STORM2K

Haris wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:Why is it that all this crazy weather is firing off north and east of Texas the past few weeks and hardly anything firing off over us?

While I really want a good thunderstorm and even a little severe weather, we def need to be grateful and careful as well when wishing for severe weather (myself esp) .

Over 10 people have passed away today. Very sad. Yet, people are still complaining about not having their fav show on air during coverage! Such heartless souls out there![url]https://i.ibb.co/MgkqB5W/Screen-Shot-2019-03-03-at-6-06-00-PM.png [/url]

Very disheartening but it is dixie alley season. I'd bet hedge funds that's where most of the action is this Spring.

Ntxw wrote:

Haris wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:Why is it that all this crazy weather is firing off north and east of Texas the past few weeks and hardly anything firing off over us?

While I really want a good thunderstorm and even a little severe weather, we def need to be grateful and careful as well when wishing for severe weather (myself esp) .

Over 10 people have passed away today. Very sad. Yet, people are still complaining about not having their fav show on air during coverage! Such heartless souls out there![url]https://i.ibb.co/MgkqB5W/Screen-Shot-2019-03-03-at-6-06-00-PM.png [/url]

Very disheartening but it is dixie alley season. I'd bet hedge funds that's where most of the action is this Spring.

Why is that though? What’s causing everything to go off over there and not further back west?

DFW already down to 30F

Wash, rinse, repeat. Same areas that have seen all the action will continue.

Really odd to me that Accuweather would say tornado alley is the hotspot this year, its been a long while since we've seen a busier year than Dixie. Saturday looking interesting though...

Cpv17 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:

Haris wrote:

While I really want a good thunderstorm and even a little severe weather, we def need to be grateful and careful as well when wishing for severe weather (myself esp) .

Over 10 people have passed away today. Very sad. Yet, people are still complaining about not having their fav show on air during coverage! Such heartless souls out there![url]https://i.ibb.co/MgkqB5W/Screen-Shot-2019-03-03-at-6-06-00-PM.png [/url]

Very disheartening but it is dixie alley season. I'd bet hedge funds that's where most of the action is this Spring.

Why is that though? What’s causing everything to go off over there and not further back west?

Their season peaks earlier than ours

Not that i wont deny last few years it never really shifted west

Horrible day east of us though if this is a sign its gonna be a busy spring

An El Nino pattern would actually favor tornado activity centered back to the west a bit. La Ninas are often the ones that go crazy to the east. The last notable El Nino year was 2015, which was rather active in the southern plains (although individual storms were rather grungy that year). El Ninos often get bad reps from storm chasers, but not all of it is founded. Sure, numbers may be a little depressed compared to La Ninas, but the tradeoff can be storms in the more chaser friendly high plans versus the forest laden southeast.

1900hurricane wrote:An El Nino pattern would actually favor tornado activity centered back to the west a bit. La Ninas are often the ones that go crazy to the east. The last notable El Nino year was 2015, which was rather active in the southern plains (although individual storms were rather grungy that year). El Ninos often get bad reps from storm chasers, but not all of it is founded. Sure, numbers may be a little depressed compared to La Ninas, but the tradeoff can be storms in the more chaser friendly high plans versus the forest laden southeast.

Agree

1900hurricane wrote:An El Nino pattern would actually favor tornado activity centered back to the west a bit. La Ninas are often the ones that go crazy to the east. The last notable El Nino year was 2015, which was rather active in the southern plains (although individual storms were rather grungy that year). El Ninos often get bad reps from storm chasers, but not all of it is founded. Sure, numbers may be a little depressed compared to La Ninas, but the tradeoff can be storms in the more chaser friendly high plans versus the forest laden southeast.

I see El Ninos (like 2015) as quantity over quality. There are notable out of season outbreaks (winter) that was flashy during El Ninos but it's the Ninas that offer some of the great chasing days (in particular moderate to strong Ninas). In Texas the Nino often can muddy conditions with a STJ. In addition the big -PNA jet streak Springs are more likely to occur with a La Nina as well as sufficient warming early Spring. If we were looking for a signature Spring event, we'd see a lot of warmth the next month or two.

Can we really name a significant risk day in Texas of late that produced something memorable?

Ntxw wrote:

1900hurricane wrote:An El Nino pattern would actually favor tornado activity centered back to the west a bit. La Ninas are often the ones that go crazy to the east. The last notable El Nino year was 2015, which was rather active in the southern plains (although individual storms were rather grungy that year). El Ninos often get bad reps from storm chasers, but not all of it is founded. Sure, numbers may be a little depressed compared to La Ninas, but the tradeoff can be storms in the more chaser friendly high plans versus the forest laden southeast.

I see El Ninos (like 2015) as quantity over quality. There are notable out of season outbreaks (winter) that was flashy during El Ninos but it's the Ninas that offer some of the great chasing days (in particular moderate to strong Ninas). In Texas the Nino often can muddy conditions with a STJ. In addition the big -PNA jet streak Springs are more likely to occur with a La Nina as well as sufficient warming early Spring. If we were looking for a signature Spring event, we'd see a lot of warmth the next month or two.

Can we really name a significant risk day in Texas of late that produced something memorable?

Last I can really think of that affected the DFW area was that Christmas of 2015 but I’m new to the severe weather scene.

Ntxw wrote:

1900hurricane wrote:An El Nino pattern would actually favor tornado activity centered back to the west a bit. La Ninas are often the ones that go crazy to the east. The last notable El Nino year was 2015, which was rather active in the southern plains (although individual storms were rather grungy that year). El Ninos often get bad reps from storm chasers, but not all of it is founded. Sure, numbers may be a little depressed compared to La Ninas, but the tradeoff can be storms in the more chaser friendly high plans versus the forest laden southeast.

I see El Ninos (like 2015) as quantity over quality. There are notable out of season outbreaks (winter) that was flashy during El Ninos but it's the Ninas that offer some of the great chasing days (in particular moderate to strong Ninas). In Texas the Nino often can muddy conditions with a STJ. In addition the big -PNA jet streak Springs are more likely to occur with a La Nina as well as sufficient warming early Spring. If we were looking for a signature Spring event, we'd see a lot of warmth the next month or two.

Can we really name a significant risk day in Texas of late that produced something memorable?

I'd say the Canton area tornadoes from April 29th, 2017 personally, although my perception of the risk beforehand might be inflated because I was out chasing the event that day. It's been a hot minute though.

The windchill here is 5.

Yukon Cornelius wrote:The windchill here is 5.

If its gonna be this cold it needs to snow

DFW is down to 28F, record is 20F?? Record low high for tomorrow is 35F. Can we break the record low and record low high?

Brent wrote:

Yukon Cornelius wrote:The windchill here is 5.

If its gonna be this cold it needs to snow

Brent, winter is over buddy. The weak niño wasnt setup to produce cold and snow for us. Tropical forcing wasnt setup properly for us.

Brent wrote:

Yukon Cornelius wrote:The windchill here is 5.

If its gonna be this cold it needs to snow

I enjoy the really cold temps just as much as snow. Fortunately winter up here was pretty decent this year. 2 icing events and 2 snows, one a dusting and one 2-3”. I’d be an ass if I complained any about it especially with other areas getting the shaft again for another year.

We really suck at snow this year

Flurries are being reported in Alabama now

hamburgerman7070 wrote:

Brent wrote:

Yukon Cornelius wrote:The windchill here is 5.

If its gonna be this cold it needs to snow

Brent, winter is over buddy. The weak niño wasnt setup to produce cold and snow for us. Tropical forcing wasnt setup properly for us.

honestly I thought winter was over weeks ago but this cold annoys me when there's nothing to show for it

Windchill now at 0.
Edit - Windchill at -5 at 6:15 AM. 3/4/19

Im 30F now. Windchill 19F. Most models had 36-37 right now.

Haris wrote:Im 30F now. Windchill 19F. Most models had 36-37 right now.

The cold has had a really hard time getting into southeast Texas. I’m about 2 and a half hours SE of you and we’re only at 42 here. Normally, you’re only about 5 degrees colder than me.