Texas Spring-2015

[wxman57]

Someone please explain to me why it's warmer in NEBRASKA (currently 78 degrees!) than it is in North Texas?!?! Their 7 day forecast is all low to mid 70's while ours is 60's. ....#NotFair #TiredOfFreezing

The overcast sky in the Dallas/Grapevine area until just recently are the reason. Lots of sunshine across Nebraska.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ground is so saturated here, went running and there is a crazy amount of puddles around. No sun to dry this mess up!

[JDawg512]

SXSW has begun in the capital city and the sun came out just in time to kick off the party! Looks great over the weekend and the start of next week but the music portion of the conference looks to be damp. The next upcoming storm system may be pretty interesting.

[Brent]

HAHA the 0z GFS provides some hope for those wanting a warmup lol

Personally while I want a bit of a warmup(into the 70s/maybe near 80), the mid and upper 80s can stay away as long as possible.

[Ntxw]

Raining steadily at DFW airport, really most east of I-35. Clouds won't clear completely until Thursday for a day before baja low moves in.

El Nino effects at its best persistent clouds, damp, warmer in the northern plains than southern plains.

[Ntxw]

An amazing fact I thought I'd throw out there, there have been 4 tornado watches this year (all in the gulf coast southeast). There have been 0 (zero) severe thunderstorm watches in 2015 through early March in the US contiguous states. March so far (that I can find) has no reported Tornadoes. That is unheard of.

[JayDT]

I've been keeping up on the weather here for years. I have to say i love all the amazing information i've learned on here! I don't know much about weather but a lot of what i've learned, i learned it on here. There are some really amazing people on here!

[Ntxw]

Maybe this will be the catalysts to start filling up those western Lakes when the baja low kicks out. Pattern is persistent cool wet south, warm dry north across the US.

[weatherdude1108]

Looks adventurous in the discussion.
SWXW may be a little muddy.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FEATURE SITS ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE AREA WITH EAST
PACIFIC MOISTURE PUSHING ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO THE RIO
GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW THAT WILL REMAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO
THE MID 50S WITH SATURDAY`S HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S MOST
AREAS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS GREAT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS BRING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKING AT AREA SOUNDINGS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME...APPEARS THAT WE WILL GET EPISODES OF MODERATE TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINS. SO FAR...THE PERIOD FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS NOT
CLEAR...HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
WET PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT DRIES OUT LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

[Brent]

Check out Lake Lavon:

[somethingfunny]

I really like the current AFD from Fort Worth.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015/
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH OUT OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF RAIN IS PINWHEELING AROUND THE LOW...WITH THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS ACTIVITY SOAKING THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A QUARTER INCH TO ONE INCH. THIS
AREA HAS SEEN ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION DURING THE LAST FEW
WEEKS...AND SATURATED SOILS ARE PROMOTING GOOD RUNOFF INTO THE
RIVERS AND LAKES OF EAST TEXAS. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
IN INTENSITY AND HEAD NORTH AND OUT OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING.

THIS LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY A VERTICALLY STACKED WARM-CORE
SYSTEM...MEANING THAT TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CORE OF THE LOW IN THE
MID-UPPER LEVELS ARE WARMER THAN ITS SURROUNDINGS. THESE SYSTEMS
HARNESS THE LATENT HEAT RELEASED FROM WATER VAPOR...WHICH CREATES
A COLUMN OF WARM AIR...OR BUMP...IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELDS ALOFT.
THE ATMOSPHERE TRIES TO EQUALIZE THIS TEMPERATURE BUMP ALOFT...SO
THE AIR SPREADS OUTWARD IN ALL DIRECTIONS. THIS NATURALLY CREATES
EVACUATION AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT...WHICH GETS REPLACED BY RISING
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. PROVIDED THE RISING AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
CONTAINS MOISTURE AND HAS AT LEAST A SMALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY...THE PRECIPITATION THE NEW RISING AIR PRODUCES ONLY
SERVES TO REINFORCE THE WARM TEMPERATURE BUBBLE ALOFT. SO WITH
WARM-CORE LOWS YOU HAVE A NATURAL FEEDBACK LOOP THAT STRENGTHENS
THE LOW PROVIDED THAT 1) ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE
AVAILABLE AND 2) THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR THAT WILL RIP
THE WARM TEMPERATURE COLUMN APART. TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE THE MOST
FAMOUS OF THE WARM-CORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...BUT THESE WARM-
CORE SYSTEMS OFTEN DO FORM OVER LAND AND CAN BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
HEAVY AND PERSISTENT RAINS IF CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT.

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OUR WARM-CORE LOW IS GOING TO EXPERIENCE
SOME PRETTY TERRIFIC WIND SHEAR...AND IT WILL EFFECTIVELY BE
DECAPITATED. THE TOP OF THE LOW WILL HEAD RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMES ORPHANED OVER NORTHEAST
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPT THE LOW/S
ABILITY TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN. SO THE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS
TONIGHT WILL BE WEAKER AND MORE SPORADIC THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO
NIGHTS...AND WILL JUST CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GENERALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. I AM CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS HAVE
UNDERESTIMATED THE STAYING POWER OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
THIS WEEKEND WITH THIS REMNANT LOW HANGING AROUND IN EAST TEXAS.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A BIT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS RESULT. BY MONDAY...THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO TUESDAY. HAVE NO POPS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS
SUNDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER BAJA AND WESTERN
MEXICO...AND THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL EJECT
OUT INTO TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE THIS LOW IS ALREADY
UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH...WHEN IT EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL GRAB
SOME DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND SLING IT
NORTH INTO TEXAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES...WHICH IS GETTING NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR
MARCH. THIS HIGH MOISTURE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ALL POINT TOWARD AN INCREASED
RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM CELL TRAINING. OUR BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT
MAY BE A BIT EARLY TO PROMISE SUCH...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM COULD OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF
THIS REGION IS IN LONG-TERM DROUGHT...SOIL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY
RUNNING NEAR NORMAL FROM RECENT LIGHT BUT FREQUENT PRECIPITATION
EVENTS. THUS SOILS MAY BE PRIMED FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RUNOFF INTO
THE WATERSHEDS OF MANY DROUGHT-STRICKEN LAKES OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM
BUT NO MAJOR TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS FORESEEN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...BUT IT IS PROBABLY TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF A RAIN PRODUCER THIS ONE WILL BE
CONSIDERING A FAIRLY DRY FORECAST FROM THE ECMWF AND VERY WET ONE
FROM THE GFS. TR.92

[aggiecutter]

An amazing fact I thought I'd throw out there, there have been 4 tornado watches this year (all in the gulf coast southeast). There have been 0 (zero) severe thunderstorm watches in 2015 through early March in the US contiguous states. March so far (that I can find) has no reported Tornadoes. That is unheard of.

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore 5h5 hours ago
"This is now the quietest start to a year for tornadoes since 2003. My count for 2015 is 27 thus far" per @DrGregForbes

[WeatherGuesser]

An amazing fact I thought I'd throw out there, there have been 4 tornado watches this year (all in the gulf coast southeast). There have been 0 (zero) severe thunderstorm watches in 2015 through early March in the US contiguous states. March so far (that I can find) has no reported Tornadoes. That is unheard of.

SPC is showing 28 TOR LSRs, all in Jan/Feb. None in Mar. Unknown how many were confirmed:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/e ... e=20150225

[Texas Snowman]

An amazing fact I thought I'd throw out there, there have been 4 tornado watches this year (all in the gulf coast southeast). There have been 0 (zero) severe thunderstorm watches in 2015 through early March in the US contiguous states. March so far (that I can find) has no reported Tornadoes. That is unheard of.

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore 5h5 hours ago
"This is now the quietest start to a year for tornadoes since 2003. My count for 2015 is 27 thus far" per @DrGregForbes

Bastardi tweeted about this (slow start) today, he seems to think that the slow start will be followed by a 45-day period of above normal activity from April 15-May 31.

[gboudx]

Morning update from jeff:

After a couple of dry and pleasant days, rainfall looks to return as early as Tuesday night and again for the end of the week.

Storm system located off the west coast of Mexico this morning near Baja will eject eastward on Tuesday and across TX Tuesday night/Wednesday. Moisture will increase off the Gulf of Mexico today into Tuesday and peak Wednesday morning with PWS of roughly 1.5-1.7 inches which is fairly impressive for mid March. Strong lift comes to bear across a moist atmosphere late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected. Will focus the heaviest rainfall across our western counties Tuesday night where the potential exists for a period of cell training and then across nearly the entire area on Wednesday. Thunderstorms will be possible, but not expecting any severe weather. Rainfall amounts of .25-.50 of an inch on average with isolated totals of 2-4 inches possible especially west of I-45.

Surface front may slow and stall across the area on Thursday, but just enough dry air may push in to end rain chances. Next storm system heads for the region Friday and Saturday and this one is looking wet. Rains start in earnest on Friday and continue into Saturday. Too early to tell if there will be a flood threat, but wet grounds and potential for several inches of rainfall during this period certainly is worth watching.

Hydro:
Watersheds are in recession over the region, but still elevated. The lower Trinity remains above flood stage and will remain in flood through most of this week due to upstream releases. All other watersheds are back within banks. Additional rainfall this week will likely result in additional rises and some potential to return to flood stage given the saturated grounds.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Highest sigma for the MJO ever recorded. 4.10, wow.

[TexasStorm]

Thought for sure that someone had posted a link to a good write up about the lack of severe weather this year so far. Cannot find the link again though

[Ntxw]

Highest sigma for the MJO ever recorded. 4.10, wow.

That is crazy, think of the energy it requires for that. The record is from when? I think 1997 during the big Nino. Pacific is on steroids.

[wxman57]

Highest sigma for the MJO ever recorded. 4.10, wow.

That is crazy, think of the energy it requires for that. The record is from when? I think 1997 during the big Nino. Pacific is on steroids.

The record broken was 1985 (La Nina summer). However, it was a phase 4 MJO as opposed to the current phase 7. I'm not sure in what phase the peak in 1997 occurred.

[Ntxw]

Highest sigma for the MJO ever recorded. 4.10, wow.

That is crazy, think of the energy it requires for that. The record is from when? I think 1997 during the big Nino. Pacific is on steroids.

The record broken was 1985 (La Nina summer). However, it was a phase 4 MJO as opposed to the current phase 7. I'm not sure in what phase the peak in 1997 occurred.

I checked Australia's BOM site for Mjo they have an archive and March of 1997 had an intense p6/7 in similar fashion which likely was the record for Pacific phases before today.

That intense MJO progression gave us one of the most coldest April in the southern plains. Coldest April on record for DFW