Florida Weather

[O Town]

First day above 70 deg here in Orlando since New Year's eve, it felt great.

Yes, yes and YES!!!!!
Finally some relief from the cold air. I would much rather be sweating bullets than shivering to the core.
More 70's heading our way too.

[NDG]

Yeap, more 70+ wx through at least the next 7-10 days with no freezes for central FL.
As long as the NAO stays neutral or even slightly positive as forecasted by the models, we should be free of any freezes through the next 2 weeks. But we are still in an El Nino pattern, so don't be surprised if a day or two over the couple of weeks stays cloudy and cool during the day with a rainy pattern still in play.

[JonathanBelles]

Its HOT! All the windows in my house are open and the fans are on high, and its still too warm! yuck!

[jinftl]

I go to Australia for 2 weeks and all heck brakes loose....or freezes over....while I am gone. Left New Year's and got back last night.

Looking over the numbers and the posts....it is really the incredible duration that most stands out to me. If it weren't for the blip last Friday with a high temp of 74 deg between fronts in Miami, that would have made 12 days in around with highs under 70....instead we had a string of 6 days and then a string of 5 days. Three nights in the 30's and one high temp of 48 deg in Miami during the 2nd cold wave is very impressive as well.

Just as impressive is that today was actually above normal :

Today's high/low (departure from normal)
Miami: 79/63 (+3)
Fort Lauderdale: 79/67 (+6)
West Palm Beach: 79/64 (+6)
Naples: 79/55 (+3)


Looks like we will start to eat away at the huge below normal month-to-date temp deficit this upcoming week....per NWS Miami, coolest low temp forecast through next Friday in Miami is a very seasonable 60 deg.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE FRONT MOVES
FURTHER SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. A SIGNIFICANT COOLING,
HOWEVER, SHOULD NOT BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS FALLING TO NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
U.S. WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY WITH THE
LOW WIND FLOW TURNING MORE ESE BY MID-WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...INTO OUR AREA WED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html
A large area of thunderstorms and rain over the SE Gulf

[jinftl]

Mother Nature will continue to try and balance out the cold we experienced down here for the first half of the month...

From NWS Miami Discussion:

OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER OVER THE
AREA...PROMISING A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. GFS/ECWMF
SHOW A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AGAIN MAIN ENERGY LOOKS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.

LITTLE COOLING AGAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. SO AFTER A COLD FIRST HALF OF
JANUARY...THE SECOND HALF LOOKS TO REMAIN WARM.

[Dean4Storms]

NWS Mobile, AL late afternoon AFD.......

OUR ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO BREAK OFF
FROM THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF OF THE WEST COAST AND QUICKLY MOVE
EAST IN THE ZONAL FLOW. THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING
THE ARKLATEX BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. A VERY IMPRESSIVE 170 KT 250 MB JET IS
FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND BEGIN NOSING INTO OUR REGION BY
LATE WED AFTN/EARLY EVENING...PLACING US IN THE DIVERGENT LEFT EXIT
REGION. MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...PERHAPS AS HIGH
AS 50 KT WILL HELP TO RAPIDLY INCREASE OUR PRECIP WATERS TO OVER 1.50
INCHES. THE INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW A WARM FRONT
MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INLAND AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AT THE SAME TIME...SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES
ARE SHOWN BY THE GUIDANCE TO BEGIN SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST.
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF NEAR 7 C/KM ARE POSSIBLE WITH 800-500 MB
LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE AROUND 6.5-6.75 C/KM. SO EVEN
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SFC TEMPS (ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
OVERNIGHT TIMING)...MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE. DEPENDING
ON THE EVOLUTION OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS...MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
COULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. IF THIS IS THE CASE...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 45-50 KT WILL BE SUPPORTED OF THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.
IF INSTABILITY CAN BECOME SFC BASED...THEN A DAMAGING WIND AND
TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP GIVEN THE BACKED SFC WINDS NEAR THE
WARM FRONT HELPING TO SUPPORT 0-1 KM HELICITIES OF 300-400 M2/S2. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ANY SLIGHT
TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...COULD GREATLY ALTER THE CURRENT
FORECAST SETUP.



I just don't see it for the FL Panhandle, the Continental Shelf in the Gulf is very cool and I think any severe weather will be up inland by at least 75 miles or so.

[JonathanBelles]

There were 4 unconfirmed tornadoes and 1 very large downburst last night. Leaves are coming down all over the place. I dont know if its fall winter or spring! lol

[jinftl]

Quite a change from just last week! Not only that, but today’s prelim high/low of 86/74 is on track to be the warmest January day since January 2, 1996 when the high/low was 86/75!!!



RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI, FL
510 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2010

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT MIAMI...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 86 DEGREES WAS SET AT MIAMI TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 86 SET IN 1990.

[jinftl]

Nice rebound in sea surface temps in the last week or so...image on top is as of today, image on bottom is as of last Satuday...

[JonathanBelles]

1/5th (estimated) of a mile visibility "pea Soup" right now with a dense fog advisory out throgh 9am.

[Patrick99]

Face it, since the abnormally cold first half of January, the weather has done a complete 180 in the second half of the month. It has been warm.....and the mornings have been really, really damp too....fog, foggy car windows, everything dripping with dew - the kind of mornings you expect in April or early May.

[jinftl]

With highs in the 80s and lows in the 70s the last 3 days, you are right, we are talking late spring temps and humidity!!!

The front that will pass through tomorrow will bear no resemblance to the fronts we saw in early January....instead we will see temps South Florida maybe fall to a few degrees below normal for a 36 to 48-hour period starting Monday night....that means highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 50s. By Wednesday Night, the winds will veer to the east, nipping even that level of cool down in the bud. Even north of us, this cool down does not carry a freeze threat....lows in the central peninsula citrus regions shouldn't fall lower than the 40s.

Face it, since the abnormally cold first half of January, the weather has done a complete 180 in the second half of the month. It has been warm.....and the mornings have been really, really damp too....fog, foggy car windows, everything dripping with dew - the kind of mornings you expect in April or early May.

[Sanibel]

Humidity is up in the 80's and dew point 68. Big swing from the record cold snap.


I love it when in the other thread you have people congratulating themselves on Global Warming being a hoax but then sheer silence when a pure example of Amplitude occurs with record lows and highs in close proximity. The silence is deafening.

[Patrick99]

Humidity is up in the 80's and dew point 68. Big swing from the record cold snap.


I love it when in the other thread you have people congratulating themselves on Global Warming being a hoax but then sheer silence when a pure example of Amplitude occurs with record lows and highs in close proximity. The silence is deafening.

Yeah, not only that, and the idea they seem to harbor that the local Florida weather for a few days, whether warm or cold, has a substantial impact on the average global temperature So many people can't see anything beyond what is immediately in front of them. Florida is abnormally cold!!! See, not only does that DISPROVE global warming, in fact, it's proof of a new ICE AGE!!!! The idea that while we were below normal, someone else was most likely above normal, is lost on them.

[JonathanBelles]

Looking at the wunderground stations, and I found numerous sations were between 35-38mph gusts, with a select few at or above Tropical Storm Force gusts. Highest I have seen here is 36mph. Sustained winds between 20-25mph.

[psyclone]

the warm up sure felt nice this weekend and is a much deserved payback after the cold weather. As for Sanibel's reference to global warming, perhaps alot of folks are just worn out from the hysteria.. i know i am.

[dizzyfish]

Bingo!

[Sihara]

Humidity is up in the 80's and dew point 68. Big swing from the record cold snap.


I love it when in the other thread you have people congratulating themselves on Global Warming being a hoax but then sheer silence when a pure example of Amplitude occurs with record lows and highs in close proximity. The silence is deafening.

Yeah, not only that, and the idea they seem to harbor that the local Florida weather for a few days, whether warm or cold, has a substantial impact on the average global temperature So many people can't see anything beyond what is immediately in front of them. Florida is abnormally cold!!! See, not only does that DISPROVE global warming, in fact, it's proof of a new ICE AGE!!!! The idea that while we were below normal, someone else was most likely above normal, is lost on them.

Yeah, really - kind of irritating. But OTOH pscyclone has a point about the hysteria. When you think about it, it's counterproductive. There should be analytical evaluation of what's going on, if it's an imminent threat, and best methods of dealing with it without negatively impacting quality of life. It can be done, while offering opportunities along the way.

Anyway, it was great to have such nice weather for the weekend, but the front is bringing cooler temps. I've already noticed on noaa-radio, the cooler trend and the possibility of patchy frost for Central FL for Tuesday night.

This is definitely not what I wanted to hear

[jinftl]

With all of the bitter cold and winter weather in the carolinas and mid-atlantic, it would almost be expected that a major chill down would be on its way for south florida......not the case this go around as there is really no atmospheric support to drive the winter chill down the peninsula like we saw a few weeks ago. In fact, there are no low temps lower than the 60s in the 7-day forecast for south florida and high temps will remain in the 70s to near 80, only cooled a few degrees in scattered rainshowers.

Per NWS Miami:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
358 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2010

...CORRECTED TO UPDATE PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS TABLE...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TO THE
LOCATION...MOVEMENT AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER OF THE COLD FNT
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEX. LEADING EDGE
OF COLD FNT SHOULD REACH OKEECHOBEE REGION TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...MOST ENERGY WILL BE TRANSFERRED NORTHEASTWARD AND SO THE FRNT SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST WEATHER
SHOULD ALSO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER SCT SHWRS
AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD STILL DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...WL
EXPECT MOST SHWRS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
SHOULD THEN MOVE TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF SOUTH FLORIDA OR
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND STALL DUE TO LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
THIS MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS.