
SAINT CROIX AND SOUTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO...THEN QUICKLY PULL
WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA. THE LATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROPICAL WAVE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE CONVECTION IS LIMITED. DUE TO
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN RAPID RISES IN RIVERS...SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AND INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. A FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY THE NEXT
WORK WEEK...HOWEVER AFTERNOON CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
PUERTO RICO. NAAPS AEROSOL GLOBAL MODEL INDICATES SOME SAHARAN DUST
REACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS NEXT FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST 10 TO 25 KT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 23/18Z. SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND SOME BRIEF MVFR WILL OCCUR IN PASSING
SHOWERS FROM SOUTHEAST PR THROUGH NORTHWEST PR TIL 23/02Z. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON THE FLOW TO SOUTHEAST PR AND THE USVI AFT
23/06Z...BUT WILL NOT PENETRATE VERY DEEPLY ONSHORE IN PR.

[tropicana]

...#5
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

"HEAVY RAINFALL" and "THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES" in one sentence is a rarity! Those islands (Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire) are usually very dry.

True! The airport at Aruba ( Queen Beatrix) received 21.7mm of rain thanks to a thunderstorm between 3am and 5am early Tuesday morning

[msbee]

...#5
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

"HEAVY RAINFALL" and "THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES" in one sentence is a rarity! Those islands (Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire) are usually very dry.

True! The airport at Aruba ( Queen Beatrix) received 21.7mm of rain thanks to a thunderstorm between 3am and 5am early Tuesday morning

That is truly amazing!
Those islands barely get that much rain in a year!

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 222333
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS MOVING WESTWARD
ABOUT 10 MPH AND IS SPREADING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI... JAMAICA...AND EASTERN
CUBA. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE WAVE REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN A
DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N73W ACROSS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W MOVING W NEAR 12
KT. THE WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL AND ERN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW
TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 66W-72W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-21N
BETWEEN 72W-78W. THIS LARGE AREA OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BRING 4-7 INCHES OF RAIN TO HISPANIOLA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO.

TROPICAL WAVES

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N37W TO 4N40W MOVING
W NEAR 20 KT. A DRY LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER IS AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS DRAWING A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACCOMPANIED BY DUST
AROUND THE TOP AND WRN SIDE OF THE WAVE. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A DRY CIRCULATION ABOUT THE WAVE
WITH A PEAK IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO THE E OF THE AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N
BETWEEN 25W-45W.


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 61W S OF
15 N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 61W-63W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1006 PM AST TUE JUN 22 2010


.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF PR WILL SHIFT WEST INTO THE
WRN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS WILL DIG SOUTH INTO ERN CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W
WILL REACH TO NEAR 70W BY 18Z WED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE BLOB OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF PR
APPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
BLOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVR PR IN AN AREA OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MANY HOURS OVR THE MONA PASSAGE
WITH HVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W SOUTH OF 15N WILL REACH TO NEAR 70W BY 18Z
TOMORROW. 18Z GFS VERY AGGRESIVE BRINGING TON OF WEATHER OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY TOMORROW. HAVE DOWNPLAYED THIS SOMEWHAT AND HAVE
INDICATED BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE TOMORROW WHEN AXIS OF TROPICAL
WAVE SHOULD BE WEST OF THE AREA. GIVEN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER DONT
EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION ALONG
THE SOUTH AND EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THINGS CLOSELY IN CASE OF HIGHER FLOOD THREAT THAN WHAT IS
PORTRAYED BY MODELS. NEXT WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG 40W LOOKING
PRETTY GOOD WITH PLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION AND SURROUNDED BY VERY
MOIST AIR. THIS WAVE SHOULD ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
PROMISES TO BE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER MAKER.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME VCSH AFFECTING THE TAF SITES FROM TIME
TO TIME. FOR TOMORROW...SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT THE PR AND VI
SITES...AS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE TEMPO PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDS ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN
COASTAL AREAS.


&&

.MARINE...WILL REEVALUATE MARINE GRIDS SHORTLY BUT LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL NEED A SCA FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS. SEAS STAYING BELOW SCA BUT
WINDS GUSTY AND CLOSE TO THRESHOLD.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Good morning.A wet pattern is instored for next weekend as another active wave moves thru the Eastern Caribbean.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230841
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
441 AM AST WED JUN 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 63W THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST NEXT 24 HOURS
AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA WITH ACTIVE WEATHER. ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS COMING OFF
FROM A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED TO OUR WEST WERE SEEN OVERNIGHT.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTHWEST OF
PUERTO RICO...BUT NONE OVER LAND. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...IN COMBINATION WITH ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING...PROMISE TO BRING ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AN ACTIVE TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED THIS MORNING NEAR 63W LONGITUDE...IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
ALTHOUGH MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...LATEST LAYER MEAN WIND ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS SHOWS SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 700-850MB LAYER...WHICH WILL IMPLIES SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA...MAINLY TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MOST PROBABLY WE WILL SEE A SIMILAR SCENARIO THAT WE SAW
WITH LAST TROPICAL WAVE...WITH MOST CONCENTRATE AREA OF HEAVY
SHOWERS STAYING OVER THE WATERS SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND
SOME BRUSHING THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...A MOIST
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE ENOUGH...TO
TRIGGER AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL..AND
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON...AND LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT.

A BRIEF "DRIER PERIOD" IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...WHEN SUBSIDENCE
AIR...AND POSSIBLE SOME SAHARAN DUST...AHEAD OF AN ACTIVE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE DUST WILL
BE MINIMAL...AS INDICATED BY LATEST NAAPS AEROSOL GLOBAL
MODEL. HOWEVER...THIS DRIER PERIOD WILL NOT LAST FOR TOO LONG AS THE
ACTIVE TROPICAL TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR
45W LONGITUDE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGESTS...THIS WAVE WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NORTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENHANCING THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY OF THIS
WAVE...AS ITS MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THEREFORE...IF THIS
FORECAST VERIFY...A WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR OUR AREA. STAY
TUNED FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS AND GENERALLY ESE WINDS NEAR 10
KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 23/16Z...WITH MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK NEAR
10KFT ALL PR TAF SITES. AFTERWARDS...EXPECT TEMPO MVFR CONDS ACROSS
ALL PR TAF SITES AND THE VI AS A TROPICAL WAVE NEARS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. LLVL WIND FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20KTS AFT
23/16Z.