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Re: Texas Spring 2021

Posted: Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:30 pm
by aggiecutter
Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
12z Euro ensemble showing the kind of dam burst 500 mb pattern that can lead to major cold out break, Cold air bleeds south for a time, then upper feature comes out of the west and moved across southern Canada, Cold charges south after. Beware Ides of March for flip to winter

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Re: Texas Spring 2021

Posted: Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:47 pm
by Iceresistance
aggiecutter wrote:Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
12z Euro ensemble showing the kind of dam burst 500 mb pattern that can lead to major cold out break, Cold air bleeds south for a time, then upper feature comes out of the west and moved across southern Canada, Cold charges south after. Beware Ides of March for flip to winter

[url]https://i.ibb.co/BwS81GX/EURO.png [/url]

Oh no, Jack Frost is back & winter is not giving up yet . . . :break:

Re: Texas Spring 2021

Posted: Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:27 pm
by Quixotic
Not saying I agree with JB but this year reminds me of 89 and we had two outbreaks with wintry weather: one in February and one in March. The March one was a shocker.

Re: Texas Spring 2021

Posted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 8:38 am
by Iceresistance
Potental Severe Weather is very possible March 10th-15th

6z GEFS
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

Posted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:12 am
by Iceresistance
Marginal Risk in SE Texas (Including Houston) for Quarter Sized Hail & 65 mph wind gusts today . . .

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Re: Texas Spring 2021

Posted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:57 am
by bubba hotep
00z Euro is close to a major Texas winter storm at D10.

Ridge pushing into WCAN dumping cold south with a cutoff moving into Texas

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Re: Texas Spring 2021

Posted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:07 am
by Iceresistance
bubba hotep wrote:00z Euro is close to a major Texas winter storm at D10.

Ridge pushing into WCAN dumping cold south with a cutoff moving into Texas

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021030500/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

https://i.gifer.com/4jtL.gif


Euro: :slime: :firedevil: :slime:

Image

Me: NOT AGAIN! :break:

Re: Texas Spring 2021

Posted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:13 am
by bubba hotep
Iceresistance wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:00z Euro is close to a major Texas winter storm at D10.

Ridge pushing into WCAN dumping cold south with a cutoff moving into Texas

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021030500/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

https://i.gifer.com/4jtL.gif


Euro: :slime: :firedevil: :slime:

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc.png

Me: NOT AGAIN! :break:



Depending on timing, that setup is pretty close to a classic Southern Plains springtime winter storm. Start with storms and heavy rain and then transition to heavy wet snow.

Re: Texas Spring 2021

Posted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 12:21 pm
by cheezyWXguy
bubba hotep wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:00z Euro is close to a major Texas winter storm at D10.

Ridge pushing into WCAN dumping cold south with a cutoff moving into Texas

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021030500/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

https://i.gifer.com/4jtL.gif


Euro: :slime: :firedevil: :slime:

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc.png

Me: NOT AGAIN! :break:



Depending on timing, that setup is pretty close to a classic Southern Plains springtime winter storm. Start with storms and heavy rain and then transition to heavy wet snow.

I won’t hold my breath on the snow potential, but I am intrigued by the severe potential. 12z GFS lacks instability, but wind profiles are notable.

Re: Texas Spring 2021

Posted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:45 pm
by Iceresistance
12z GFS total QPF

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Re: Texas Spring 2021

Posted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:47 pm
by aggiecutter
Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi3
Establishing Twitter timeline, like Texas outbreak so when someone comes out and says 70s followed by major return to winter, is climate change, trap is set Maybe tho some will start looking now, so they don't weaponize this if I'm right. anyway, 12z Week 2 looks like Feb temps

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Re: Texas Spring 2021

Posted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 2:01 pm
by Iceresistance
Oh no . . . NOT AGAIN! :eek:

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Re: Texas Spring 2021

Posted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 3:45 pm
by Texas Snowman
Quixotic wrote:Not saying I agree with JB but this year reminds me of 89 and we had two outbreaks with wintry weather: one in February and one in March. The March one was a shocker.


Yup, was thinking about that after his tweet. We’ve had several big March events up here along the Red River over the years, so I’m not prepared to fully write off winter just yet.

Also, I’ve been thinking about the December 1989 cold air invasion later that same year. I’ve already been wondering what we might see next winter.

Re: Texas Spring 2021, back to Winter?

Posted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 5:55 pm
by Iceresistance
I thought that Winter was over!


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Re: Texas Spring 2021, back to Winter?

Posted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 8:07 pm
by Brent
Iceresistance wrote:I thought that Winter was over!


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/snku_acc.us_sc.png


The real irony is that's the day I'm moving to Tulsa :spam: :spam:

Re: Texas Spring 2021

Posted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 8:20 pm
by Quixotic
Texas Snowman wrote:
Quixotic wrote:Not saying I agree with JB but this year reminds me of 89 and we had two outbreaks with wintry weather: one in February and one in March. The March one was a shocker.


Yup, was thinking about that after his tweet. We’ve had several big March events up here along the Red River over the years, so I’m not prepared to fully write off winter just yet.

Also, I’ve been thinking about the December 1989 cold air invasion later that same year. I’ve already been wondering what we might see next winter.


I hope not. 89-90 was pretty much snowless. That bout of cold though.

The biggest positive out of this winter is the high latitude blocking making an appearance right on target as we leave solar minimum. I am very upbeat for the next 5-6 winters that we will have shots.....until nothing happens next winter. :D

Re: Texas Spring 2021

Posted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:28 pm
by cheezyWXguy
aggiecutter wrote:Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi3
Establishing Twitter timeline, like Texas outbreak so when someone comes out and says 70s followed by major return to winter, is climate change, trap is set Maybe tho some will start looking now, so they don't weaponize this if I'm right. anyway, 12z Week 2 looks like Feb temps

[url]https://i.ibb.co/N30jfkj/Para.png [/url]

Maybe I’m even more tired than I thought, but I’m having trouble making sense of this tweet. Something about climate change and cold, I guess

Re: Texas Spring 2021

Posted: Sat Mar 06, 2021 11:37 am
by Ntxw
Looks like a cold snap for mid March. EPO flow is going to help deliver some kind of air mass coming out of Siberia. Chilly for March standards.

Re: Texas Spring 2021

Posted: Sat Mar 06, 2021 9:01 pm
by Iceresistance
OMG, what is with Member #6 on the 18z GEFS??? :shocked!: (246 hours)

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Re: Texas Spring 2021

Posted: Sat Mar 06, 2021 10:57 pm
by TheProfessor
Iceresistance wrote:OMG, what is with Member #6 on the 18z GEFS??? :shocked!: (246 hours)

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_con_scpens_246.png


Assuming you actually got storms to form on member 6 and there wasn't some sort of mega cap, then yeah that would be rough. :eek: