STORM2K

2.91 inches at the casa from midnight to 7:45 am this morning.

8.44 inches since last Saturday August 13th.

It is pudding in areas of my yard that don't usually puddle.

As much as I don't like to admit it, and as much I love the rain, we could use just a LITTLE break from it.

TheProfessor wrote:Hello everyone, I just moved into my dorm today. I will be starting my first met class in a few days so I'm super excited. I finally tried The Blue Danube that Porta told me about a year ago and it was really good, It was only the 2nd Diner I've been to but it's the best one so far.

Happy to hear that you're getting settled in up there and that you tried the Blue Danube. Hey buddy,, I'm not going to lead you wrong! Good luck on the met classes and study hard ... you'll be a blue tag here before you know it and you'll be educating the rest of us.

The weather around here this August has been one of the best in many years. Normally it's hot and dry with lots of 100 degree days. This past week has been one of the wettest stretches in the month of August in quite some time. I'm very thankful for it and enjoying the August rains!

South Texas Storms wrote:The weather around here this August has been one of the best in many years. Normally it's hot and dry with lots of 100 degree days. This past week has been one of the wettest stretches in the month of August in quite some time. I'm very thankful for it and enjoying the August rains!

Amen to that! I was looking back at some DFW F-6 data and I can't find an August with more than just 1-3 days of sub-90 degree days the past 10 years. To have a stretch of that many days is a miracle, only 2004 comes close. Then I saw August of 2011 and 2006....

A very pleasant late August afternoon across DFW today. The drier air is noticeably making a difference especially with the bright sunshine. What a wonderful stretch of weather we have had the last week. On to autumn.

Both of the large cities lucked out as the rainbomb hit further south.

The total for August rainfall so far at my house in south Austin is now 10.73 inches. I'm sure I'm not the only one that took a sigh of relief waking up this morning and finding that Austin was not dealing with widespread flooding.

Other than a chance for scattered pop up showers or storms tomorrow, will be nice to have a few dry days before rain returns at the end of the week.

It was nice in my case, in that it rained slowly enough that we didn't have any garage flooding issues. The French drain by garage kept up.

90% of rain that fell soaked in. That should help to maintain/replenish the subsoil moisture, and should keep it green for a while.

So, here is the question...is Summer almost over?

Just had a passing heavy shower over work after sun being out a while. Lasted about 5 minutes, then sun came out again. I feel like we live in the rainforest!


303
FXUS64 KEWX 221957
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
257 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms continued
across South Central Texas this afternoon as a moist airmass
lingers over our area. Expect this activity to dissipate rapidly
around sunset with loss of solar heating. The Subtropical Ridge
axis builds into Texas bringing a drier and subsident airmass.
We will not have any POPs. However, cannot rule out an isolated
shower or thunderstorm along the seabreeze near the Coastal Plains
Tuesday afternoon as a couple of Hi-Res models indicate. Below
normal high temperatures are expected due to saturated soils.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
The Subtropical Ridge axis remains over South Central Texas mid
week. The drier and subsident airmass will keep POPS out of the
forecast on Wednesday. The Ridge shifts back to the northeast
late week into the weekend. This allows deeper moisture to move
back into South Central Texas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are possible on Thursday and then become a little more numerous
and widespread Friday through Sunday. An inverted mid level trough
moves west across the Texas coastal waters and possibly into Texas
late in the weekend or early next week. This may enhance rainfall.
Too early to tell, though, as this is a recent model development.
High temperatures remain below normal due to saturated soils.

just drove home from work in rain... August still working its magic...

Having a nice break from the rain, and I only say nice because it's expected to return this weekend as opposed to what we usually get in August or else I wouldn't consider it a nice break. The mid month outlook was spot on when they showed an fairly unsettled pattern going into September.

I'd like to see consistent intervals of rain and dry weather through the month of September. Of course what I'd like to see rarely ever pans out lol.

Looking at what's going on with the Pacific and the La Niña or "La Nada" , something I've heard coined recently, I'm wondering if this Autumn and Winter will be closer to an ENSO Neutral type pattern rather than a weak central based Niña pattern. What are others thoughts on the subject?

EURO says keep an eye on GOM for major hurricane early next week:

99L is a menacing factor. The euro solution would be major headline news for the northern gulf and for Louisiana residents this is the last thing they want to see.

As for us, a major gulf system would likely shut off our rain chances as it will pool moisture and put all of us into subsidence. And actually it would actually promote some heat to return, as that is what tropical cyclones do, they transport heat into the mid latitudes.

I'll take the "vs. nothing" part of that Ryan Maue tweet please.

If any of you folks want to see recently collected aerial imagery of the flooding our neighbors in Louisiana are experiencing and want to lend a hand in analyzing the extent of the damage, stop by http://tmappsevents.esri.com/website/Lo ... index.html. Each photo has a 5 question survey that pertains to the image (Is there damage, Extent of damage, Types of buildings effected, Road condition) and is easy to breeze through.

ngturner1 wrote:If any of you folks want to see recently collected aerial imagery of the flooding our neighbors in Louisiana are experiencing and want to lend a hand in analyzing the extent of the damage, stop by http://tmappsevents.esri.com/website/Lo ... index.html. Each photo has a 5 question survey that pertains to the image (Is there damage, Extent of damage, Types of buildings effected, Road condition) and is easy to breeze through.

That is a pretty cool tool that I imagine will prove very useful for a rough processing of a mass of data.

Ntxw wrote:99L is a menacing factor. The euro solution would be major headline news for the northern gulf and for Louisiana residents this is the last thing they want to see.

As for us, a major gulf system would likely shut off our rain chances as it will pool moisture and put all of us into subsidence. And actually it would actually promote some heat to return, as that is what tropical cyclones do, they transport heat into the mid latitudes.

Yea I really hope it doesn't happen for both Louisiana's sake and our own. I'd like to keep rain chances in the forecast as well as the average temps.

How far west can it go???

Brent wrote:How far west can it go???

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... scus_9.png

If the High doesn't get broken down the storm will keep chugging w-wnw. However a storm that strong should be able move more poleward against the high, which could end up being a bad thing for Louisiana.

It could certainly come to Texas. The model trends are west right now (except the GFS, which is once again clueless).