Texas Summer 2012

[Portastorm]

:uarrow:

You know, I'm just not sure how common it is to see major "weather" in south central Texas as a result of a named tropical system from the Atlantic basin. I do recall one Pacific hurricane during an El Nino year which really hammered us good in like October or something. I mean, I've lived in Austin since 1984 and in that time there haven't been many named systems which caused severe or significant weather here in town. In fact, my brother calls me "The Great Deflector" due to this. Hey may be right because I can only name three systems, all tropical storms, which created some nasty weather here ... and that is in 28 years!

Systems would be: TS Hermine in 2010 was cool. I recall TS Erin in 2007 gave us some decent winds/rains albeit brief. TS Frances in 1997 gave us some decent rains here in Austin.

Maybe I shouldn't mention this because I know it will just depress you Portastorm, but don't forget this happens with winter precipitaion too, how many times do snow storms just miss us or even go south of us?

Thanks buddy ... let me just go find a noose now, ok?!

On an more upbeat note ... morning AFDs out of Texas NWSFOs as well as the GFS are advertising perhaps the first real cold front of the autumn season for next weekend (Sept. 8-9) for Texas. Will watch with great interest!

[Rgv20]

Hopefully we can get some widespread Rain!

"A BIT OF RELIEF MAY BE ON THE WAY FOR SATURDAY HOWEVER. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE ALLOWING A BURST OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS ENERGY WILL MOVE WEST AND
NORTH TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...STILL AIDED SOMEWHAT BY INFLOW
TO ISAAC...BUT MOSTLY PROPELLED NORTHWEST BY MOVEMENT AROUND THE
DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE CELL ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BUMPED RAIN CHANCES
UP ANOTHER TEN PERCENT...TO 40 PERCENT...FOR SECTIONS OF THE CWA ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWING THE UPWARD MOVEMENT OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS. DAY
TIME TEMPS SHOULD BE A SCOSCHE LESS ON SATURDAY THAN TODAY...BUT
HIGH DEW POINTS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105 TO 109 RANGE
IN SOME AREAS."

[Rgv20]

Front might make it this far south Porta!

"A PATTERN CHANGE MIGHT BE IN THE OFFERING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES OUT OF CANADA AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A DECENT LOOKING COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE JURY IS STILL
OUT ON IF THIS FRONT MAKES IT TO SOUTH TEXAS. GFS REMAINS THE MOST
CONSISTENT AND STRONGEST WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE
SLOWER ON THE SOUTHWARD POSITION. THE CANADIAN IS ALSO TRENDING
STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE. AN INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW IF THIS SHORTWAVE/FRONT DOES
MATERIALIZE."

[somethingfunny]

Cold front looks like it means business next weekend. I'm wondering if something spins up in the Gulf the following week as that front decays though.

[weatherdude1108]

"STAY TUNED."

000
FXUS64 KEWX 011957
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
257 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG
A CONVERGENCE ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...BUT A FEW COULD
DRIFT AS FAR INLAND AS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE STORMS WILL WANE IN
AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND CURRENTLY
EXPECT A LULL IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE
LIMITED TO ISOLATED COVERAGE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS UPPER RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS
PERCHED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S./NRN MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY A FEW
DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 100 AND LOWS IN THE 70S. THE 12Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL SUPPORT A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE UPPER
PATTERN JUST BEYOND THE EXTENT OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE. THE GFS
SUGGESTS THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER
PLAINS STATES NEXT WEEKEND WILL DEVELOP INTO A CUT-OFF LOW
ACROSS THE MID-WEST A FEW DAYS LATER. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE TROUGH AXIS CONNECTED TO THE BROADER FLOW ALOFT WITH THE
CENTER OF THE LOW PUSHING ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND DRAGS THE COLD
FRONT INTO OUR AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN SEPT 9/10. WHILE THESE
SOLUTIONS ARE DISTINCTLY DIFFERENT...THEY BOTH STILL AGREE ON SOME
SORT OF COLD FRONT FOR OUR AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN 8 TO 10 DAYS FROM
TODAY. STAY TUNED.

[Portastorm]

Encouraging signs, guys. That front does look like the real deal per the GFS and Euro, although the former is stronger with it. Yeah, that would be awesome to see the first one of the fall season.

[vbhoutex]

Encouraging signs, guys. That front does look like the real deal per the GFS and Euro, although the former is stronger with it. Yeah, that would be awesome to see the first one of the fall season.

Ok, what do we classify as a cold front or "the first one of the season"? We've already had on "cold front" make it off the coast. Not that there was anything "cold" about it.

[Ntxw]

Changes are coming folks. After this last bout of warmth, expect a wet footing to begin following the strengthening of the weak El Nino thus far. Global IR showing beloved Aleutian storms taking shape fed by Wpac convection. Fall is coming early this year imo

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/i ... anim.shtml

[weatherdude1108]

[Portastorm]

Changes are coming folks. After this last bout of warmth, expect a wet footing to begin following the strengthening of the weak El Nino thus far. Global IR showing beloved Aleutian storms taking shape fed by Wpac convection. Fall is coming early this year imo

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/i ... anim.shtml

I *thought* so too but I have read some things on other forums suggesting that the probable weak Nino may be delayed some. Larry Cosgrove in his forecast issued last night thinks we're looking at a central to west based Nino coming with a cool autumn and early winter.

[Nikki]

"STAY TUNED."

000
FXUS64 KEWX 011957
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
257 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG
A CONVERGENCE ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...BUT A FEW COULD
DRIFT AS FAR INLAND AS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE STORMS WILL WANE IN
AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND CURRENTLY
EXPECT A LULL IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE
LIMITED TO ISOLATED COVERAGE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS UPPER RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS
PERCHED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S./NRN MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY A FEW
DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 100 AND LOWS IN THE 70S. THE 12Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL SUPPORT A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE UPPER
PATTERN JUST BEYOND THE EXTENT OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE. THE GFS
SUGGESTS THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER
PLAINS STATES NEXT WEEKEND WILL DEVELOP INTO A CUT-OFF LOW
ACROSS THE MID-WEST A FEW DAYS LATER. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE TROUGH AXIS CONNECTED TO THE BROADER FLOW ALOFT WITH THE
CENTER OF THE LOW PUSHING ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND DRAGS THE COLD
FRONT INTO OUR AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN SEPT 9/10. WHILE THESE
SOLUTIONS ARE DISTINCTLY DIFFERENT...THEY BOTH STILL AGREE ON SOME
SORT OF COLD FRONT FOR OUR AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN 8 TO 10 DAYS FROM
TODAY. STAY TUNED.

It cannot get here fast enough!!!!

[Ntxw]

I *thought* so too but I have read some things on other forums suggesting that the probable weak Nino may be delayed some. Larry Cosgrove in his forecast issued last night thinks we're looking at a central to west based Nino coming with a cool autumn and early winter.

Delay or not the Nino anomalies are present in the tropical Pacific. Even a weak Nino has it's influences just not as pronounced as a moderate Nino. Remember weak Nino state allows cool air to build in Western Canada vs a moderate which is the state I believe we are in. Week to week basis sure it changes or lack thereof but the overall gist is that we indeed are slowly working into a growing semi persistent PNA+ state that began in mid August.

Central based Nino in a cold PDO has always been the most likely outcome

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/s ... .week.html

[Portastorm]

Encouraging signs, guys. That front does look like the real deal per the GFS and Euro, although the former is stronger with it. Yeah, that would be awesome to see the first one of the fall season.

Ok, what do we classify as a cold front or "the first one of the season"? We've already had on "cold front" make it off the coast. Not that there was anything "cold" about it.

My sense is that this is a debatable point. IMO, the first real cold front of the season is the one which clearly sweeps through the state and doesn't "ooze" through the state. It knocks down dewpoints and temperatures to below normal to normal values and literally breaks the back of summer. I know some years we don't really see those kinds of fronts. But to me, that is what the first "real" cold front of the season would be.

Anyone else?

[South Texas Storms]

I pretty much agree with you on that Porta. It's too early to tell right now if the cold front coming this weekend will be our first real cold front of the season.

[vbhoutex]

Pretty good definition Portastorm. I especially like "breaks the back of summer!!". Last front did some of that, but obviously not all of it, since we are expecting triple digits all over Texas this week before the "cold front" comes through.

[Ntxw]

If my AC turns off on it's own for 24 hours after frontal passage, that's a real front to me

[Portastorm]

I'll be curious to read the AFDs this afternoon out of Texas NWSFOs about this coming weekend's front. The 12z Euro is now fully onboard with a clear fropa ... in fact, it seems to blast the front through the state. Earlier, the GFS was the more bullish medium-range model while the Euro was less enthusiastic. They both now seem similar to suggest a definite front on Saturday.

[Ntxw]

Well latest GFS and Euro both are showing 50s for lows in the Red River valley and low 60s as far south as Houston! I'm not sure I believe it yet because that is quite low for this time of year, regardless it's there

[Tireman4]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Summer heat will make a stand this week with high pressure in control both aloft and at the surface. Upper ridge will build into the area from the NW producing subsidence across the region and eliminating any chance of rainfall. At the surface high pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to pump in a humid southerly flow keeping dewpoints on the high side. Lack of significant cloud cover will allow afternoon temperatures to top out in the 97-102 range each afternoon this week. High dewpoints and surface RH will result in afternoon heat index values at or above 105. Only relief will be a slight SSW to SW surface flow in the 10-15mph range. No chance of rainfall is expected through Thursday.

Toward the end of the week into the weekend, the ridge over the western US amplifies allowing a deep trough for this time of year to develop across the eastern US. Cold air for early September standards will begin to move southward down the plains this week and a cold front will arrive into TX by Friday/Saturday. Upper pattern looks fairly favorable for the first cold frontal passage of the upcoming fall/winter season in the Saturday time period. Moisture does begin to pool along and ahead of this boundary late Friday into Saturday, but GFS guidance is not overly impressive on rain chances (30-40%). This is still several days away, and better dynamics and moisture may be found over the next few days to raise rain chances. Bigger news will be the much drier and yes “cooler” air mass that will move into the area. Not ready to go as cool as some of the guidance as it is still early and such fronts tend to look stronger in the extended range only to show up in a much weaker state. For now will go with the front pushing off the coast late Saturday or early Sunday with gusty NW winds in its wake. Low temperatures look to fall into the low to mid 60’s for Sunday morning into early next week with high temps in the lower 90’s, could see cooler highs in the 80’s if the thrust of the cooler air is more southward than SE.

TS Leslie:
Large tropical storm continues to sit and spin over the open Atlantic waters north of the Leeward Islands. Leslie has been undergoing NW shear for the past 3 days which has continued to remove the thunderstorm activity to the south of the center of circulation. Leslie is also caught in a region of very weak steering with a trough bypassing her to the NNE and high pressure building down from the E coast of the US over the top of the system blocking any northward motion. In fact there is likely to be little motion over the next 3-4 days until the central/E US trough that drives the cold front into TX this weekend begins to affect the system by Day 5. At that time Leslie should begin to move at a slightly faster speed to the NNW or NW ahead of this approaching trough. The large wind field and slow storm motion will produce increasing swells along the entire US east coast over the next 5-7 days.


http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f= ... 4&start=20

[Rgv20]

Encouraging signs, guys. That front does look like the real deal per the GFS and Euro, although the former is stronger with it. Yeah, that would be awesome to see the first one of the fall season.

Ok, what do we classify as a cold front or "the first one of the season"? We've already had on "cold front" make it off the coast. Not that there was anything "cold" about it.

My sense is that this is a debatable point. IMO, the first real cold front of the season is the one which clearly sweeps through the state and doesn't "ooze" through the state. It knocks down dewpoints and temperatures to below normal to normal values and literally breaks the back of summer. I know some years we don't really see those kinds of fronts. But to me, that is what the first "real" cold front of the season would be.

Anyone else?

A little late to the discussion....Yesterday afternoon the NWS in Brownsville had a good explanation at what they consider a cold front in the RGV by September standards..

"LOOKING AT RIO GRANDE
VALLEY COLD FRONT CLIMATOLOGY FOR SEPTEMBER...AN AVERAGE OF 2 COLD
FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE VALLEY IN ANY GIVEN SEPTEMBER. THE FRONTS
ARE USUALLY WEAK BY THE TIME THEY ARRIVE LOWERING TEMPERATURES AN
AVERAGE OF 5 DEGREES."