STORM2K

Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
12z Euro ensemble showing the kind of dam burst 500 mb pattern that can lead to major cold out break, Cold air bleeds south for a time, then upper feature comes out of the west and moved across southern Canada, Cold charges south after. Beware Ides of March for flip to winter

aggiecutter wrote:Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
12z Euro ensemble showing the kind of dam burst 500 mb pattern that can lead to major cold out break, Cold air bleeds south for a time, then upper feature comes out of the west and moved across southern Canada, Cold charges south after. Beware Ides of March for flip to winter

[url]https://i.ibb.co/BwS81GX/EURO.png [/url]

Oh no, Jack Frost is back & winter is not giving up yet . . .

Not saying I agree with JB but this year reminds me of 89 and we had two outbreaks with wintry weather: one in February and one in March. The March one was a shocker.

Potental Severe Weather is very possible March 10th-15th

6z GEFS

Marginal Risk in SE Texas (Including Houston) for Quarter Sized Hail & 65 mph wind gusts today . . .

00z Euro is close to a major Texas winter storm at D10.

Ridge pushing into WCAN dumping cold south with a cutoff moving into Texas

bubba hotep wrote:00z Euro is close to a major Texas winter storm at D10.

Ridge pushing into WCAN dumping cold south with a cutoff moving into Texas

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021030500/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

https://i.gifer.com/4jtL.gif

Euro:



Me: NOT AGAIN!

Iceresistance wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:00z Euro is close to a major Texas winter storm at D10.

Ridge pushing into WCAN dumping cold south with a cutoff moving into Texas

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021030500/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

https://i.gifer.com/4jtL.gif

Euro:

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc.png

Me: NOT AGAIN!

Depending on timing, that setup is pretty close to a classic Southern Plains springtime winter storm. Start with storms and heavy rain and then transition to heavy wet snow.

bubba hotep wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:00z Euro is close to a major Texas winter storm at D10.

Ridge pushing into WCAN dumping cold south with a cutoff moving into Texas

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021030500/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

https://i.gifer.com/4jtL.gif

Euro:

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc.png

Me: NOT AGAIN!

Depending on timing, that setup is pretty close to a classic Southern Plains springtime winter storm. Start with storms and heavy rain and then transition to heavy wet snow.

I won’t hold my breath on the snow potential, but I am intrigued by the severe potential. 12z GFS lacks instability, but wind profiles are notable.

12z GFS total QPF

Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi3
Establishing Twitter timeline, like Texas outbreak so when someone comes out and says 70s followed by major return to winter, is climate change, trap is set Maybe tho some will start looking now, so they don't weaponize this if I'm right. anyway, 12z Week 2 looks like Feb temps

Oh no . . . NOT AGAIN!

Quixotic wrote:Not saying I agree with JB but this year reminds me of 89 and we had two outbreaks with wintry weather: one in February and one in March. The March one was a shocker.

Yup, was thinking about that after his tweet. We’ve had several big March events up here along the Red River over the years, so I’m not prepared to fully write off winter just yet.

Also, I’ve been thinking about the December 1989 cold air invasion later that same year. I’ve already been wondering what we might see next winter.

I thought that Winter was over!

Iceresistance wrote:I thought that Winter was over!


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/snku_acc.us_sc.png

The real irony is that's the day I'm moving to Tulsa

Texas Snowman wrote:

Quixotic wrote:Not saying I agree with JB but this year reminds me of 89 and we had two outbreaks with wintry weather: one in February and one in March. The March one was a shocker.

Yup, was thinking about that after his tweet. We’ve had several big March events up here along the Red River over the years, so I’m not prepared to fully write off winter just yet.

Also, I’ve been thinking about the December 1989 cold air invasion later that same year. I’ve already been wondering what we might see next winter.

I hope not. 89-90 was pretty much snowless. That bout of cold though.

The biggest positive out of this winter is the high latitude blocking making an appearance right on target as we leave solar minimum. I am very upbeat for the next 5-6 winters that we will have shots.....until nothing happens next winter.

aggiecutter wrote:Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi3
Establishing Twitter timeline, like Texas outbreak so when someone comes out and says 70s followed by major return to winter, is climate change, trap is set Maybe tho some will start looking now, so they don't weaponize this if I'm right. anyway, 12z Week 2 looks like Feb temps

[url]https://i.ibb.co/N30jfkj/Para.png [/url]

Maybe I’m even more tired than I thought, but I’m having trouble making sense of this tweet. Something about climate change and cold, I guess

Looks like a cold snap for mid March. EPO flow is going to help deliver some kind of air mass coming out of Siberia. Chilly for March standards.

OMG, what is with Member #6 on the 18z GEFS??? (246 hours)

Iceresistance wrote:OMG, what is with Member #6 on the 18z GEFS??? (246 hours)

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_con_scpens_246.png

Assuming you actually got storms to form on member 6 and there wasn't some sort of mega cap, then yeah that would be rough.