Texas Spring 2016

[weatherdude1108]

Happy April Fools day everyone! That's as much as I'm able to do as I'm not good in fooling people lol.

After today, looks like the rain faucet will be shut off for at least the next 7 days. I'd like to see this month a little wetter since it sets up for May which is on average the wettest month of the year for Austin.

Yeah, I always get nervous when there is a long dry period. We ended up with 0.67 in gauge over past week.

[Texas Snowman]

Looks like we've hit 37 degrees this morning here in Denison (so far). May be the last time we're in the 30s until next fall.

[wxman57]

Pretty darn cold this morning as I prepare to head out on my bike (62 deg). I'd much rather be taking off with the temperature at 92 deg. The cold won't last too long, though. Last temperature below 50 degrees for the 2015-2016 winter, most likely. 90s are just around the corner.

Subtropical storm in the central Atlantic next Thursday?

[South Texas Storms]

Pretty darn cold this morning as I prepare to head out on my bike (62 deg). I'd much rather be taking off with the temperature at 92 deg. The cold won't last too long, though. Last temperature below 50 degrees for the 2015-2016 winter, most likely. 90s are just around the corner.

Subtropical storm in the central Atlantic next Thursday?

I don't know about that. For one, tonight's low will likely fall into the upper 40s in Houston. And the 90s are likely over 2 weeks away.

[TheProfessor]

I love cold during the winter time, I really do, but when it gets to April I really don't want the temperature to get below 50 during the day and 47 degrees with wind and rain is fine with my jacket on, it isn't even cold. But a sleet storm, even at 47 degree, with 50 mph wind gusts is no bueno. It's quite painful actually and it froze my legs.

[TheAustinMan]

Woke up this morning to some delightful weather for early April with temperatures in the mid-40s! Around this time last year the lows were in the upper 50s to low 60s. Though it's expected to warm up slightly here, weather conditions are forecast to be quite pleasant this week, though I am looking forward to our next opportunity for rain as we are starting to fall behind the averages here. Looks like there may be a minor shot at rainfall mid-week next week followed by a larger system next weekend.

Subtropical storm in the central Atlantic next Thursday?

Been following the GFS' modelling of this system for the past week, and it's been a pretty persistent feature. Would love to see another cyclone join Tropical Storm Ana's exclusive April club

[somethingfunny]

Where's the 100's? I'm freezing

In more serious matters... FWD is trying their hand at forecasting the entire month... I wanna see how this goes lol

http://i65.tinypic.com/qxo1sp.jpg

I really like this forecast product.

[Ntxw]

La Nina is coming. Very early in the game looks like a moderate event. What's left of the El Nino is all but a thin sheet of warmth near the surface.

[TheProfessor]

La Nina is coming. Very early in the game looks like a moderate event. What's left of the El Nino is all but a thin sheet of warmth near the surface.

[img]http://i68.tinypic.com/2n6euzm.jpg

I don't no a lot about La Nina's, but from what I'm hearing from people around my area is that I do not want a west based Nina, so I'm hoping it's not going to be a west based Nina.

[Ntxw]

La Nina is coming. Very early in the game looks like a moderate event. What's left of the El Nino is all but a thin sheet of warmth near the surface.

[img]http://i68.tinypic.com/2n6euzm.jpg

I don't no a lot about La Nina's, but from what I'm hearing from people around my area is that I do not want a west based Nina, so I'm hoping it's not going to be a west based Nina.

I haven't read the papers on La Nina yet, there are more El Nino published works as the meteorological community seems to be more fascinated with El Nino than La Nina in general (Hence events are called ENSO by NOAA; El Nino southern oscillation by default) . But this will be a fun case to follow especially since it is an extreme transition from a historic Nino to a very big Nina. Weather extremes. I too am interested on how different NIna's behave as well.

[JDawg512]

I have a bad feeling we are heading right into another prolonged drought albiet not as bad as the 2011-13 drought.

[Ntxw]

I have a bad feeling we are heading right into another prolonged drought albiet not as bad as the 2011-13 drought.

This year may be dry. Often very wet near record years (2015) are followed by the other extreme. Most recently 2003, 2005, 2008, and 2010 were dry compared to the previous wet years 2002, 2004, 2007, 2009. All four were over 40" at DFW, follow by years with near or less than 30". So far. DFW, Austin, Houston, San Antonio are all running 1-3" below normal through the first 3 months of the year. So that proves your hunch may be correct.

Unless the +PDO can remain despite the Nina. If that is the case then we stand a better chance such as what occurred from 1989-1993. The important thing is to get enough rains the next 2-3 months enough to sustain through summer. Later this year will gradually get drier as the La Nina matures. Our 12 month rain dance with the Nino is over it's becoming more evident with the under performing QPF forecasts..Last year the 3-5" bullseyes were basically a weekly occurrence.

[Ntxw]

On a brighter note, the next signal for a pattern conducive to rainfall will likely happen mid April after the 10th. Pretty blase until then, however.

[South Texas Storms]

I have a bad feeling we are heading right into another prolonged drought albiet not as bad as the 2011-13 drought.

This year may be dry. Often very wet near record years (2015) are followed by the other extreme. Most recently 2003, 2005, 2008, and 2010 were dry compared to the previous wet years 2002, 2004, 2007, 2009. All four were over 40" at DFW, follow by years with near or less than 30". So far. DFW, Austin, Houston, San Antonio are all running 1-3" below normal through the first 3 months of the year. So that proves your hunch may be correct.

Unless the +PDO can remain despite the Nina. If that is the case then we stand a better chance such as what occurred from 1989-1993. The important thing is to get enough rains the next 2-3 months enough to sustain through summer. Later this year will gradually get drier as the La Nina matures. Our 12 month rain dance with the Nino is over it's becoming more evident with the under performing QPF forecasts..Last year the 3-5" bullseyes were basically a weekly occurrence.

San Antonio is actually slightly above average right now.

And I agree that a wet weather pattern will likely return after April 10th. We could be quite stormy through May.

[Ntxw]

And I agree that a wet weather pattern will likely return after April 10th. We could be quite stormy through May.

Ahh you're right, I clicked Mabry after Bergstrom thinking I hit SA . Hold out!

I do hope it is a 1 year rendezvous with the Nina, we need to avoid the second year Ninas. Those years were brutal summers and long periods of little rain. Our last 2 second year Ninas were brutal. 1999 and 2011.

[weatherdude1108]

All this talk of La Nina is making me look forward to the next El Nino.

[Brent]

ah the DFW dry hole is back...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im with Ntx. We need to get a good head start going into the summer with lots of rain or steady rains. Almost any summer could be a threat or long periods with no rain no matter what kind of season. A bit worried about the later half of the hurricane season for sure

[Lagreeneyes03]

Im with Ntx. We need to get a good head start going into the summer with lots of rain or steady rains. Almost any summer could be a threat or long periods with no rain no matter what kind of season. A bit worried about the later half of the hurricane season for sure

Are we going to have a neutral period at all this year? That's what could be scary during the Hurricane season. Andrew, Katrina, Rita, Wilma,

[TheProfessor]

Im with Ntx. We need to get a good head start going into the summer with lots of rain or steady rains. Almost any summer could be a threat or long periods with no rain no matter what kind of season. A bit worried about the later half of the hurricane season for sure

Are we going to have a neutral period at all this year? That's what could be scary during the Hurricane season. Andrew, Katrina, Rita, Wilma,

Right now I don't think the El Nino will collapse straight into La Nina, so I think we will spend some time in neutral. According to my professor (who does extensive hurricane research) La Nina's themselves aren't always conducive to Hurricanes (This might only be in a certain area of the Atlantic or Caribbean, I can't remember) but he says that La Ninas can produce the same wind shear environments that El Ninos do, just in the opposite direction. Of course the position of the La Nina and strength can and probably does have a major factor on the tropics just like El Nino.