Florida Weather

[jhpigott]

Just an added snippet from the FINAL HPC discussion issued at 1:24 PM today..

SERIOUS COLD OUTBREAK THREAT FOR FLORIDA AS THE NEXT COLD SURGE
DRIVES DEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WITH VERY LOW MID
LEVEL HTS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROF THAT HAS A NEAR -4
STANDARDIZED ANOMALY IN ITS HTS AND A -4.5 TO 5 NEG STANDARDIZED
H850 TEMP ANOMALY BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT OF WELL BELOW FREEZING
TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND DEEP INTO CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN
FLORIDA WITH RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS MIAMI. THIS
BEGINS TO RIVAL THE DEC 1989 AND POSSIBLY THE JAN 1977 COLD
OUTBREAKS ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS WILL BE PRECEDED ON DAY 3 BY A COLD
FRONT WITH OVERRUNNING WINTRY TYPE OF PRECIPTAION ACROSS NRN AND
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST 12 GFS CLOSING OFF OF THE MID LEVEL
CENTER COLD POOL OFFERS A THREAT OF COASTAL SNOW ACROSS NERN FL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

[jhpigott]

PBI reading 54 degrees at 2pm (forecasted high of 56) looking like we may not hit our forecasted high.

Currently under a freeze watch for tonight/tomorrow morning.

[jdray]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
229 PM EST WED JAN 6 2010

...RECORD MIN TEMPS LIKELY TONIGHT...
...CHANCE OF WINTRY MIX FRI MORNING OVER GA...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...
A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER MS/AL THIS AFTN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
POSITION ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THU MORNING. SOME PASSING CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR GA ZONES
ALOFT...HOWEVER IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER
MUCH OF FL TO BRING THE COLDEST NIGHT THUS FAR OF OUR PERSISTENT
2010 ARCTIC BLAST. EXPECT RECORD MIN TEMPS TO BE BROKEN OR TIED A
MOST OF OUR CLIMATE SITES TONIGHT...AND A HARD FREEZE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES.

RECORD MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT...

JAX 21 IN 1924
GNV 22 IN 1924
AMG 25 IN 1980
SSI 26 IN 1996

THU...A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS THU AS FLOW BACKS SW IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 50S
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTN.

THU NIGHT AND FRI....MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PASSAGE OF FRONTAL
PRECIP AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA FRI MORNING. HOWEVER...
THE PHASING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... LIFT AND COLD TEMPS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT MUCH
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MODERATE
CHANCES OF MAINLY A COLD LIGHT RAIN EVENT THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING...
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS OUR GA ZONES FROM GENERALLY
GLYNN COUNTY TO WARE AND NORTHERN ECHOLS COUNTY. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH ESPECIALLY
ACROSS N OF I-10 NEAR SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP `FLURRIES
POSSIBLE` OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT IT IS A POSSIBILITY.

WE STILL BELIEVE THE MAIN WX RELATED CONCERN EARLY FRI MORNING WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ICY BRIDGES AND SOME ROADWAYS. ALTHOUGH PRECIP
AMTS WILL BE LIGHT...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS OUR INLAND GA ZONES AND THESE
CONDITIONS HAPPEN WITHIN A CLOSE ENOUGH TIME PERIOD TO CREATE ICE
AND DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS.

FRI WILL FEEL COLDER THAN AMBIENT TEMPS WITH A THICK CIRRUS DECK
EXPECTED AND BRISK NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM NEAR 40 ACROSS OUR GA ZONES TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT... THE GFS AND NAM BRING IN COLD AND DRY AIR ON NW
WINDS FRI NIGHT/SAT WITH THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
FOCUSING ACROSS SOUTHERN FL. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO LINGER
SHALLOW MOISTURE (ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GULF ON WLY
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS) FROM JAX TO GNV. 12Z SAT ECMWF MODEL
SOUNDINGS NEAR OCF SHOW BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AND NEARLY SATURATED
AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN. NEAR 700 MB A 1-3 DEW PT DEPRESSIONS
OCCUR...BUT TEMPS ALL ARE BELOW FREEZING DOWN TO THE SFC. THIS
SOUNDING IS DEFINITELY A `SNOW SOUNDING`...BUT SERIOUSLY QUESTION
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOWN BY THE MODEL. THINK BETTER
CHANCES OF SNOW/FLURRIES WOULD BE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL FL
AND ALONG THE GULF COAST WHERE COLD STRATOCU DECK MAY INFRINGE.
AFTER COLLAB WITH MLB AND TBW...DECIDED TO ONLY MENTION THIS REMOTE
FLURRY POSSIBILITY IN THE AFD AT THIS TIME. TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL FALL
BACK IN HARD FREEZE VALUES AND DURATIONS INLAND...BUT DID TREND A
BIT WARMER THAN MOS DUE TO THICK CIRRUS OVER THE AREA AND GRADIENT
WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALSO LOOKS LIKELY
FOR AT LEAST FL ZONES FRI NIGHT.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT WILL FEEL PRETTY RAW WITH BREEZY AND COLD NW FLOW
OVER THE AREA AS A VERY STRONG AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIVES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWING A CLOSED 500
MB VORTEX OVER OUR CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY. THICK CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA SAT AND COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS YIELD WIND CHILLS
IN THE LOW 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR MANY AREAS DESPITE HIGHS FORECAST IN
THE 40S. SAT NIGHT A SFC WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF THE
FL EAST COAST...WHILE A TROUGH POSSIBLY EXTENDING WESTWARD TOWARD
OUR COAST. THE TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD EARLY SUN...BUT AGAIN IF
ENOUGH MOISTURE CAN EDGE TOWARD THE FL COAST EARLY SUN...COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Modeling for the weekend looking like lows will challenge 1989's records...12z showing degree line in HAVANA!!!!

Just an added snippet from the FINAL HPC discussion issued at 1:24 PM today..

SERIOUS COLD OUTBREAK THREAT FOR FLORIDA AS THE NEXT COLD SURGE
DRIVES DEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WITH VERY LOW MID
LEVEL HTS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROF THAT HAS A NEAR -4
STANDARDIZED ANOMALY IN ITS HTS AND A -4.5 TO 5 NEG STANDARDIZED
H850 TEMP ANOMALY BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT OF WELL BELOW FREEZING
TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND DEEP INTO CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN
FLORIDA WITH RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS MIAMI. THIS
BEGINS TO RIVAL THE DEC 1989 AND POSSIBLY THE JAN 1977 COLD
OUTBREAKS ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS WILL BE PRECEDED ON DAY 3 BY A COLD
FRONT WITH OVERRUNNING WINTRY TYPE OF PRECIPTAION ACROSS NRN AND
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST 12 GFS CLOSING OFF OF THE MID LEVEL
CENTER COLD POOL OFFERS A THREAT OF COASTAL SNOW ACROSS NERN FL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

HPC agrees...

[HURAKAN]

Miami:

January

2 -> 49ºF
3 -> 47ºF
4 -> 44ºF
5 -> 43ºF
6 -> 40ºF
7 -> 40ºF (Forecast)

Normal low for this time of the year : 60ºF

[gatorcane]

OK this ice/sleet talk for S. FL deserves a separate thread:

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=107336

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Snow in Central FL??

http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blog ... d_snow.asp

[jpigott]

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi? ... ield=ptype

look out at 78 hours . . .

[JPmia]

It is 38 degrees at my house in Ft. Lauderdale. Wow. I usually don't post during the winter, but this is some unusually cold weather! This reminds of 1989, but without the electrical blackouts.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Currently 39*F officially in Tampa, but 32*F in Plant City.
Now For the Heat Wave: 43*F at Downtown Saint Petersburg.

[gatorcane]

Latest IR seems to suggest some high clouds thickening across the SE GOM racing east along the subtropical jet. Some thicker cloud streaks exist across parts of Central FL. WV images suggest some thickness developing as well. If this trend continues don't see freezing temperatures verifying tonight for much of South FL but will see how much impact it has:

[gatorcane]

My suspicion as of last night was correct. Freeze totally missed the Southern 1/3 of FL due to that cloud cover I mentioned. This would be the 3rd or 4th straight night that the freeze warnings have not verified and temps ended up about 5F to 7F degrees warmer than expected.

[JPmia]

Well the lowest temp at my house last night at around 12am or so was 36. It warmed up by early this morning to 38 and now in the 40s. I think my neighborhood has some lower topography in the area allowing cooler air to pool because we are usually a couple of degrees cooler than the official readings at the airport. Though, not as cold as up north, this cold weather reminds of living up north while i was in college. Nice change and even better to know that it will end next week!

[Sanibel]

43.9* low last night. Should break 60* today in sun.


29* low predicted for saturday in Ft Myers! We should come close to freezing here if it verifies.


59* high today. Never got close to the predicted 65* under sunny skies.


This is really something.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

42*F on the car thermometer in Saint Petersburg. Heck it could probably
snow tonight if the temp dropped to the 30s and the clouds over the gulf
let out rain.

[HURAKAN]

Miami:

January

2 -> 49ºF
3 -> 47ºF
4 -> 44ºF
5 -> 43ºF
6 -> 40ºF
7 -> 44ºF
8 -> 49ºF

7 days now below 50°F. Normal low for this time of the year : 60ºF

[jhpigott]

The 12z GFS just came in on NCEP, looks way better than the 00z and 6z for snow in South Florida. More moisture, more cold air advection. Central Florida still looking good too.

gfs_sl8_036l.gif

[Sanibel]

44* last night. Only 64* today with 70* in Ft Myers 15 miles away. Gulf must have kept us cool. South wind in front of approaching rain front brought brief respite from frigid cold. Next arctic blast behind rain front.

[Sanibel]

Key West broke a 131 year record low at 47*

[jpigott]

not every day, heck, not ever, do you see a forecast like this from Miami NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
411 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2010

...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND COLD RAIN TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL
FOR A HISTORICAL FREEZE AND EXTRAORDINARILY LOW WIND CHILL
VALUES ON SUNDAY MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN BOTH MODEL GUIDANCE
AND METEOROLOGICAL REASONING FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. AN UNUSUALLY POWERFUL COLD FRONT...MARKING THE LEADING
EDGE OF A SIBERIAN AIR MASS...CONTINUES TO SURGE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S...WITH THIS THE WARMEST AIR THAT SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
EXPERIENCE FOR QUITE SOME TIME.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO ARRIVE IN THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 22-24Z...SHOULD BE LOCATED
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NAPLES TO THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY 09/00Z...AND WILL SURGE RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND OFFSHORE BY 09/04Z. THE
COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AS MID-LEVEL
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FROM SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM INCREASES...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG/ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME JUST ABOVE
THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS. POCKETS OF ENHANCED LIFT OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO ARE ALREADY EVIDENT IN IR SATELLITE DATA...AND EXPECT
THIS TO LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN...
BEGINNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND ENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
PARTIAL THICKNESS METHOD OF FORECASTING P-TYPE STILL SUGGESTS THAT
A FEW ICE PELLETS MAY MIX WITH THE RAIN BEFORE PRECIP COMES TO AN
END ON SATURDAY. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR AT ALL...IT WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY BE TO THE NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM EVERGLADES
CITY TO WEST PALM BEACH. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...IT IS IMPORTANT
TO NOTE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY MAY BE
READINGS AT MIDNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS/RAIN...AND PERSISTENT COLD
ADVECTION RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE DIURNAL RISE TOMORROW. THUS...
FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD FROM 09/12Z-10/00Z
WILL BE CLOSE TO OR ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

MODELS AGREE THAT AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO DIMINISH QUICKLY. AT THE SAME TIME...A POWERFUL/SECONDARY MID-
LEVEL TROUGH -- CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS -- IS FORECAST TO BE SPREADING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND SHOULD INDUCE A BROAD REGION OF SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS BETWEEN THE NORTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA. THIS
WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AS 1040 MB HIGH SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS...AND NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINTAINING THE SOUTHWARD
ADVECTION OF VERY COLD AIR AND LEADING TO DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. A WIND CHILL WATCH AND FREEZE WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING EVERY
COASTAL ZONE ON BOTH COASTS...WITH WIND CHILL/FREEZE WARNINGS
LIKELY REQUIRED BY TOMORROW. THIS WILL IN ALL LIKELIHOOD BE A
SIGNIFICANT ADVECTIVE FREEZE EVENT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH
PROJECTED THICKNESS VALUES AND EXTREMELY LOW DEW POINTS POINTING
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A HISTORICAL FREEZE. COLD TEMPERATURES AND
LOW WIND CHILL CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...
AND WILL MAKE MAJOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO MOS -- AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 SEEM UNREALISTIC.