Texas Summer 2012

[weatherdude1108]

Last year on this date (August 28, 2011), the high at Camp Mabry was 112 degrees, an all-time record that was tied for that station (city's official temperature record location).

Today, one year later, the high is only supposed to be 95-100 in Austin. That is a relief!

[aggiecutter]

12z GFS shows heavy rains in deep east, and in particular NE Texas, from the remnants of Isaac.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[South Texas Storms]

12z GFS is ugly for us central and south Texas. Isaac's rains just miss us to our east and it's showing less than .50 inch of rain through the first 2 weeks of September. Ugh.. I'm so ready for the subtropical jet stream to get going down here.

[Ntxw]

Ah the dog days of summer continues. Still no changes in that the first half of August will remain hot and dry for most of the state. Wild card continues to be the waves off the African coast but not very confident they will provide much relief for us. PNA remains negative and should straddle neutral for awhile.

Was a good idea heading into August. Now that the first half is gone, lets talk about the second half. CPC likes the idea of a somewhat "cool" period to round out August for parts of Texas and wetter. Since the Nino is getting stronger I like this idea also. Probably more NW flow events that brings rain once or twice a week. PNA+ is a good sign coupled with -AO. "Cooler" air looks like it will arrive a bit sooner than Sept. Still not seeing any real help from tropics though BOC keeps showing up on models. They have done it several times this year though and not really come to fruition.

I think I'm going to give myself a B+ so far in August . DFW only had 1 or 2 highs above average since that post and rain has been above normal too for the month. Not sure about other regions but probably the same with seasonal temps (minus deep south Texas).

First half of Sept. -PNA and neutral NAO/AO will give us labor day heat. Nothing new right? Every year it seems . Isaac is the wildcard for wet in eastern Tx. CPC likes it warm and dry to start the month and I agree for almost everybody. I'm thinking a possible front by the 10th of Sept with a low swinging through the lakes to break the remaining ridge for us. Still seeing no direct tropical threats for Texas during that period from the Atlantic.

[~FlipFlopGirl~]

I did get caught in a downpour in Waco- Yesterday- Didn't mind one but during the summer- What's the deal with Issac it sure is teasing TX- did not the NAM 0Z have it hitting Port Arthur last night- Has this not been the longest more interesting TS/hurricane ever- For those of on ER in TX its been a nightmare waiting for this thing to get consistent path-

[Rgv20]

11:30AM and its already 100F....thank you Isaac

[Portastorm]

Yep. Told ya!

For those of us west of I-45, this has been a rather common event. A hurricane goes up to our east. We get dry, continental winds from the north and high pressure. In other words: hot and dry. Happened with Ike, Rita, Katrina, etc.

What I wouldn't give for a Hermine or something ... oh well.

[Ntxw]

May seem so distant on the horizon but if you keep chugging along you'll get there



Models have backed away a little from the "super hot" to just "hot" near term

[weatherdude1108]

Yep. Told ya!

For those of us west of I-45, this has been a rather common event. A hurricane goes up to our east. We get dry, continental winds from the north and high pressure. In other words: hot and dry. Happened with Ike, Rita, Katrina, etc.

What I wouldn't give for a Hermine or something ... oh well.

I was thinking that same thing! Same thing happened with the last several tropical systems like you mentioned. Hermine does sound nice, although it would have been more beneficial had Hermine dropped her contents upstream of the Highland Lake chain instead of upstream of Town Lake. That did nothing but force the release of water downstream. Wish there were a way to channel that water upstream via some sophisticated water pump like they have for the levees down in New Orleans.

[South Texas Storms]

Yep. Told ya!

For those of us west of I-45, this has been a rather common event. A hurricane goes up to our east. We get dry, continental winds from the north and high pressure. In other words: hot and dry. Happened with Ike, Rita, Katrina, etc.

What I wouldn't give for a Hermine or something ... oh well.

I realized that last year at this time Tropical Storm Lee was flooding Louisiana just like Isaac is now. Lee gave us dry and windy weather and this caused some of the biggest fires across Texas last year. Thankfully so far this year we have had more rain than we did last year so the fire threat isn't too high.

I always want another Hermine!! That storm was amazing!
Oh well, hopefully next year is our turn!

[Portastorm]

You know, I'm just not sure how common it is to see major "weather" in south central Texas as a result of a named tropical system from the Atlantic basin. I do recall one Pacific hurricane during an El Nino year which really hammered us good in like October or something. I mean, I've lived in Austin since 1984 and in that time there haven't been many named systems which caused severe or significant weather here in town. In fact, my brother calls me "The Great Deflector" due to this. Hey may be right because I can only name three systems, all tropical storms, which created some nasty weather here ... and that is in 28 years!

Systems would be: TS Hermine in 2010 was cool. I recall TS Erin in 2007 gave us some decent winds/rains albeit brief. TS Frances in 1997 gave us some decent rains here in Austin.

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow:

You know, I'm just not sure how common it is to see major "weather" in south central Texas as a result of a named tropical system from the Atlantic basin. I do recall one Pacific hurricane during an El Nino year which really hammered us good in like October or something. I mean, I've lived in Austin since 1984 and in that time there haven't been many named systems which caused severe or significant weather here in town. In fact, my brother calls me "The Great Deflector" due to this. Hey may be right because I can only name three systems, all tropical storms, which created some nasty weather here ... and that is in 28 years!

Systems would be: TS Hermine in 2010 was cool. I recall TS Erin in 2007 gave us some decent winds/rains albeit brief. TS Frances in 1997 gave us some decent rains here in Austin.

I know what you mean Porta. It seems like almost all of the tropical systems go too far to the east or south of south central Texas.
I think TS Fay in 2002, TS Erin in 2007 and TS Hermine in 2010 gave SA flooding rainfall. Our area is really overdue for a stronger tropical system. It's been a long time since the Corpus area got hit by a hurricane.

Here are two good articles I found on Texas' tropical storm and hurricane history:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Te ... %93present)
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/txhur.pdf

[Rgv20]

Well we have a nice surprise this afternoon....Forgot how good the rain cool air feels!

Flood Advisory

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
647 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012

TXC247-427-300045-
/O.NEW.KBRO.FA.Y.0077.120829T2347Z-120830T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JIM HOGG-STARR-
647 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED AN

* ARROYO AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID ARROYO RISES IN...
SOUTH CENTRAL JIM HOGG COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

NORTH CENTRAL STARR COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF VIBORAS.

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 644 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR FROM A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE ADVISED AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND WILL PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING OVER
THE MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL JIM HOGG COUNTY AND NORTH
CENTRAL STARR COUNTY INCLUDING THE TOWN OF VIBORAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RAPID RISING STREAMS OR ARROYOS WILL EXCEED THEIR BANKS BY UP TO 1
FOOT. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF NEARBY LOW LYING AREAS.

DON`T BECOME A STATISTIC. TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN!

&&

LAT...LON 2694 9887 2691 9858 2648 9860 2650 9897

$$

[weatherdude1108]

Well we have a nice surprise this afternoon....Forgot how good the rain cool air feels!

Flood Advisory

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
647 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012

TXC247-427-300045-
/O.NEW.KBRO.FA.Y.0077.120829T2347Z-120830T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JIM HOGG-STARR-
647 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED AN

* ARROYO AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID ARROYO RISES IN...
SOUTH CENTRAL JIM HOGG COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

NORTH CENTRAL STARR COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF VIBORAS.

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 644 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR FROM A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE ADVISED AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND WILL PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING OVER
THE MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL JIM HOGG COUNTY AND NORTH
CENTRAL STARR COUNTY INCLUDING THE TOWN OF VIBORAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RAPID RISING STREAMS OR ARROYOS WILL EXCEED THEIR BANKS BY UP TO 1
FOOT. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF NEARBY LOW LYING AREAS.

DON`T BECOME A STATISTIC. TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN!

&&

LAT...LON 2694 9887 2691 9858 2648 9860 2650 9897

$$

Awesome!!

We're experiencing the desert side of Isaac up here in south central Texas. I'm glad you got some moisture!

[Portastorm]

I'm telling you, I keep offering a slogan to our chamber of commerce but they won't listen:

AUSTIN: Gateway to the Sonoran Desert

[Tireman4]

Fall Front?.....

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE REGION AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THIS COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR ONE OR TWO
FRONTS TO REACH NORTH TEXAS LATE NEXT WEEK. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
20 POPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AT THE VERY END OF THE
FORECAST AS THE GFS ADVERTISES ONE FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[weatherdude1108]

Pattern change by next weekend? One can dream.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
255 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS TROPICAL
STORM ISAAC CONTINUES A SLOW NORTHERLY PROGRESSION INTO ARKANSAS.
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY
APPEARS TO HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR AREAL COVERAGE AND INLAND
PROGRESSION OF STORMS AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN GULF
WILL HELP PROVIDE A SUBTLE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND ENHANCE THE SEA-
BREEZE.THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY AFFIXED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ENDING CHANCES FOR RAIN. HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE WEEKEND OF SEPT 8/9 AS A
WEAK FRONT BACK-DOORS INTO THE REGION.

[Portastorm]

Meanwhile, I saw today where the City of Austin is tightening up its water restrictions after briefly loosening them. We go back to Stage 2 next week.

[weatherdude1108]

Yeah, I'm not sure why they loosened them in the first place. The lakes are just as low (or lower) than last year. I know El Nino is in our favor this year. Maybe that is what they were basing the loosened restrictions on(?).

Cedar Park is still allowed to do twice a week watering(?). I'm confused because Austin and Cedar Park get their water from the same watershed, right? I have only been watering once a week. Toughens up the yard, plus, I feel bad for you guys in Austin proper and subsequently guilty for using more than that. Time to do our rain dances, especially to our west and northwest!

[ndale]

:uarrow:

You know, I'm just not sure how common it is to see major "weather" in south central Texas as a result of a named tropical system from the Atlantic basin. I do recall one Pacific hurricane during an El Nino year which really hammered us good in like October or something. I mean, I've lived in Austin since 1984 and in that time there haven't been many named systems which caused severe or significant weather here in town. In fact, my brother calls me "The Great Deflector" due to this. Hey may be right because I can only name three systems, all tropical storms, which created some nasty weather here ... and that is in 28 years!

Systems would be: TS Hermine in 2010 was cool. I recall TS Erin in 2007 gave us some decent winds/rains albeit brief. TS Frances in 1997 gave us some decent rains here in Austin.

Maybe I shouldn't mention this because I know it will just depress you Portastorm, but don't forget this happens with winter precipitaion too, how many times do snow storms just miss us or even go south of us?