JSJ 150156 AAA
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
956 PM AST WED JUL 14 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE ATLC NORTH OF 20N FOR
THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRI. A TUTT LOW OVER THE CNTRL ATLC WILL STRENGHTEN AND DRIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD PR/USVI DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA ON A
BRISK EASTERLY FLOW. THESE WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT BUT WITH A DECREASE IN CVRG OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR TO THE
EAST OF THE USVI AND LEEWARDS AS SEEN ON LATEST BLENDED TPW
IMAGERY ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. ISOLD STRONG AFTN CONVECTION
EXPECTED TOMORROW ACROSS WRN INTERIOR AND STREAMERS OFF THE
ISLANDS. MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE GUSTY WINDS GIVEN FAST ENVIRONMENTAL
FLOW OF 20-30 KTS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI AND
PROMISES TO BRING VERY WET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY SAT
AND SUN.
NICE LOOKING WAVE ALONG 30W THIS EVENING IS STARTING TO DEVELOP
DEEP CONVECTION IN ALL QUADRANTS. BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS SEEN
ALONG THE WAVE AND THIS WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP
MOISTURE SURGE WITH NO SAHARAN DUST AROUND. I REALLY LIKE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS WAVE EVEN THOUGH NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS OR
TPC/NHC SUGGEST TC DEVELOPMENT. SSTS CONTINUE AT RECORD LEVELS AND
MJO ANALYSIS INDICATE FVRBL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLC ATTM. HPC
EXTENDED GRAPHICS HAVE THIS WAVE REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES
(60W) BY 12Z WED JUL 21.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES BTW
15/00Z-15/12Z. HOWEVER...PASSING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHRA
WITH PSBL ISOLD TSTMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AND AFFECT
PARTS OF NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. AS A
RESULT...TEMPO MVFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME MAINLY
BTW 15/04Z-15/14Z AT TJSJ...TJNR...TISX AND TIST. MTN TOP
OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PR DUE TO THE PASSING CLOUDS AND SHRA. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL SFC-200 KFT WITH MAX WND OF 25-35 KTS BTW 050-150
KFT BASED ON LATEST 15/00Z TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING.
&&
.MARINE...MARGINAL SCA OCCURRING AT BUOY 42060 ATTM WITH SEAS OF
2.1 METERS. BUOY 41043 ALSO INDICATES 2.8 METER SEAS TO THE NORTH. WILL
KEEP SCAS AS IS FOR NOW.
Caribbean - Central America Weather
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
Good morning. Plenty of rain is forecast for the next few days in the NE Caribbean.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST THU JUL 15 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF 20N FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. A TUTT LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL STRENGHTEN AND DRIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD PR/USVI DURING THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE ACROSS REGION MAINLY ON SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED O MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE DOPPLER RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE OFF
SHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS. WINDS REMAIN FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 15 MPH WITH AN OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AT AROUND 20 MPH WITH AN OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WINDS WILL
PUSH QUICKLY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND LIMIT
THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE WEST
AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY...MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL WATERS. A BETTER ORGANIZED
TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED AT AROUND 44W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
AND REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. THIS TROPICAL IN
COMBINATION WITH A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GENERATE ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN
15/08Z-15/16Z. HOWEVER...PASSING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHRA WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AND AFFECT PARTS OF NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. BETWEEN 15/16Z-15/22Z...BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJMZ...AND TJBQ.
&&
.MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH ATLEAST FRIDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BUOY 42060 IS SHOWING BELOW SCA
CRITERIA, LEFT THE SCA FOR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS. WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO NEAR NORMAL
CONDITIONS AFTER SUNDAY.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST THU JUL 15 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF 20N FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. A TUTT LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL STRENGHTEN AND DRIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD PR/USVI DURING THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE ACROSS REGION MAINLY ON SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED O MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE DOPPLER RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE OFF
SHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS. WINDS REMAIN FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 15 MPH WITH AN OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AT AROUND 20 MPH WITH AN OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WINDS WILL
PUSH QUICKLY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND LIMIT
THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE WEST
AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY...MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL WATERS. A BETTER ORGANIZED
TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED AT AROUND 44W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
AND REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. THIS TROPICAL IN
COMBINATION WITH A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GENERATE ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN
15/08Z-15/16Z. HOWEVER...PASSING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHRA WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AND AFFECT PARTS OF NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. BETWEEN 15/16Z-15/22Z...BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJMZ...AND TJBQ.
&&
.MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH ATLEAST FRIDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BUOY 42060 IS SHOWING BELOW SCA
CRITERIA, LEFT THE SCA FOR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS. WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO NEAR NORMAL
CONDITIONS AFTER SUNDAY.
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
[img]ABNT20 KNHC 151754
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
[/img]
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
[/img]
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cycloneye
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Re:
artist wrote:just saying hi to all our friends that live in the islands. Now that we have this thread we don't get to see you guys as much! Hope all are well with everyone.
Thank you for this message to our friends in the Caribbean and Central America.
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Showers seem to be developing across the Central Caribbean Sea and spreading towards Hispaniola right now and a few storms over W.Cuba as well.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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cycloneye
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- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
Wow,what long and well explaining discussion. As expected,a rainy weekend and beyond.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST THU JUL 15 2010
.SYNOPSIS...RIDGING OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHEAST DIGGING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST WILL THEN WEDGE
ITSELF BETWEEN US AND THE TUTT TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
THE TUTT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY FOR NEARLY A WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...A TROUGH AROUND 55 WEST WILL MOVE UNDER A RIDGE
NORTH OF THE AREA AT 31 NORTH AND CROSS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. NEXT
WEDNESDAY ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE SAME POSITION AS THE FIRST WILL
ATTEMPT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE AND WIND SURGE IS RAPIDLY BEARING
DOWN ON THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY TONIGHT. THIS SAME WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
PUERTO RICO BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SECOND WAVE WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH FEATURES ARE WEAK
THEREAFTER...MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE DRY AIR SEEN IN THE 12Z SOUNDING DELAYED AND
WEAKENED THE CONVECTION OBSERVED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HEAVY
SHOWERS DID FORM IN LAJAS AND CABO ROJO AND SPOTTY SHOWERS WERE
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO FROM ADJUNTAS TO NAGUABO.
SHOWERS ALSO BEGAN TO COME ONSHORE IN PATILLAS FROM A LONG LINE OF
SHOWERS FROM SAINT THOMAS. THE MIMIC PRODUCT HAS BEEN SHOWING AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN 17 AND
22 NORTH LATITUDE AT AS MUCH AS 11 DEGREES PER DAY. CURRENTLY THE
CONVECTION SEEN ON IR IMAGERY IS MOVING...OR RATHER ADVANCING...AT
ABOUT 34 MILES PER HOUR AND WAS LOCATED BETWEEN 63 AND 55 DEGREES
WEST AND 18 TO ABOUT 20 DEGREES NORTH. THIS SIGNATURE LOOKS
SOMEWHAT LIKE WHAT SOME HAVE CALLED THE SCREAMING EAGLE AND
PROMISES TO BRING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
BEFORE DAYBREAK TOMORROW. WOULD ALSO EXPECT VERY GUSTY WINDS...
PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN SOME PLACES NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD
DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. WHILE AMOUNTS FROM THESE FAST
MOVING SHOWERS WILL NOT BE TREMENDOUS...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY
CERTAIN FROM CENTRAL PUERTO RICO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND SOME AREAS WILL HAVE A STORM TOTAL OF OVER 2.00 INCHES. THE
CONVECTION HAS ALSO SHOWN A TENDENCY TO SPLIT NEAR 18.15
DEGREES...BUT THE NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP THE
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO UNDER HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN UNTIL
THE WAVE PASSES AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY. ACCORDING TO THE NAM...THE
WIND SHIFT SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 16/15Z IN THE SAINT THOMAS AND NEAR
17/00Z IN MAYAGUEZ. THE GFS MAY BE UP TO 6 HOURS EARLIER. MODELS SHOW
30 KNOTS OF WIND AT 850 MB WITH THIS SYSTEM AND AS MUCH AS 40
KNOTS AT 700 MB. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE SHARPENING THE WAVE TOO
MUCH AND SO HAVE NOT ALLOWED THE WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME AS
SOUTHEAST AS IT WOULD HAVE PORTRAYED IT. THIS SHARPENING NEARLY
CREATES A TROPICAL STORM ONCE THE SYSTEM IS NORTHWEST OF US...WITH
UP TO 50 KNOTS OF WIND IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT THIS TO HAPPEN. THE GFS HAS A FAIRLY FLAT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH RAPIDLY WHICH IS ALMOST RIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SHOWS A SHORT
BREAK FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN BETTER MOISTURE COMES FROM THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A SECOND WAVE
ON MONDAY ALSO CARRIES MORE MOISTURE WITH IT...BUT THIS MOISTURE
TRAILS THE SYSTEM FOR QUITE SOME TIME AFTERWARD. EVEN WETTER THAN
THE GFS...THE ECMWF SHOWS ALMOST A CONTINUOUS SUPPLY OF MOISTURE
AT 850 MB FROM NOW THROUGH SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE TAKEN A
MORE MODERATE APPROACH WITH THE GRIDS BUT THE MIMIC PRODUCT DOES
SHOW THE SECOND WAVE MOVING HARD AND FAST BEHIND THE WIDE
WAVE/SURGE OF THIS WEEKEND. CURRENTLY IT IS AT ABOUT 32 DEGREES
WEST LONGITUDE. SO POPS REFLECT WHAT THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO
SHOW...A BETTER THAN 50-50 CHANCE OF RAIN EACH PERIOD IN THE EAST
FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND GOOD SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST. THAT SAID...THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT WILL RAIN
CONTINUOUSLY...ONLY THAT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME
IN EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT PR AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TAF
SITES THROUGH 16/00Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE NEAR TJMZ IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW TSRA WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED. AFT
16/00Z...BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ/TIST/TISX IN
PASSING SHOWERS. SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED +TSRA POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND TNCM/TKPK.
&&
.MARINE...SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE WAVE PASSAGE AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
AS WELL. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND
BUT WEATHER REMAINS FAIRLY WET AND SHOWERY.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST THU JUL 15 2010
.SYNOPSIS...RIDGING OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHEAST DIGGING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST WILL THEN WEDGE
ITSELF BETWEEN US AND THE TUTT TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
THE TUTT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY FOR NEARLY A WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...A TROUGH AROUND 55 WEST WILL MOVE UNDER A RIDGE
NORTH OF THE AREA AT 31 NORTH AND CROSS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. NEXT
WEDNESDAY ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE SAME POSITION AS THE FIRST WILL
ATTEMPT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE AND WIND SURGE IS RAPIDLY BEARING
DOWN ON THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY TONIGHT. THIS SAME WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
PUERTO RICO BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SECOND WAVE WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH FEATURES ARE WEAK
THEREAFTER...MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE DRY AIR SEEN IN THE 12Z SOUNDING DELAYED AND
WEAKENED THE CONVECTION OBSERVED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HEAVY
SHOWERS DID FORM IN LAJAS AND CABO ROJO AND SPOTTY SHOWERS WERE
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO FROM ADJUNTAS TO NAGUABO.
SHOWERS ALSO BEGAN TO COME ONSHORE IN PATILLAS FROM A LONG LINE OF
SHOWERS FROM SAINT THOMAS. THE MIMIC PRODUCT HAS BEEN SHOWING AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN 17 AND
22 NORTH LATITUDE AT AS MUCH AS 11 DEGREES PER DAY. CURRENTLY THE
CONVECTION SEEN ON IR IMAGERY IS MOVING...OR RATHER ADVANCING...AT
ABOUT 34 MILES PER HOUR AND WAS LOCATED BETWEEN 63 AND 55 DEGREES
WEST AND 18 TO ABOUT 20 DEGREES NORTH. THIS SIGNATURE LOOKS
SOMEWHAT LIKE WHAT SOME HAVE CALLED THE SCREAMING EAGLE AND
PROMISES TO BRING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
BEFORE DAYBREAK TOMORROW. WOULD ALSO EXPECT VERY GUSTY WINDS...
PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN SOME PLACES NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD
DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. WHILE AMOUNTS FROM THESE FAST
MOVING SHOWERS WILL NOT BE TREMENDOUS...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY
CERTAIN FROM CENTRAL PUERTO RICO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND SOME AREAS WILL HAVE A STORM TOTAL OF OVER 2.00 INCHES. THE
CONVECTION HAS ALSO SHOWN A TENDENCY TO SPLIT NEAR 18.15
DEGREES...BUT THE NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP THE
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO UNDER HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN UNTIL
THE WAVE PASSES AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY. ACCORDING TO THE NAM...THE
WIND SHIFT SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 16/15Z IN THE SAINT THOMAS AND NEAR
17/00Z IN MAYAGUEZ. THE GFS MAY BE UP TO 6 HOURS EARLIER. MODELS SHOW
30 KNOTS OF WIND AT 850 MB WITH THIS SYSTEM AND AS MUCH AS 40
KNOTS AT 700 MB. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE SHARPENING THE WAVE TOO
MUCH AND SO HAVE NOT ALLOWED THE WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME AS
SOUTHEAST AS IT WOULD HAVE PORTRAYED IT. THIS SHARPENING NEARLY
CREATES A TROPICAL STORM ONCE THE SYSTEM IS NORTHWEST OF US...WITH
UP TO 50 KNOTS OF WIND IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT THIS TO HAPPEN. THE GFS HAS A FAIRLY FLAT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH RAPIDLY WHICH IS ALMOST RIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SHOWS A SHORT
BREAK FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN BETTER MOISTURE COMES FROM THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A SECOND WAVE
ON MONDAY ALSO CARRIES MORE MOISTURE WITH IT...BUT THIS MOISTURE
TRAILS THE SYSTEM FOR QUITE SOME TIME AFTERWARD. EVEN WETTER THAN
THE GFS...THE ECMWF SHOWS ALMOST A CONTINUOUS SUPPLY OF MOISTURE
AT 850 MB FROM NOW THROUGH SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE TAKEN A
MORE MODERATE APPROACH WITH THE GRIDS BUT THE MIMIC PRODUCT DOES
SHOW THE SECOND WAVE MOVING HARD AND FAST BEHIND THE WIDE
WAVE/SURGE OF THIS WEEKEND. CURRENTLY IT IS AT ABOUT 32 DEGREES
WEST LONGITUDE. SO POPS REFLECT WHAT THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO
SHOW...A BETTER THAN 50-50 CHANCE OF RAIN EACH PERIOD IN THE EAST
FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND GOOD SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST. THAT SAID...THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT WILL RAIN
CONTINUOUSLY...ONLY THAT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME
IN EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT PR AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TAF
SITES THROUGH 16/00Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE NEAR TJMZ IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW TSRA WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED. AFT
16/00Z...BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ/TIST/TISX IN
PASSING SHOWERS. SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED +TSRA POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND TNCM/TKPK.
&&
.MARINE...SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE WAVE PASSAGE AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
AS WELL. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND
BUT WEATHER REMAINS FAIRLY WET AND SHOWERY.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145332
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ722-725-732-152215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.MA.W.0015.100715T2025Z-100715T2215Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
425 PM AST THU JUL 15 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM...
CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N...
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N...
* UNTIL 615 PM AST
* AT 417 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 50 KNOTS OR
GREATER OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE NORTHEAST OF SAINT JOHNS AND
SAINT CROIX MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 45 KNOTS. GUSTS TO 38 KNOTS WERE
REPORTED AT SAINT MARTIN AT 3 PM AS THIS LINE MOVED THROUGH
JULIANA AIRPORT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT ON THE
OPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED
METAL OBJECTS
AMZ722-725-732-152215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.MA.W.0015.100715T2025Z-100715T2215Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
425 PM AST THU JUL 15 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM...
CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N...
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N...
* UNTIL 615 PM AST
* AT 417 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 50 KNOTS OR
GREATER OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE NORTHEAST OF SAINT JOHNS AND
SAINT CROIX MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 45 KNOTS. GUSTS TO 38 KNOTS WERE
REPORTED AT SAINT MARTIN AT 3 PM AS THIS LINE MOVED THROUGH
JULIANA AIRPORT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT ON THE
OPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED
METAL OBJECTS
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145332
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AT
LEAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AT
LEAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145332
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1013 PM AST THU JUL 15 2010
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. TUTT LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL
ATLC IS TO AMPLIFY SW INTO THE REGION AND HELP MAINTAIN A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE MON NIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...TRADE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN A BRISK NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW. MOISTURE
ALSO TO INCREASE NEXT 24 HRS WITH PW VALUES RISING OVER 2.0 INCHES
OVR THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL WAVE TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TOMORROW AND SHOULD ENHANCE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.
OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE
REGION ESPECIALLY SAT AND SUN. SUBSIDENCE NOTED FOR SUN NIGHT AS
MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AHEAD OF A STRONGER WAVE CURRENTLY
ALONG 37W.
&&
.AVIATION...FAST MOVING SHRAS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT JSJ/JBQ IN
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. VERY WET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH TSRA LIKELY.
&&
.MARINE...SCA STILL IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS DUE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 9 FT.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1013 PM AST THU JUL 15 2010
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. TUTT LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL
ATLC IS TO AMPLIFY SW INTO THE REGION AND HELP MAINTAIN A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE MON NIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...TRADE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN A BRISK NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW. MOISTURE
ALSO TO INCREASE NEXT 24 HRS WITH PW VALUES RISING OVER 2.0 INCHES
OVR THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL WAVE TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TOMORROW AND SHOULD ENHANCE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.
OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE
REGION ESPECIALLY SAT AND SUN. SUBSIDENCE NOTED FOR SUN NIGHT AS
MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AHEAD OF A STRONGER WAVE CURRENTLY
ALONG 37W.
&&
.AVIATION...FAST MOVING SHRAS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT JSJ/JBQ IN
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. VERY WET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH TSRA LIKELY.
&&
.MARINE...SCA STILL IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS DUE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 9 FT.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145332
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
Good morning. A rainy day today in Puerto Rico.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST FRI JUL 16 2010
PRC017-021-029-031-033-047-051-054-061-087-091-101-119-127-135-137-
139-143-145-161200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0269.100716T0856Z-100716T1200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-COROZAL PR-FLORIDA PR-MOROVIS PR-TOA ALTA PR-
TRUJILLO ALTO PR-VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-BARCELONETA PR-GUAYNABO
PR-CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-MANATI PR-CATANO PR-VEGA BAJA PR-SAN
JUAN PR-LOIZA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-TOA BAJA PR-
456 AM AST FRI JUL 16 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...COROZAL...FLORIDA...MOROVIS...TOA ALTA...TRUJILLO
ALTO...VEGA ALTA...DORADO...BARCELONETA...GUAYNABO...
CANOVANAS...CAROLINA...MANATI...CATANO...VEGA BAJA...SAN JUAN...
LOIZA...RIO GRANDE AND TOA BAJA
* UNTIL 800 AM AST
* AT 454 AM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...AT LEAST UNTIL
8:00 AM AST.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST FRI JUL 16 2010
PRC017-021-029-031-033-047-051-054-061-087-091-101-119-127-135-137-
139-143-145-161200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0269.100716T0856Z-100716T1200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-COROZAL PR-FLORIDA PR-MOROVIS PR-TOA ALTA PR-
TRUJILLO ALTO PR-VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-BARCELONETA PR-GUAYNABO
PR-CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-MANATI PR-CATANO PR-VEGA BAJA PR-SAN
JUAN PR-LOIZA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-TOA BAJA PR-
456 AM AST FRI JUL 16 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...COROZAL...FLORIDA...MOROVIS...TOA ALTA...TRUJILLO
ALTO...VEGA ALTA...DORADO...BARCELONETA...GUAYNABO...
CANOVANAS...CAROLINA...MANATI...CATANO...VEGA BAJA...SAN JUAN...
LOIZA...RIO GRANDE AND TOA BAJA
* UNTIL 800 AM AST
* AT 454 AM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...AT LEAST UNTIL
8:00 AM AST.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145332
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC127-161245-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0064.100716T1002Z-100716T1245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
602 AM AST FRI JUL 16 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY
IN PUERTO RICO
SAN JUAN
* UNTIL 845 AM AST
* AT 556 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES AND U.S.G.S.
GAGES INDICATE THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER
SOME AREAS AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED.
THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA...INCLUDING THE RIO PIEDRAS.
FOR THE RIO PIEDRAS NEAR HATO REY- RPOP4
FLOOD STAGE - 15 FEET.
AT 555 AM AST THE USGS SENSOR INDICATED THE RIVER HAD RISEN
TO...13.03 FEET AND WAS RISING STEADILY. IT WILL LIKELY REACH
FLOOD STAGE BY 630 AM.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.
PRC127-161245-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0064.100716T1002Z-100716T1245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
602 AM AST FRI JUL 16 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY
IN PUERTO RICO
SAN JUAN
* UNTIL 845 AM AST
* AT 556 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES AND U.S.G.S.
GAGES INDICATE THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER
SOME AREAS AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED.
THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA...INCLUDING THE RIO PIEDRAS.
FOR THE RIO PIEDRAS NEAR HATO REY- RPOP4
FLOOD STAGE - 15 FEET.
AT 555 AM AST THE USGS SENSOR INDICATED THE RIVER HAD RISEN
TO...13.03 FEET AND WAS RISING STEADILY. IT WILL LIKELY REACH
FLOOD STAGE BY 630 AM.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145332
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
644 AM AST FRI JUL 16 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY AND THEN AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RATHER BUSY MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...AS
A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AND FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH THE TUTT. THIS WAVE AND
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THESE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY AND PART OF TONIGHT...TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. RATHER
QUICK CELL MOTION SHOULD KEEP MOST FLOODING LOCALIZED...BUT
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND TRAINING OF ECHOES HAS ALREADY BEEN AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM TODAY AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE LOCAL AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS AND GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND CONDITIONS...TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. LOOKING AHEAD...A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
PROBABLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE BANDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS BANDS OF SHOWERS AND INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES...MVFR
AND EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR TODAY AND THROUGH AT
LEAST PART OF TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 15 TO 21 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 4
TO 9 FEET ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY ROUGH
AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
SJUCWFSJU FOR THE LATEST FORECAST DETAILS.
&&
.SITE SUPPORT...THE XXI CENTRAL AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN SPORT
GAMES MAYAGUEZ 2010 KICK OFF IN MAYAGUEZ ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE OPENING CEREMONY AT 300 PM AST. THE GAMES WILL THEN RUN
THROUGH SUNDAY AUGUST 1. WFO SAN JUAN WILL BE PROVIDING ON SITE
AND IN OFFICE SUPPORT TO THE PUERTO RICO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCY (PREMA) AND OTHER FEDERAL AGENCIES THROUGH THIS EVENT.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
644 AM AST FRI JUL 16 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY AND THEN AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RATHER BUSY MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...AS
A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AND FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH THE TUTT. THIS WAVE AND
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THESE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY AND PART OF TONIGHT...TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. RATHER
QUICK CELL MOTION SHOULD KEEP MOST FLOODING LOCALIZED...BUT
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND TRAINING OF ECHOES HAS ALREADY BEEN AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM TODAY AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE LOCAL AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS AND GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND CONDITIONS...TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. LOOKING AHEAD...A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
PROBABLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE BANDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS BANDS OF SHOWERS AND INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES...MVFR
AND EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR TODAY AND THROUGH AT
LEAST PART OF TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 15 TO 21 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 4
TO 9 FEET ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY ROUGH
AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
SJUCWFSJU FOR THE LATEST FORECAST DETAILS.
&&
.SITE SUPPORT...THE XXI CENTRAL AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN SPORT
GAMES MAYAGUEZ 2010 KICK OFF IN MAYAGUEZ ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE OPENING CEREMONY AT 300 PM AST. THE GAMES WILL THEN RUN
THROUGH SUNDAY AUGUST 1. WFO SAN JUAN WILL BE PROVIDING ON SITE
AND IN OFFICE SUPPORT TO THE PUERTO RICO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCY (PREMA) AND OTHER FEDERAL AGENCIES THROUGH THIS EVENT.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145332
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
905 AM AST FRI JUL 16 2010
PRC029-037-053-069-077-085-089-103-119-129-161500-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0270.100716T1305Z-100716T1500Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JUNCOS PR-SAN LORENZO PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-LUQUILLO PR-NAGUABO PR-
CEIBA PR-CANOVANAS PR-FAJARDO PR-HUMACAO PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
905 AM AST FRI JUL 16 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
JUNCOS...SAN LORENZO...LAS PIEDRAS...LUQUILLO...NAGUABO...
CEIBA...CANOVANAS...FAJARDO...HUMACAO AND RIO GRANDE
* UNTIL 1100 AM AST
* AT 903 AM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS SHOULD THEY BECOME
NECESSARY.
&&
LAT...LON 1812 6597 1831 6588 1840 6561 1824 6558
1817 6558
$$
SNELL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
905 AM AST FRI JUL 16 2010
PRC029-037-053-069-077-085-089-103-119-129-161500-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0270.100716T1305Z-100716T1500Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JUNCOS PR-SAN LORENZO PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-LUQUILLO PR-NAGUABO PR-
CEIBA PR-CANOVANAS PR-FAJARDO PR-HUMACAO PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
905 AM AST FRI JUL 16 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
JUNCOS...SAN LORENZO...LAS PIEDRAS...LUQUILLO...NAGUABO...
CEIBA...CANOVANAS...FAJARDO...HUMACAO AND RIO GRANDE
* UNTIL 1100 AM AST
* AT 903 AM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS SHOULD THEY BECOME
NECESSARY.
&&
LAT...LON 1812 6597 1831 6588 1840 6561 1824 6558
1817 6558
$$
SNELL
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Looks like some decent rains over PR at the moment there Gustywind!
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re:
KWT wrote:Looks like some decent rains over PR at the moment there Gustywind!
Absolutely KWT that's why i was saying that to Luis
! Meanwhile a twave should approach the Northern Windwards (Martinica) and much of the Leewards islands tonight but especially tommorow. Isolated cells of tstorms have tried to developp a few minutes ago. Wet weekend is anticipated in Guadeloupe given Meteo-France latest weather forecast, we shall see...
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Also a lot of cells over C/W Caribbean right now, its a pretty disturbed picture out there once again with a lot of convection, reminds me of what it was like down there pre-TD2.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re:
KWT wrote:Also a lot of cells over C/W Caribbean right now, its a pretty disturbed picture out there once again with a lot of convection, reminds me of what it was like down there pre-TD2.
Right
nice analysis, yeah pre TD2, looks like things continue to heat up in this second part of July, we could see maybe at least one tstorm named if the conditions are improving in the Atlantic. But let's first wait and see...
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