Texas Spring 2018

[Brent]

If you go back about a week (1st) GFS said noon today would be 65. It is 35. Much like back in winter, laughable.

12z yesterday was a little better with 46 but still off.

Also had runs back then approaching 90 tomorrow

[northjaxpro]

Well, GFS has handled this cold air mass from the middle of this past week better. I have been following this in the models for most of this past week. It showed progressively colder since Wednesday. There will be another reload of cold air next week coming south across the Central and CONUS next week as well.

Spring is in hibernation

[weatherdude1108]

Dropped to 39 here at 1pm in April. The 10k run will not be ideal tomorrow morning as I'm recovering from a cold/stuffiness. Don't wanna relapse.

[bubba hotep]

Airport has recovered to 41, the all-time April min high is 40 back in 1938 and the record for today is 44. To bad it was 49 at 12:01 am.

[Ntxw]

Airport has recovered to 41, the all-time April min high is 40 back in 1938 and the record for today is 44. To bad it was 49 at 12:01 am.

Arbitrary numbers to me. Close to the all month lowest high temp is pretty impressive during the day and 34F this morning was a few degrees from the 31F daily record low. Arguably one of the coldest April days at DFW we've experienced

[Brent]

Airport has recovered to 41, the all-time April min high is 40 back in 1938 and the record for today is 44. To bad it was 49 at 12:01 am.

Arbitrary numbers to me. Close to the all month lowest high temp is pretty impressive during the day and 34F this morning was a few degrees from the 31F daily record low. Arguably one of the coldest April days at DFW we've experienced

Yeah record or not this is about the last thing i expected in April lol

[bubba hotep]

 https://twitter.com/SoonerTom/status/982765783213322240

[bubba hotep]

18z GEFS says, "What Spring?"

[South Texas Storms]

Sure, it's nice that there are no heat waves in the foreseeable future, but I'm not seeing any big rain events. That's more important to me than temperatures. We still need rain!

[Brent]

 https://twitter.com/SoonerTom/status/982765783213322240

that's crazy

[Yukon Cornelius]

Looks like another freeze for tonight. It’s already 35 with a wind chill of 29. What an awesome first part of April.

[northjaxpro]

18z GEFS says, "What Spring?"

[img]https://]

We are locked into the -NAO, which is now forecast to continue through the rest of April.

There will be several more cold shots of air to dive into the Eastern and Central CONUS for the next 2-3 weeks at least.

Thank heavens this -NAO did not set in during meteorological winter or else it would have been likely brutally cold for many in the Eastern CONUS, including the Florida peninsula.

Impressive nevertheless having the -NAO in place during the height of Spring.

[1900hurricane]

A redeeming quality of the cold is that it often portends a more southerly storm trajectory in May, which I will gladly take during the heart of chase season.

[Cerlin]

I’ve been out and about early this morning getting ready for the TMS race today—it’s still cold!!!

[bubba hotep]

This coming Friday looks like it could be a repeat with a dryline and strong cold front pushing through DFW. Timing currently looks faster than this past Friday but any slowing down of things could raise the risk of svr wx for DFW.

[Brent]

Looking like another extremely cold weekend possible behind the Friday front(especially Sunday), GFS and the CMC both have a freeze(yes on April 15/16) in areas outside of the metro, even has mid 30s in Dallas again The record latest freeze in Dallas is April 13 and these temps even above freezing would challenge records

maybe this will be the year without a summer

[Ntxw]

-6.8F below normal month to date for April at DFW. With more possible cool/cold shots...for once it might be hard to get an above normal month.

[cheezyWXguy]

06z GFS appears to be trending toward the CMC/Euro with a slightly slower, deeper, and less positively tilted trough on Friday. Based on the wording from FWD's AFD this morning, this seems to be the solution seems to be the more realistic one. The slower and deeper this trough digs, the more severe Friday's storms will be.

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
711 am CDT Mon Apr 9 2018
...
Friday afternoon and into the evening hours is when things get a
bit more interesting. The continued southerly flow earlier in the
week will result in the development of a dryline to the west. A
strong mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to slide eastward across
the area. Some of the projected 12 hour height tendencies
projected by medium/long range guidance suggests almost 200 meter
height falls to the north. This is pretty noteworthy and it could
suggest that this upper trough (and associated features) may not
be as progressive as some models advertise. The latest
deterministic guidance has converged some, but there are still a
few differences. The 00 UTC deterministic GFS continues to be on
the faster end of the guidance envelope with the 00 UTC Canadian
and European being a bit slower with the progression of the upper
level feature. Several gefs members are in line with the slower
deterministic Canadian and European. The faster GFS would push
the dryline and best rain/storm chances east of the I-35 corridor,
while the Canadian, European and gefs would keep highest rain
chances near and just west of I-35. Given that I expect that the
system and dryline progression will be slower given the dynamic
nature of the trough, i'll side with the slower solutions and keep
low pops as far west as Highway 281. Better rain chances will be east
of I-35, however, as Richer low level moisture will be in place.

[bubba hotep]

Friday is looking a bit more concerning for DFW but it's pointless to get into specifics at this range. One theme from the past couple of years has been for models to mix the dryline east too fast, even in the short range. Anymore slowing of the system could put DFW in the discrete cell zone as they come off the dryline, it looks like they should eventually build upscale but capping could keep storms discrete early on. Using QPF as a proxy, it looks like about 60% of the 00z Euro EPS members fire the dryline near or to the west of I35. WSI posted their productr earlier today via Twitter:

[weatherdude1108]

It was chilly running the CAP10K yesterday in Austin!
But I managed to beat my best time by 8 minutes, despite temps in the 40s and cloudy. But I wore shorts and a long-sleeve shirt with a bandana. I debated between shorts and long exercise pants. The long pants would have been too warm, and I made the right call. All those people warmed it slightly, and I warmed up as I ran, even broke a sweat on my forehead about halfway through.

Of course it got sunny with highs in the upper 60s later in the day. Probably one of the colder 10Ks they have had in their history(?).