Severe weather Tuesday may 13th...30% hatched area already :

[Ed Mahmoud]

Also interesting, boundary seen on OUN and FDR radars, moving slowly Eastward North of OKC, but backing up toward the West and Northwest in Clay County, Texas, just SE of SPS.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Quitting time...

AREA WEATHER UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

...MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR NORTH TEXAS...

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY OCCUR BY 22Z
IN NW PART OF CWA. DRYLINE SEGMENT EXTENDING FROM EAST OF KSPS TO
THE NW CORNER OF YOUNG COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR ABILENE APPEARS
TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MODERATE CU WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS PART OF THE DRYLINE WHERE
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATELY STRONG WIND CONVERGENCE.
WITH MLCAPES OVER 2500 J/KG THIS AREA AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 50
KTS...EXPECT ONE OR MORE SUPERCELLS TO INITIATE IN OR NEAR NW PART
OF CWA BY 22Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE MARGINAL
FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...BUT STRONG INSTABILITY AND
STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS MAY ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT. GREATEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
WILL BE ACROSS MONTAGUE...JACK...YOUNG...AND STEPHENS COUNTIES AS
STORMS MOVE EAST OFF THE RETREATING DRYLINE.

PATRICK

[MGC]

Yea, there is a cell developing just N or I-44 along the boundry. Looks like the boundry should be getting pretty close to Norman soon. Gonna take a look outside the facility....MGC

[MGC]

The sky is starting to darken. Clouds are finally starting to punch through the cap. I could see some rapid vertical development to my SE. I'd guess the majority of the action will be east of I-35.....MGC

[Bunkertor]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0904
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE OK THRU MUCH OF ERN KS/WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 132151Z - 132315Z

SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED
SOON.

BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED FOR INCREASING INSOLATION WITHIN
A NARROW LOW-LEVEL PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL OK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
KANSAS CITY MO METROPOLITAN AREA. COUPLED WITH NORTHWARD BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THIS
AXIS...THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MIXED LAYER
CAPE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AND...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
COOLING...NOW UNDERWAY...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DIMINISHING INHIBITION.

MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE RUC...SUGGEST THAT A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL JET STREAKS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD
WITHIN A BROAD BELT OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH PROGRESSING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AND...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT A COUPLING OF TWO OF THESE FEATURES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING LIFT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI THROUGH THE 14/00-03Z TIME FRAME.

THIS SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH NOW SEEMS GRADUALLY
UNDERWAY. AS INHIBITION CONTINUES TO ERODE...STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
ROTATION. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 05/13/2008


ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

37249639 37839642 38859555 39169450 38409398 37039425
35879589 36119672

[wx247]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 312
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
510 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 510 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
TULSA OKLAHOMA TO 95 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 311...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG SURFACE
COLD FRONT OVER NERN OK/SERN KS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MOVE EWD
INTO NWRN AR/SWRN MO THRU THE EVENING. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO
SUFFICE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.


...EVANS

[wx247]

Storms SW of Tulsa have now gone severe. They are being warned for up to half-dollar sized hail and winds to 60 mph.

[Bunkertor]

SPC briefing updated 1:45 http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sjt/brief/daily.html

[Bunkertor]

German team underway in U.S. They provide nice summaries of the day - unfortunately german.

http://www.wetteronline.de/feature/spez ... /13_to.htm

[Bunkertor]

Watch out Garrett:

SOME CONCERN EXISTS THAT THE MOST EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER MID/UPPER FORCING...MAY OCCUR
BOTH TO THE NORTHEAST OF WW AREA...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS...AND
TO THE SOUTH OF WW AREA...ACROSS THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...SCATTERED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
UNDERWAY ALONG A COLD ADVANCING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OF
OKLAHOMA...AND NEAR THE DRY LINE TO THE SOUTH OF COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS. AND...THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST/INTENSIFY
THROUGH 00-01Z...WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED LAYER
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...WITHIN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

[wx247]

Storms are really struggling to overcome the cap across Oklahoma.

[Bunkertor]

Storms are really struggling to overcome the cap across Oklahoma.

I think new soundings will come in a 0z - seem´s you are right, but there´s a cell in central OK with a splendid blow off.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Almost golf ball hail.

0635 PM HAIL 3 W BRADY 31.14N 99.39W
05/13/2008 E1.75 INCH MCCULLOCH TX TRAINED SPOTTER

No Yugos yet

[MGC]

OKC TV is showing a cell with rotation 2 miles SW or Prague OK....MGC

[Bunkertor]

Feel invited

I´m sure Ed will give his permission, because no warning out, yet.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not seeing anything on radial velocity mode on SJT or DYX radar, but San Saba/McCullough county cell looks like it is developing a little notch just ahead of highest reflectivities.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Feel invited

I´m sure Ed will give his permission, because no warning out, yet.

It is my understanding that the American-English words "beer" and "elbow" have Germanic origin, and one would have a difficult time drinking beer without elbows.

[MGC]

Cell SW or Prague OK is producing a wall cloud.....MGC

[wx247]

I wonder when they will put a tornado warning on it.

[Bunkertor]

Ha ! Ed ! New Topic - as to your business. An Ell ( eine Elle ) is the underarm bone - the used it to mesure out distances.

Germanic beer is Al or Ale which means oil. Denmark folks order Öl ( oil ) and when you witness them drinking in germany you know what a wiking storm is.... ( they pay 9 or 10 $ for a glass of beer in Denmark and 5 $ = 3,3 € from the tap here ( 1,8 € bottled )

We once had guests from sweden and my dad wanted to open up a bottle of sparkling wine for them. They refused it with the words " No - Öl, Öl ". They were teachers, not antisocial or so, just keen on Öl.

<--- Astra tapped