From KILN (Wilmington OH) NWS:
Severe Thunderstorms and Flooding Possible Overnight
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to move through the region overnight and into the early morning hours. These storms may be capable of producing damaging winds and hail, as well as isolated tornadoes. These storms will also have the potential to produce heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding.
Moderate Risk Severe Weather - June 2010
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apocalypt-flyer
- Category 1
- Posts: 468
- Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 11:51 am
Re: Moderate Risk Severe Weather IL, IN, OH
Lake Township area looks pretty bad. Three confirmed fatalities in the area.
The North-Eastern states could be under the gun today.
The North-Eastern states could be under the gun today.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Moderate Risk Severe Weather IL, IN, OH
SPC AC 061300
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010
VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VLY THROUGH THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF S GA/NRN FL...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL HI
PLNS...
...SYNOPSIS...
LWR GRT LKS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES
ESE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST EARLY MON...WHILE CNTRL/NRN RCKYS RIDGE
PROGRESSES E INTO THE HI PLNS. IN THE WEST...SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ENE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN GRT BASIN AS
UPR HIGH HOLDS FIRM OVER SRN NM. SE OF THE HIGH...ELONGATED TROUGH
WITH AT LEAST TWO EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL PERSIST FROM THE NWRN GULF
TO NRN FL.
AT LWR LVLS...SEASONABLY STRONG SFC LOW NOW OVER S CNTRL NY WILL
CONTINUE E INTO SRN NH BY EARLY AFTN...AND INTO THE GULF OF ME BY
EVE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS STEADILY E/SE ACROSS THE
ERN THIRD OF THE NATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT...MEANWHILE...WILL BECOME STNRY OVER N TX LATER TODAY...AND
WILL REDEVELOP N TO THE CNTRL HI PLNS EARLY MON.
...CNTRL APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC TO SRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND...
A SUBSTANTIAL SVR WEATHER EVENT /DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES/ REMAINS POSSIBLE TODAY FROM SERN NY AND CNTRL/SRN NEW
ENGLAND SW THROUGH ERN PA/NJ TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...
BAND OF SCTD TSTMS...INCLUDING SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND BROKEN
LINES...EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FROM SRN NY SW INTO SRN/CNTRL OH.
DESPITE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...COMBINATION OF 50-60 KT DEEP WSWLY
SHEAR AND FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE RETURN WILL MAINTAIN THREAT FOR
OCCASIONAL TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DMGG WINDS.
THIS THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG AND JUST S OF SFC WAVE ALONG
THE NY/PA BORDER.
IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING AND CONTINUED EWD MOTION/AMPLIFICATION OF
UPR TROUGH...EXPECT THE FRONTAL STORMS TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
STRENGTH LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTN OVER PARTS OF PA/WV
AND SRN OH. OTHER STORMS SHOULD FORM BY MIDDAY ALONG PREFRONTAL
CONFLUENCE AXIS/LEE TROUGH FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NE INTO NEW
ENGLAND.
STRONG WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH GRT LKS TROUGH /WITH 700 MB SPEEDS
OF 50-70 KTS/...AND INCREASING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 2000
J PER KG IN MD/VA...AND 1000 J PER KG IN NEW ENGLAND/...SHOULD PROVE
FAVORABLE FOR SCTD SUPERCELLS/SUSTAINED STORMS WITH DMGG WIND AND A
FEW TORNADOES. THIS THREAT WILL BE GREATEST FROM THE PHILADELPHIA
AREA NE INTO SRN AND PERHAPS CNTRL NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY EVE.
...TN VLY/SRN APPALACHIANS INTO ERN KY...NC...SRN VA...
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING
ALONG PORTION OF COLD FRONT CROSSING PARTS OF KY/TN...AND ALONG
PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER VA/NC. MID/UPR LVL FLOW AND ASCENT WILL
INCREASE OVER THESE AREAS AS REGION IS GLANCED BY SRN FRINGE OF GRT
LKS TROUGH. 35-40 KT WNWLY 700 MB WINDS COULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH DMGG WIND/HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN PARTS
OF THE REGION. THE SVR THREAT COULD PERSIST INTO MID EVE IN VA/NC.
...NW TX TO CNTRL HI PLNS...
SFC HEATING EXPECTED TO GENERATE STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 3000
J PER KG/ IN ZONE OF WEAK DEEP SHEAR ALONG AND JUST S OF STALLING
FRONT OVER NW TX LATER TODAY. SOMEWHAT LESSER CAPE /AROUND 2000 J
PER KG/ BUT GREATER DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST FARTHER NW INTO ERN
CO...ON NE EDGE OF NM UPR HIGH. UPSLOPE OVER THE CO FOOTHILLS...AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT IN TX...EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SCTD STRONG
AFTN STORMS OVER BOTH REGIONS. PULSE ACTIVITY IN TX MAY YIELD SVR
HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND. DESPITE ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT...A FEW SUPERCELLS COULD FORM IN ERN CO...GIVEN
40+ KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR WITH A SUBSTANTIAL VEERING COMPONENT IN THE
VERTICAL AND SUSTAINED UPSLOPE FLOW.
LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVE...ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD FORM OVER
WRN NEB...IN AREA OF STRENGTHENING WAA ASSOCIATED WITH
NOCTURNALLY-ENHANCED LLJ AND PASSING DISTURBANCES IN WNW FLOW OVER
THE UPR MS VLY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE INTO A LATE NIGHT MCS
POSING A THREAT FOR SVR HAIL AND POSSIBLY DMGG WIND.
...S GA/FL...
ERN MEMBER OF ELONGATED UPR DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF STATES LIKELY
WILL AFFECT LOCATION/TIMING OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS OVER FL/S
GA AND POSSIBLY CSTL SC. 25-30 KT WNWLY MID LVL FLOW ON S SIDE OF
TROUGH MAY YIELD A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WINDS
THROUGH EARLY EVE.
..CORFIDI/STOPPKOTTE.. 06/06/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1424Z (10:24AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010
VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VLY THROUGH THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF S GA/NRN FL...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL HI
PLNS...
...SYNOPSIS...
LWR GRT LKS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES
ESE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST EARLY MON...WHILE CNTRL/NRN RCKYS RIDGE
PROGRESSES E INTO THE HI PLNS. IN THE WEST...SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ENE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN GRT BASIN AS
UPR HIGH HOLDS FIRM OVER SRN NM. SE OF THE HIGH...ELONGATED TROUGH
WITH AT LEAST TWO EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL PERSIST FROM THE NWRN GULF
TO NRN FL.
AT LWR LVLS...SEASONABLY STRONG SFC LOW NOW OVER S CNTRL NY WILL
CONTINUE E INTO SRN NH BY EARLY AFTN...AND INTO THE GULF OF ME BY
EVE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS STEADILY E/SE ACROSS THE
ERN THIRD OF THE NATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT...MEANWHILE...WILL BECOME STNRY OVER N TX LATER TODAY...AND
WILL REDEVELOP N TO THE CNTRL HI PLNS EARLY MON.
...CNTRL APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC TO SRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND...
A SUBSTANTIAL SVR WEATHER EVENT /DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES/ REMAINS POSSIBLE TODAY FROM SERN NY AND CNTRL/SRN NEW
ENGLAND SW THROUGH ERN PA/NJ TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...
BAND OF SCTD TSTMS...INCLUDING SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND BROKEN
LINES...EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FROM SRN NY SW INTO SRN/CNTRL OH.
DESPITE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...COMBINATION OF 50-60 KT DEEP WSWLY
SHEAR AND FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE RETURN WILL MAINTAIN THREAT FOR
OCCASIONAL TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DMGG WINDS.
THIS THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG AND JUST S OF SFC WAVE ALONG
THE NY/PA BORDER.
IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING AND CONTINUED EWD MOTION/AMPLIFICATION OF
UPR TROUGH...EXPECT THE FRONTAL STORMS TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
STRENGTH LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTN OVER PARTS OF PA/WV
AND SRN OH. OTHER STORMS SHOULD FORM BY MIDDAY ALONG PREFRONTAL
CONFLUENCE AXIS/LEE TROUGH FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NE INTO NEW
ENGLAND.
STRONG WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH GRT LKS TROUGH /WITH 700 MB SPEEDS
OF 50-70 KTS/...AND INCREASING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 2000
J PER KG IN MD/VA...AND 1000 J PER KG IN NEW ENGLAND/...SHOULD PROVE
FAVORABLE FOR SCTD SUPERCELLS/SUSTAINED STORMS WITH DMGG WIND AND A
FEW TORNADOES. THIS THREAT WILL BE GREATEST FROM THE PHILADELPHIA
AREA NE INTO SRN AND PERHAPS CNTRL NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY EVE.
...TN VLY/SRN APPALACHIANS INTO ERN KY...NC...SRN VA...
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING
ALONG PORTION OF COLD FRONT CROSSING PARTS OF KY/TN...AND ALONG
PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER VA/NC. MID/UPR LVL FLOW AND ASCENT WILL
INCREASE OVER THESE AREAS AS REGION IS GLANCED BY SRN FRINGE OF GRT
LKS TROUGH. 35-40 KT WNWLY 700 MB WINDS COULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH DMGG WIND/HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN PARTS
OF THE REGION. THE SVR THREAT COULD PERSIST INTO MID EVE IN VA/NC.
...NW TX TO CNTRL HI PLNS...
SFC HEATING EXPECTED TO GENERATE STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 3000
J PER KG/ IN ZONE OF WEAK DEEP SHEAR ALONG AND JUST S OF STALLING
FRONT OVER NW TX LATER TODAY. SOMEWHAT LESSER CAPE /AROUND 2000 J
PER KG/ BUT GREATER DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST FARTHER NW INTO ERN
CO...ON NE EDGE OF NM UPR HIGH. UPSLOPE OVER THE CO FOOTHILLS...AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT IN TX...EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SCTD STRONG
AFTN STORMS OVER BOTH REGIONS. PULSE ACTIVITY IN TX MAY YIELD SVR
HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND. DESPITE ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT...A FEW SUPERCELLS COULD FORM IN ERN CO...GIVEN
40+ KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR WITH A SUBSTANTIAL VEERING COMPONENT IN THE
VERTICAL AND SUSTAINED UPSLOPE FLOW.
LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVE...ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD FORM OVER
WRN NEB...IN AREA OF STRENGTHENING WAA ASSOCIATED WITH
NOCTURNALLY-ENHANCED LLJ AND PASSING DISTURBANCES IN WNW FLOW OVER
THE UPR MS VLY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE INTO A LATE NIGHT MCS
POSING A THREAT FOR SVR HAIL AND POSSIBLY DMGG WIND.
...S GA/FL...
ERN MEMBER OF ELONGATED UPR DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF STATES LIKELY
WILL AFFECT LOCATION/TIMING OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS OVER FL/S
GA AND POSSIBLY CSTL SC. 25-30 KT WNWLY MID LVL FLOW ON S SIDE OF
TROUGH MAY YIELD A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WINDS
THROUGH EARLY EVE.
..CORFIDI/STOPPKOTTE.. 06/06/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1424Z (10:24AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Moderate Risk Severe Weather IL, IN, OH
I have NEVER seen a PDS Tornado Watch on the NE coast. Could we see that?
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0828
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0925 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...SWD ACROSS ERN PA/NJ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 061425Z - 061530Z
...TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON ACROSS MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
WELL DEFINED SFC LOW WILL PROGRESS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO SRN VT/NH
BY MID AFTERNOON AS STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVERSPREADS SRN NEW
ENGLAND. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST ACROSS THIS REGION AND
WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATS. LATEST THINKING IS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE RETREATING WARM FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. EVEN SOUTH OF THIS ZONE INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC IT
APPEARS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EASILY SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD ALSO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A ZONE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DISPLAY MORE LINEAR QUALITIES. TORNADOES CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...POTENTIALLY
STRONG...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE MORE COMMON WITH LINE SEGMENTS.
HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.
..DARROW.. 06/06/2010
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LAT...LON 40097754 42927278 42377050 40927130 39537471 40097754
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0828
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0925 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...SWD ACROSS ERN PA/NJ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 061425Z - 061530Z
...TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON ACROSS MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
WELL DEFINED SFC LOW WILL PROGRESS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO SRN VT/NH
BY MID AFTERNOON AS STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVERSPREADS SRN NEW
ENGLAND. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST ACROSS THIS REGION AND
WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATS. LATEST THINKING IS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE RETREATING WARM FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. EVEN SOUTH OF THIS ZONE INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC IT
APPEARS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EASILY SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD ALSO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A ZONE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DISPLAY MORE LINEAR QUALITIES. TORNADOES CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...POTENTIALLY
STRONG...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE MORE COMMON WITH LINE SEGMENTS.
HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.
..DARROW.. 06/06/2010
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LAT...LON 40097754 42927278 42377050 40927130 39537471 40097754
0 likes
-
Stephanie
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23843
- Age: 62
- Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:53 am
- Location: Glassboro, NJ
Re: Moderate Risk Severe Weather - June 2010
Right now there's a tornado watch for much of northern and central PA.
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Re: Moderate Risk Severe Weather - June 2010
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0272.html
SEL2
0-070000-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 272
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM EDT SUN JUN 6 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CONNECTICUT
MASSACHUSETTS
SOUTHERN MAINE
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
MUCH OF NEW JERSEY
EASTERN NEW YORK
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
RHODE ISLAND
SOUTHERN VERMONT
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1110 AM UNTIL 800
PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF CONCORD NEW
HAMPSHIRE TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HARRISBURG PENNSYLVANIA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 271...
DISCUSSION...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR...TORNADOES...ONE OR TWO WHICH
COULD BE STRONG...TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
ESPECIALLY FROM ERN NY NEWD INTO MA AND SRN NH/VT AS AN UPPER
IMPULSE...SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT SPREAD QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE
REGION. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG EWD MOVING
COLD FRONT AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE WATCH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26045.
...IMY
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:90/50 tornado probs. Probably serious discussion of going PDS there. Surpising they didn't.
There's still some question as to how much clearing that can take place before the cold front presses through. It's quite cloudy over much of the region which might limit the amount of heating preventing the cap from breaking between 700-850 mb which is evident in some of the forecast soundings I looked at. Isn't ideal for surface-based supercells breaking out ahead of the main cold front. Think widespread wind damage will be the main issue later with a QLCS.
0 likes
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Stephanie
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23843
- Age: 62
- Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:53 am
- Location: Glassboro, NJ
Re: Moderate Risk Severe Weather - June 2010
It's official for my area:
Tornado Watch
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 272
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM EDT SUN JUN 6 2010
TORNADO WATCH 272 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
NJC001-003-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-
037-039-041-070000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0272.100606T1510Z-100607T0000Z/
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATLANTIC BERGEN BURLINGTON
CAMDEN ESSEX GLOUCESTER
HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER
MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS
OCEAN PASSAIC SOMERSET
SUSSEX UNION WARREN
$$
It's pretty cloudy now, some sun is peaking through and it's pretty breezy.
Tornado Watch
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 272
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM EDT SUN JUN 6 2010
TORNADO WATCH 272 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
NJC001-003-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-
037-039-041-070000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0272.100606T1510Z-100607T0000Z/
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATLANTIC BERGEN BURLINGTON
CAMDEN ESSEX GLOUCESTER
HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER
MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS
OCEAN PASSAIC SOMERSET
SUSSEX UNION WARREN
$$
It's pretty cloudy now, some sun is peaking through and it's pretty breezy.
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Mid-Atlantic next, although I think strong tornadoes are much less likely there.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0829
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1042 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV PANHANDLE...MD...DE...NRN VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 061542Z - 061645Z
...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 17Z...
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC...PRIMARILY NO FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE DELMARVA REGION.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS LESS VEERED ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH DOES
PROVIDE MORE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR POTENTIAL TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT WITH
ANY SUPERCELLS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ENHANCED SFC HEATING ACROSS CNTRL VA INTO DE SUGGESTS FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG. LATEST RADAR
DATA SUGGESTS STRONGER FORCING IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS MD/WV PANHANDLE AND WITH TIME STRONG UPDRAFTS
SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.
..DARROW.. 06/06/2010
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 39757831 39667420 37887528 38207881 39757831
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0829
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1042 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV PANHANDLE...MD...DE...NRN VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 061542Z - 061645Z
...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 17Z...
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC...PRIMARILY NO FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE DELMARVA REGION.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS LESS VEERED ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH DOES
PROVIDE MORE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR POTENTIAL TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT WITH
ANY SUPERCELLS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ENHANCED SFC HEATING ACROSS CNTRL VA INTO DE SUGGESTS FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG. LATEST RADAR
DATA SUGGESTS STRONGER FORCING IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS MD/WV PANHANDLE AND WITH TIME STRONG UPDRAFTS
SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.
..DARROW.. 06/06/2010
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 39757831 39667420 37887528 38207881 39757831
0 likes
-
Stephanie
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23843
- Age: 62
- Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:53 am
- Location: Glassboro, NJ
Re: Moderate Risk Severe Weather - June 2010
TWC's TOR:CON gives a 6/10 chance for the Northeast - CT & MA, 4/10 for Eastern PA & NJ and 3/10 for Eastern NC.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Moderate Risk Severe Weather - June 2010
Still 10% tornado but hatched in S New England.
SPC AC 061622
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010
VALID 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NJ...FAR ERN
PA...SERN NY...RI...MA...CT...SRN VT/NH...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO THE
TN VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN NM NEWD INTO SRN
SD...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE NRN FL PANHANDLE AND SRN
GA...
A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES...ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
FROM DELAWARE/NJ NEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND...
...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NEWD INTO SRN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...
DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL NY WILL SHIFT QUICKLY NEWD INTO MAINE
BY LATE IN THE DAY. ASSOCIATED TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS
EWD AND EXTEND FROM THE NRN ATLANTIC COAST SSWWD INTO ERN VA/NC BY
EVENING. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ARE ALREADY ONGOING
ACROSS FROM ERN NY SWWD INTO WV...INCLUDING SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
AND BROKEN LINES. THESE STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY AS WARMING
TEMPERATURES FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS. THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY PLUS 50-60 KT WSWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE WARM FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LIFTING NWD FROM CT/MA AND
INTO SRN NH/SERN ME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHER STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES SWWD INTO THE TN VALLEY. VERY WARM AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE IN THIS REGION
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE MORE VEERED.
...NERN NM NWD INTO SERN WY AND NEB/SRN SD...
ELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAS RETURNED MOISTURE BACK TO THE FOOTHILLS
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO
SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE ERN CO PLAINS. TONIGHT...ELEVATED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NEB/SRN SD IN ZONE OF WWA ASSOCIATED WITH
NOCTURNALLY-ENHANCED LLJ AND PASSING DISTURBANCE IN WNW FLOW ALOFT.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE INTO A LATE NIGHT MCS POSING MOSTLY A
THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL.
...SRN GA/FL...
ELONGATED UPR DISTURBANCE OVER THE SERN GULF STATES MAY ENHANCE
DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS OVER FL/S GA AND POSSIBLY CSTL SC. 25-30
KT WNWLY MID LVL FLOW ON S SIDE OF TROUGH MAY YIELD A FEW ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVE.
..IMY/JEWELL.. 06/06/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1641Z (12:41PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
SPC AC 061622
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010
VALID 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NJ...FAR ERN
PA...SERN NY...RI...MA...CT...SRN VT/NH...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO THE
TN VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN NM NEWD INTO SRN
SD...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE NRN FL PANHANDLE AND SRN
GA...
A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES...ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
FROM DELAWARE/NJ NEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND...
...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NEWD INTO SRN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...
DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL NY WILL SHIFT QUICKLY NEWD INTO MAINE
BY LATE IN THE DAY. ASSOCIATED TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS
EWD AND EXTEND FROM THE NRN ATLANTIC COAST SSWWD INTO ERN VA/NC BY
EVENING. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ARE ALREADY ONGOING
ACROSS FROM ERN NY SWWD INTO WV...INCLUDING SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
AND BROKEN LINES. THESE STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY AS WARMING
TEMPERATURES FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS. THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY PLUS 50-60 KT WSWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE WARM FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LIFTING NWD FROM CT/MA AND
INTO SRN NH/SERN ME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHER STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES SWWD INTO THE TN VALLEY. VERY WARM AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE IN THIS REGION
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE MORE VEERED.
...NERN NM NWD INTO SERN WY AND NEB/SRN SD...
ELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAS RETURNED MOISTURE BACK TO THE FOOTHILLS
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO
SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE ERN CO PLAINS. TONIGHT...ELEVATED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NEB/SRN SD IN ZONE OF WWA ASSOCIATED WITH
NOCTURNALLY-ENHANCED LLJ AND PASSING DISTURBANCE IN WNW FLOW ALOFT.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE INTO A LATE NIGHT MCS POSING MOSTLY A
THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL.
...SRN GA/FL...
ELONGATED UPR DISTURBANCE OVER THE SERN GULF STATES MAY ENHANCE
DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS OVER FL/S GA AND POSSIBLY CSTL SC. 25-30
KT WNWLY MID LVL FLOW ON S SIDE OF TROUGH MAY YIELD A FEW ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVE.
..IMY/JEWELL.. 06/06/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1641Z (12:41PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Moderate Risk Severe Weather - June 2010
Probs are 50/30.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 273
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM EDT SUN JUN 6 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
DELAWARE
MUCH OF MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1240 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
BALTIMORE MARYLAND TO 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PATUXENT RIVER
MARYLAND. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 271...WW 272...
DISCUSSION...STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY AS THEY ENCOUNTER A VERY
WARM AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. DEEP WLY FLOW FROM 2-10 KM AGL WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR ONE OR TWO LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE
TO DEVELOP. ALSO...THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
STRONGLY VEERED WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1 TO 2 KM WILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WITHIN AND AHEAD OF THE LINE...WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...IMY
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 273
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM EDT SUN JUN 6 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
DELAWARE
MUCH OF MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1240 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
BALTIMORE MARYLAND TO 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PATUXENT RIVER
MARYLAND. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 271...WW 272...
DISCUSSION...STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY AS THEY ENCOUNTER A VERY
WARM AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. DEEP WLY FLOW FROM 2-10 KM AGL WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR ONE OR TWO LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE
TO DEVELOP. ALSO...THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
STRONGLY VEERED WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1 TO 2 KM WILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WITHIN AND AHEAD OF THE LINE...WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...IMY
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Although I would typically say the warm front is a good spot to look out for the biggest tornadoes because supercells can track along the warm front and the low level vorticity can spin up long-lived tornadoes, I'm not so sure this is the case here. There's a lot of maritime, stable air feeding onto both sides of the front and probably a lot of warm air coming in aloft over it, so I probably wouldn't have gone with the hatched sig. tornado region. I think the highest chance of seeing a tornado will be in a discrete supercell up ahead of the cold front in the CT river valley from Hartford - Springfield - VT/MA border where the trajectory is less off the ocean. This is the region the 09Z SREF is targeting as well.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0830
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NEW ENGLAND TO CNTRL VA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 272...273...
VALID 061838Z - 061945Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 272...273...CONTINUES.
SEVERAL PRE-FRONTAL BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
INTENSITY FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND...SWWD INTO NRN VA. WITHIN THESE
BANDS OF CONVECTION A FEW DISCRETE STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED...THOUGH THE PREDOMINANT STORM MODE APPEARS TO BE SHORT
LINE SEGMENTS. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY WITH ACTIVITY THAT CAN
REMAIN ORIENTED MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE MEAN WIND FLOW.
OTHERWISE...THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES WITHIN THE BACKED
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW NEAR THE WARM FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND.
..DARROW.. 06/06/2010
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...
CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 37577631 38127910 39247676 40777548 43797270 42806964
40037356 37577631
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NEW ENGLAND TO CNTRL VA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 272...273...
VALID 061838Z - 061945Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 272...273...CONTINUES.
SEVERAL PRE-FRONTAL BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
INTENSITY FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND...SWWD INTO NRN VA. WITHIN THESE
BANDS OF CONVECTION A FEW DISCRETE STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED...THOUGH THE PREDOMINANT STORM MODE APPEARS TO BE SHORT
LINE SEGMENTS. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY WITH ACTIVITY THAT CAN
REMAIN ORIENTED MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE MEAN WIND FLOW.
OTHERWISE...THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES WITHIN THE BACKED
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW NEAR THE WARM FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND.
..DARROW.. 06/06/2010
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...
CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 37577631 38127910 39247676 40777548 43797270 42806964
40037356 37577631
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Moderate Risk Severe Weather - June 2010
First tornado warning of the day.
FUS51 KLWX 061842
TORLWX
MDC003-033-061915-
/O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0006.100606T1842Z-100606T1915Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
242 PM EDT SUN JUN 6 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
EAST CENTRAL PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
* UNTIL 315 PM EDT
* AT 241 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
MITCHELLVILLE...OR NEAR LARGO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOWIE...
LONDONTOWNE...
ANNAPOLIS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR
VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3897 7650 3882 7655 3891 7686 3899 7684
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 280DEG 25KT 3894 7679
$$
FUS51 KLWX 061842
TORLWX
MDC003-033-061915-
/O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0006.100606T1842Z-100606T1915Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
242 PM EDT SUN JUN 6 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
EAST CENTRAL PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
* UNTIL 315 PM EDT
* AT 241 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
MITCHELLVILLE...OR NEAR LARGO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOWIE...
LONDONTOWNE...
ANNAPOLIS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR
VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3897 7650 3882 7655 3891 7686 3899 7684
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 280DEG 25KT 3894 7679
$$
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lester
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- Age: 36
- Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 5:21 pm
- Location: Washington, DC
- Contact:
Re: Moderate Risk Severe Weather - June 2010
CrazyC83 wrote:First tornado warning of the day.
FUS51 KLWX 061842
TORLWX
MDC003-033-061915-
/O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0006.100606T1842Z-100606T1915Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
242 PM EDT SUN JUN 6 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
EAST CENTRAL PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
* UNTIL 315 PM EDT
* AT 241 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
MITCHELLVILLE...OR NEAR LARGO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOWIE...
LONDONTOWNE...
ANNAPOLIS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR
VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3897 7650 3882 7655 3891 7686 3899 7684
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 280DEG 25KT 3894 7679
$$
That tornado warning has been allowed to expire
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