Florida Weather

[Sanibel]

Cool air from the Gulf, warm sun above the equator. Nice combination before the sweat box in a few months.


The Nino winter verified in those Lows that came from the Pacific, crossed the country, and formed fronts that tailed more into Florida than usual for dry season giving us above average rain. Our ponds are full now unlike summer when they usually are.

[gatorcane]

GFS is trying to spin up some kind of Low from the tail end of a cold front in the Southern GOM. The GOM waters are still rather cool (except for the loop current) and the low will very likely be nontropical if it developed but an interesting Low here for the end of March nonetheless. If it verifies would bring alot of rain to Southern FL. ECMWF doesn't spin up anything:

NWS Miami discussion on this low:

BEYOND MONDAY... THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIFFER WITH THE GFS
SPINNING UP ANOTHER LOW IN THE GULF AND MOVING IT ACROSS S FL
TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THE GFS HAD NOT
INDICATED THIS FEATURE, BUT THE ECMWF STILL LAGS SOME MOISTURE
ACROSS S FL TUES AFTERNOON, SO DECIDED TO STICK WITH ISOLD POPS AND
NOT GO WITH SCT AS THE GFS INDICATES.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[psyclone]

a pretty intense squall line is rapidly approaching the tampa bay area from the west. almost looks a little LEWPy with a bowing segment that looks to move onshore between about clearwater to bayport in about an hour or so.

[JonathanBelles]

I'm thinking that bowing segment may come in around Hernando Co. Might actually be more interesting than I thought tonight.

[HURAKAN]

Opa Locka reported 3.04 inches of rain. Most of the rain was in a few hours leading to flooding

[Patrick99]

Yesterday morning it rained pretty hard in my area. It wasn't prolonged, but it led to some street flooding that proved annoying during the early morning commute.

Looks like the dynamic weather continues with a good chance of storms late Sun-Mon.

[JonathanBelles]

Last night was my annual Relay For Life in St. Pete, and it was the warmest and dryest of the 6 Relays that I have done. Of course it was still wet with dew, but it wasnt raining dew in the tent, and we still had salvageable paper left. I never had to change from shorts to pants, which is a first.

[psyclone]

SPC has painted peninsular florida in a slight risk zone for Sunday. with warm temps finally reasserting themselves instability shouldn't be an issue. Looks like a heavy rain threat exists as well. someone's gonna get dumped on.

[Patrick99]

Looks like a developing MCS in the E Gulf right now....let's see if it holds together.

It has that "weather approaching" feel here in SFL this morning. Brisk warm SE breeze, cloudy.

[NDG]

Looks like finally we will start drying up across the FL peninsula this week coming up after tomorrow through at least Easter Sunday, widespread 80s away from immediate coastal areas are also a sure bet for the rest of the week, I wonder how many people will give it a test to jump into the 60s deg water temps across most of the beaches, except SE FL which are in the low 70s which is still chilly even for locals.

[Patrick99]

Best time to go to the beach IMO - that water with temps in the 70s feels cold initially, but once you're in it's really nice.

[jinftl]

With a pattern like that, water temps statewide will start to respond and climb. Even after the last few days which have featured warmer days and nights than we have seen, along with a southeast flow, water temps have climbed.

Graph of the ocean temp at Fowey Rocks, located just off Miami Beach:




Even more dramatic increases in the ocean temp off Long Key in the FL Keys:

Looks like finally we will start drying up across the FL peninsula this week coming up after tomorrow through at least Easter Sunday, widespread 80s away from immediate coastal areas are also a sure bet for the rest of the week, I wonder how many people will give it a test to jump into the 60s deg water temps across most of the beaches, except SE FL which are in the low 70s which is still chilly even for locals.

[gatorcane]

Latest Hydrological outlook calling for another round of potential flooding for parts of metro South Florida as training could occur. This statement looks alot like the one issued about 3-4 weeks ago for a cold front that caused up to 5-6 inches of rain in some parts of South FL. As these cold fronts push through Northern and Central FL, they have a tougher time getting through Southern FL as the mid-level winds are streaming more SW to NE at these lower lattitudes which causes the front to slow to a crawl. As we move into April and May the fronts will have a more difficult time clearing Southern FL.

Also, potential tornadoes may be happening as I type this across the Northern side of lake O. El nino in its ugly glory.....

Hydrologic Outlook
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FLC011-021-043-051-086-087-099-291200-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
422 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING WITH URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...SO TOO WILL THE RAIN
CHANCES...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MOISTURE WILL BE AT ITS HIGHEST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...SOME
200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT...LEADING TO A GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO URBAN FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING COULD AVERAGE UP TO 2
TO 4 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...STEERING WINDS MONDAY MORNING ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
COULD LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING...OR MOVING OVER THE SAME
AREAS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...MUCH HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS WOULD BE POSSIBLE LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL OF URBAN
FLOODING.

IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THEN A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR ALL
OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.

STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI ON THIS DEVELOPING HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

$$

BAXTER

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... ic+Outlook

[artist]

Latest Hydrological outlook calling for another round of potential flooding for parts of metro South Florida as training could occur. This statement looks alot like the one issued about 3-4 weeks ago for a cold front that caused up to 5-6 inches of rain in some parts of South FL. As these cold fronts push through Northern and Central FL, they have a tougher time getting through Southern FL as the mid-level winds are streaming more SW to NE at these lower lattitudes which causes the front to slow to a crawl. As we move into April and May the fronts will have a more difficult time clearing Southern FL.

Also, potential tornadoes may be happening as I type this across the Northern side of lake O. El nino in its ugly glory.....

Hydrologic Outlook
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FLC011-021-043-051-086-087-099-291200-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
422 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING WITH URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...SO TOO WILL THE RAIN
CHANCES...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MOISTURE WILL BE AT ITS HIGHEST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...SOME
200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT...LEADING TO A GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO URBAN FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING COULD AVERAGE UP TO 2
TO 4 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...STEERING WINDS MONDAY MORNING ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
COULD LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING...OR MOVING OVER THE SAME
AREAS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...MUCH HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS WOULD BE POSSIBLE LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL OF URBAN
FLOODING.

IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THEN A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR ALL
OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.

STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI ON THIS DEVELOPING HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

$$

BAXTER

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... ic+Outlook

yep, and it worries me. Parts of our yard are still under water from that event, from overflow of our pond as well as in our front yard (not from the pond the front, that is).

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You never know with these events though. I could just easily see the flood watches not become warnings. I have been watching the squal line creep farther SE all day today. Certainly seems to be taking its time. It looks like when it finally arrives in metro parts of SE FL, it won't be until probably 1AM or 2AM for the West Palm Beach area. Not so sure that line won't dissipate alot by then anyway giving way to some moderate to isolated areas of heavy convection. By then, alot of the instability caused by the heating of the day is gone -- will need a strong Jet overhead and some good convergence to maintain the type of severe weather we are seeing across Lake O for metro areas of SE FL. I am doubting the upper-level support is going to be there for that type of weather here.

[gatorcane]

On a side note. I'm checking out the latest radar soundings from NWS Tampa Bay. There is very large area of light to moderate rain over the Eastern GOMEX that is streaming NE into the Tampa Bay area. It is interesting to note how the moderate rain seems to fizzle about 100 miles offshore. Certainly a good example of how relatively more "stable" airmass hovering near land is causing some dissipation, at least for now:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Evil Jeremy]

Very loud and very slow Severe T-Storm sitting in the center of Broward County.

[HURAKAN]

Tornado Warning for Broward County until 845 am

[HURAKAN]

LINK: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/100329_rpts.html

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED SWIRLING DEBRIS CLOUD MOVED THROUGH I-95 AND OAKLAND PARK BLVD INTERCHANGE, WIND ROCKED CARS. (MFL)

[JonathanBelles]

I got HAMMERED this morning at 5:30am. There was a lightning strike that was either a positive bolt from way up in the sky or a bolt that struck within a quarter mile of my room. It was so close that every electronic device in my room and my parents room turned on even if they were off. My desktop computer was turned off, and came on with the bolt. I was in a dead sleep and woke up blinded by the light, and then jumped a mile with the VERY loud thunder. My mom said the cat jumped half way across the room when the thunder cracked.

Soon after we had a torrential downpour. I remember it raining sideways before I rolled over and put a pillow over my head. This morning the pool was overflowing and the yards both had large areas with ponds in them 2-3" deep. I didnt have much time this morning to go out and look to see exactly how bad any damage was if any (other than water damage).

I know my hairdo this morning nearly scared me when I looked in the mirror!