ThunderSleetDreams wrote:Been running weather the last few days. That humid 80 degree poop is for the freaks.
When I was training for biathlons in the late 1980s, I loved to run in mid-afternoon during the heat of the day in the summer. Running in cool weather always made my lungs hurt as a kid (seemed like that's what it was, anyway). The only running I do in cold weather is from the grocery store to my car. I'm looking forward to a return of 80+ temps by Wednesday. That's warm enough to bike in shorts and a short-sleeve jersey. This week's Pacific front should struggle to make it to the coast, keeping temps warm. Probably another surge of cold air early next week but it won't last long.
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 8:57 am
by Yukon Cornelius
Made it down to 25 this morning
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 9:41 am
by Iceresistance
Yukon Cornelius wrote:Made it down to 25 this morning
I made it down to 20°F, Kingfisher may have recorded their latest single digit temperature at 9°F.
Here are the April - June precipitation anomalies based on Tyler's transition analogs.
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:00 pm
by bubba hotep
They also favor a cool to cold Fall across much of the US.
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:32 pm
by Ntxw
With the daily and 30 SOI negative it will be a far cry from what happened one year ago. We'll have cool periods broken up by periods of rainfall. I do think late April and May we'll see the more typical very wet Nino like Spring pattern. Full basin Nino likely later this year.
FYI DFW hit 32F this morning.
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 3:39 pm
by txtwister78
Snow reports (dusting to just under half an inch) yesterday morning made it as far east as Ingram (Kerr County) and Vanderpool (Bandera County) per AUS/SAT NWS. While models definitely were more bullish on accumulation last week, seeing snow fall and even accumulate in some areas just NW of SA was awesome for Mid-March.
Good news for the SA metro is we tallied up more beneficial rain with some parts of the city receiving almost 2 inches in total from the post frontal showers/storms late Thursday night along with the disturbance Friday evening into early Saturday morning. Keep it coming! Pattern remains active this week.
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 6:21 pm
by wxman57
12Z Euro dropped next Sunday night/Monday morning's cold front. Like to see that. Winter officially ends tomorrow! Always great to say goodbye to winter.
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 7:09 pm
by Texas Snowman
txtwister78 wrote:Snow reports (dusting to just under half an inch) yesterday morning made it as far east as Ingram (Kerr County) and Vanderpool (Bandera County) per AUS/SAT NWS. While models definitely were more bullish on accumulation last week, seeing snow fall and even accumulate in some areas just NW of SA was awesome for Mid-March.
Good news for the SA metro is we tallied up more beneficial rain with some parts of the city receiving almost 2 inches in total from the post frontal showers/storms late Thursday night along with the disturbance Friday evening into early Saturday morning. Keep it coming! Pattern remains active this week.
When I lived in West Texas I taught in Fort Stockton, and we had some teachers who lived in Alpine. That was snow city.
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 7:38 am
by Cpv17
Ntxw seems confident about a return to wet weather soon. I’m not there yet, personally.
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 12:00 pm
by wxman57
Only 4 1/2 more hours until winter is officially over! Hurray! Bring on the heat! Models continue to back off on next week's Canadian cold front. GFS tries to push one through TX on April 1st, but I'm hoping it's just an April Fool's joke. Not a particularly dry pattern, nor is it particularly wet. Just some occasional rain, it appears.
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 12:19 pm
by Ntxw
Cpv17 wrote:Ntxw seems confident about a return to wet weather soon. I’m not there yet, personally.
Oh I don't think we'll see anything considered heavy in terms of qpf yet! Just that it won't be long stretches of dry and hot. While the SOI is negative, I wouldn't say it has tanked.
Pacific rising motion will appear in April sometime and I think that will be the time CFSv2 and weeklies point to much above normal precipitation.
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 12:42 pm
by cycloneye
Spring begins today at 4:24 PM CDT.
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 6:26 pm
by South Texas Storms
Today's Euro Weeklies run is backing up Ntxw's prediction of a wet April. Bring it on!
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 7:45 pm
by Iceresistance
South Texas Storms wrote:Today's Euro Weeklies run is backing up Ntxw's prediction of a wet April. Bring it on!
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS HILL COUNTRY ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of hail, some very large, and damaging gusts are possible Thursday afternoon through Friday morning across the southern Plains.
...Synopsis... The upper pattern early Thursday is forecast to consist of a western CONUS trough and subtropical ridging centered over the Gulf of Mexico. Enhanced mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow will persist between these two features, extending from northern Mexico into the Great Lakes region. A pair of shortwave troughs will be embedded within the belt of stronger flow, one initially near the Mid MO Valley and the other across southern AZ/northern Mexico. Both shortwaves are expected to progress northeastward, with the second shortwave moving through the southern High Plains during the afternoon/evening, reaching KS/OK by early Friday morning.
The surface pattern Thursday morning will likely feature a low over southern MI, with a cold front extending southwestward to another low over northwest TX. The northern portion of the cold front will remain progressive, moving eastward across the OH Valley. The southern portion of the front (from northwest TX across OK) will only make modest eastward/southeastward progress throughout the day, as another low develops over west TX. This second low is then expected to push northeastward along the front from Thursday evening into Friday, moving from the Permian Basin into southeast OK. At it does, an associated dryline will move eastward across southwest and central TX.
...Southern Plains... Low to mid 60s dewpoints are expected be in place along the front early Thursday morning, likely increasing into the mid/upper 60s by the late afternoon. This increasing low-level moisture coupled with modest daytime heating should destabilize the airmass south of the front by the late afternoon. Consequently, convergence along the front is expected to result in thunderstorm development, likely beginning over OK. Vertical shear will be strong, and the initial more cellular development may produce hail. However, the slow-moving front combined with the front-parallel orientation of the deep-layer vertical shear suggests numerous storms and messy storm mode. This could limit the overall severe potential across much of OK.
Farther south, thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of the deepening surface low expected to move into northwest TX during the late afternoon/early evening. A more cross-boundary vertical shear vector is anticipated here, supporting a greater potential for supercells for at least a few hours. Very large hail is possible with these storms as well as damaging gusts. As the low and associated front continue eastward, storm coverage should increase southward across the TX Hill Country/Edwards Plateau. Hail and damaging gusts are possible with this line of storms as it moves eastward toward the I-35 corridor early Friday morning.
..Mosier.. 03/21/2023
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Tue Mar 21, 2023 1:00 pm
by gpsnowman
I've really enjoyed the cool weather the past few days but I haven't been paying much attention to the weather lately so I had no clue about any rain chances today. Of course yesterday I spent good money on a detailed car wash. Oh well, it's not the first time and at least the East Texas pollen is off my car.
