STORM2K

Brent wrote:How far west can it go???

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... scus_9.png

That kind has a Rita feel to it.

CMC throwing us a bone today

Wouldn't do much for Austin.

The 10-day forecast is horrible... mostly sunny and 90s. Hopefully this is summer's last gasp...

aren't we supposed to move to the fall thread September 1? It's not gonna feel very fally...

If August 12th stands as the last 100F day for DFW this year then this will be the earliest last 100 degree day since 2004. Every year since 2011 has been in September, most after the first week. A nice change of pace in that department. No reason to believe we will see 100F or greater this September.

Reminder we will be moving over to the Fall thread next Thursday on the 1st. Ahh the days are getting shorter and I can feel it now . Watch Typhoon Lionrock about to hit Japan. Will give model fits in the medium to longer range as it will significantly buckle the jet stream in the North Pacific.

What a last 100+ day it was too. Such an abrupt change after that.

gboudx wrote:What a last 100+ day it was too. Such an abrupt change after that.

Indeed, it was crazy if that's the end(which of course, each passing day I think is more likely).

But I'm ready for some real fronts now...

Just logged in after about a week away and my brain hurts from trying to follow all the models and bits of info. Can anyone sum up what the Houston weather id's supposed to be for this next week? I am too confused to sort it all out right now...
Thank you in advace.

Kalrany wrote:Just logged in after about a week away and my brain hurts from trying to follow all the models and bits of info. Can anyone sum up what the Houston weather id's supposed to be for this next week? I am too confused to sort it all out right now...
Thank you in advace.

Daily chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected over the next few days as a disturbance interacts with tropical moisture across the region.

Thank you so much! I can normally figure it out from the various discussions, but this time it was too much for my poor little brain.

Rain chances have significantly decreased over the next few days for Austin unfortunately. The forecast looked better 12 hours ago. I'd like to see at least one more inch before things start to dry out.

A NGOM hit would probably send a heat dome to Texas

King Euro has been absolutely dreadful when it comes to 99L. You all know from my winter posts that I am a big fan of that model ... but I wouldn't take one run from it seriously at this point. It has been like a windshield wiper. One run Florida, one run Mississippi, one run Texas. At least when it comes to this tropical system, the Euro is the Cleveland Browns of models. And being a Browns fan and a Euro fan, I feel at liberty to make that analogy.

None of the models have done well with this system. Probably because after days and days of everyone watching it's every move, it still doesn't have low level center with mid and upper levels close to it.

Anyone along the Gulf Coast should be prepared anyhow ... it's hurricane season!

This upper level low coming into the Texas coast has been a real underperformer in terms of rainfall for those of us inland. Several days ago, the models showed at least 1/2" of rains by now in south central Texas. All we have had to date is widely scattered showers. Now today's radar coverage looks better but still ... I was hoping for much more than this.

My opinion...only...I know nothing...Until we have a closed low...an actual system, the models are going to be all over the place with 99 L. Who knows where/if it will end up...

he posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

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Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 3m3 minutes ago
So long Invest 99L ... we have an upgrade to TD Nine ... only a depression but expected to strengthen a smidgen

Portastorm wrote:This upper level low coming into the Texas coast has been a real underperformer in terms of rainfall for those of us inland. Several days ago, the models showed at least 1/2" of rains by now in south central Texas. All we have had to date is widely scattered showers. Now today's radar coverage looks better but still ... I was hoping for much more than this.

I hear ya Porta. We still have decent rain chances through Tuesday, but yeah, it has underperformed so far. Hopefully that changes in the next few days!

Cat 5 in the Gulf