STORM2K

So far, nothing here. Dry as a bone. Hoping it changes. Seems like it should.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 030248 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
948 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

.UPDATE...
The line of storms that extends from the southern Edwards Plateau
southward to the west of the Pearsall area over Frio County is
showing signs of breaking apart as of the 9:45 PM based on latest Doppler
radar image with the exception of the isolated strong storm west of
Pearsall. HiRes models suggest for the line of storms to continue to
dissipate as it moves to the east within the next several hours.
These HiRes models bring an end to the convective activity before
storms get to the San Antonio area. We will keep low PoPs for the
rest of tonight for areas along and east of I-35.

Out west, some HiRes models want to bring a second round of showers
and thunderstorms across the Rio Grande Plains overnight. This is a
reasonable solution based on latest area radar trends and have kept
intact the changes for rain (30 and 40 percent) for the Rio Grande
Plains for the period. A lull is expected later tonight for most of
the area, however, showers and storms are expected to affect the
region once again Monday, especially the Hill Country and parts of
the I-35 corridor during the afternoon period and late afternoon
into the evening hours across the Rio Grande Plains.

weatherdude1108 wrote:So far, nothing here. Dry as a bone. Hoping it changes. Seems like it should.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 030248 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
948 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

.UPDATE...
The line of storms that extends from the southern Edwards Plateau
southward to the west of the Pearsall area over Frio County is
showing signs of breaking apart as of the 9:45 PM based on latest Doppler
radar image with the exception of the isolated strong storm west of
Pearsall. HiRes models suggest for the line of storms to continue to
dissipate as it moves to the east within the next several hours.
These HiRes models bring an end to the convective activity before
storms get to the San Antonio area. We will keep low PoPs for the
rest of tonight for areas along and east of I-35.

Out west, some HiRes models want to bring a second round of showers
and thunderstorms across the Rio Grande Plains overnight. This is a
reasonable solution based on latest area radar trends and have kept
intact the changes for rain (30 and 40 percent) for the Rio Grande
Plains for the period. A lull is expected later tonight for most of
the area, however, showers and storms are expected to affect the
region once again Monday, especially the Hill Country and parts of
the I-35 corridor during the afternoon period and late afternoon
into the evening hours across the Rio Grande Plains.

I’ll believ it when I see it. Don’t get your hopes up too high is all I can say.

We might need to start watching the BOC in about another 7-10 days from now. If something forms it appears to want to just go into Mexico, but we’ll see.

Best Euro and Canadian runs I've seen in a long time. Widespread 3-6 inch rainfall totals across much of the state over the next 10 days. Please verify!

South Texas Storms wrote:Best Euro and Canadian runs I've seen in a long time. Widespread 3-6 inch rainfall totals across much of the state over the next 10 days. Please verify!

Wow, that’s awesome! That would be perfect

South Texas Storms wrote:Best Euro and Canadian runs I've seen in a long time. Widespread 3-6 inch rainfall totals across much of the state over the next 10 days. Please verify!

yeah we get the rain without a tropical system stalling or leaving us high and dry.. I think everyone would be happy

DFW almost 5 inches of rain on the Euro and the last 5 days of the run(starting Saturday) the high is below 85. Sign me up.

weatherdude1108 wrote:

austin06 wrote:I was feeling jealous because people in my town were posting pics of the 3" of rain they got last night while we got not a drop.

Then it started to downpour and has lasted the past 45 minutes. We have puddles! Most significant rain in months.

I did not get a drop last night, but saw lightning in distance. Still nothing here yet today either. Playing the waiting game.

We drove out to Wimberley yesterday. It is SO DRY in that area. So much brown grass and yellow shrubs between Austin and here. They need rain desperately. Looks like they missed out on the last two events in July and August by the way it looked.

Yes, last Monday we drove the back way from Dripping to San Antonio. Parts west of us were even drier than where we are, which was hard to believe - all of the creeks we drove over were bone dry. San Antonio seemed in better shape.

Hope you got some precip - we got a little over 2 inches, but just west in downtown Dripping they'd gotten nothing. This afternoon looks promising for the entire area.

austin06 wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:

austin06 wrote:I was feeling jealous because people in my town were posting pics of the 3" of rain they got last night while we got not a drop.

Then it started to downpour and has lasted the past 45 minutes. We have puddles! Most significant rain in months.

I did not get a drop last night, but saw lightning in distance. Still nothing here yet today either. Playing the waiting game.

We drove out to Wimberley yesterday. It is SO DRY in that area. So much brown grass and yellow shrubs between Austin and here. They need rain desperately. Looks like they missed out on the last two events in July and August by the way it looked.

Yes, last Monday we drove the back way from Dripping to San Antonio. Parts west of us were even drier than where we are, which was hard to believe - all of the creeks we drove over were bone dry. San Antonio seemed in better shape.

Hope you got some precip - we got a little over 2 inches, but just west in downtown Dripping they'd gotten nothing. This afternoon looks promising for the entire area.

Hopefully you get some rain over there! We had a good rain, again, this morning in Southside Place. Not nearly as severe as they were predicting from yesterday with a flash flood warning issued for the Houston area from midnight until late evening tonight. I do not see that being an issue at this point.

That being said, watching Gordan fire up is interesting to say the least as he has now started picking up the Gulf Stream heat and fuel. Gordan is developing quite rapidly this morning.

As long as it doesn’t rain from Noon on friday to midnight Sunday morning in CS, I’ll be happy.

Cypresso wrote:

austin06 wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:

I did not get a drop last night, but saw lightning in distance. Still nothing here yet today either. Playing the waiting game.

We drove out to Wimberley yesterday. It is SO DRY in that area. So much brown grass and yellow shrubs between Austin and here. They need rain desperately. Looks like they missed out on the last two events in July and August by the way it looked.

Yes, last Monday we drove the back way from Dripping to San Antonio. Parts west of us were even drier than where we are, which was hard to believe - all of the creeks we drove over were bone dry. San Antonio seemed in better shape.

Hope you got some precip - we got a little over 2 inches, but just west in downtown Dripping they'd gotten nothing. This afternoon looks promising for the entire area.

Hopefully you get some rain over there! We had a good rain, again, this morning in Southside Place. Not nearly as severe as they were predicting from yesterday with a flash flood warning issued for the Houston area from midnight until late evening tonight. I do not see that being an issue at this point.

That being said, watching Gordan fire up is interesting to say the least as he has now started picking up the Gulf Stream heat and fuel. Gordan is developing quite rapidly this morning.

We did get a few sprinkles this morning -- it so far.

Rain been very close, I mean within a mere 5 to 10 MILES of us yesterday just north and south. Wind even picked up briefly from nearby storms.

Today does look more promising. BRING IT!

Got about 4.75 inches at our house in Stephens County yesterday. It must have been a localized downpour because most of the area had 3.5 to 3.75 inches. Another nice line moving in right now from the NE!

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:As long as it doesn’t rain from Noon on friday to midnight Sunday morning in CS, I’ll be happy.

Oh, isn't there some kind of sports event in College Station on Saturday evening?

NWS looking at the potential for heavy rain today in portions of SE Texas today.

Very high pwats and dewpoints. This kind of set up will make some people angry and others happy. Localized 5" for some, humid drizzle for unlucky few.

Cpv17 wrote:

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:
I’m not expecting anything much from it here in SETX. We’ll be on the dry side of it

If we are in the vicinity of the low, lower surface pressure, with day time heating we will have some big rain makers despite being on the dry side.

How? When the storm will be north and east of us? That’s the dry side. Explain yourself lol

Yes, there is a drier side and a very wet side to your typical TS. In SE, most of the time if there isnt some sort of mid level high pressure over us, we will likely get rain. Add sun and a very soupy environment, you bet we will have big rain making storms.

2.1" at my house in austin!!! heavy rain and CG bolts!!!!! wooooohoooooooooo

Haris wrote:2.1" at my house in austin!!! heavy rain and CG bolts!!!!! wooooohoooooooooo

As Ntxw alluded to earlier, the nature of this rain is hit and miss. I live just a few miles from Haris and I've gotten doodley-squat today!

Portastorm wrote:

Haris wrote:2.1" at my house in austin!!! heavy rain and CG bolts!!!!! wooooohoooooooooo

As Ntxw alluded to earlier, the nature of this rain is hit and miss. I live just a few miles from Haris and I've gotten doodley-squat today!

I have gotten sprinkles myself so far.

Haris wrote:2.1" at my house in austin!!! heavy rain and CG bolts!!!!! wooooohoooooooooo

Must be nice. We have had less than an inch so far. Some OCM are expecting another round later tonight though. We will see. Right now our atmosphere is stabilized.
Unfortunately Galveston had over 10" of rain today along with quite a bit of street flooding making streets impassable and causing some businesses to close. To say the least the weather put a big damper on the last big tourist day of the season for them.

This rain event is a dud in my area. The past 3 days here we’ve had 40% chance, 60%, & 80% and all we got is .10”