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Wnghs2007
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#61 Postby Wnghs2007 » Tue Oct 26, 2004 10:01 pm

wxguy25 wrote:
Wnghs2007 wrote:LOL. What will this mean in terms of the overal pattern of things?


it means the current pattern w/ a trough in the west and ridge over the central and EUS in the means will reverse if that warm water gets into the Gulf Of Alaska. It signals the negative phase of the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) and the Onset of a mostly Positive PNA pattern.


Ok thanks.
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#62 Postby yoda » Tue Oct 26, 2004 10:04 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:
wxguy25 wrote:
Wnghs2007 wrote:LOL. What will this mean in terms of the overal pattern of things?


it means the current pattern w/ a trough in the west and ridge over the central and EUS in the means will reverse if that warm water gets into the Gulf Of Alaska. It signals the negative phase of the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) and the Onset of a mostly Positive PNA pattern.


Ok thanks.


Wouldn't a positive PNA and a negative NAO increase the chances of snowfall in the East? Or does this depend on the EPO? By the way, what is the EPO?
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#63 Postby Wnghs2007 » Tue Oct 26, 2004 10:15 pm

LOL PNA=? Like what does the P..... N...... A.... Pacific? or something like that. Sorry for the not so wise.

Alright

Just list out as many winter terms as you know. Tell us there real name and not abbrieviated and what they mean. LOL Sorry to be so blunt but I need a lesson. :oops:
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#64 Postby wxguy25 » Tue Oct 26, 2004 10:20 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:LOL PNA=? Like what does the P..... N...... A.... Pacific? or something like that. Sorry for the not so wise.


Pacific North America pattern. Reflects a tripole of anomalies with those of similar sign over the SE USA and the other Near the Aleutian islands. Its favored in El Nino years since the El Nino extends the Subtropical ridge which which tightens the jet along it's poleward flank b/c of the enhanced temperature gradient in the horizontal resulting in the development of a strong pacific low.

the reverse of that (RNA pattern) is associated w/ La nina but both patterns occur regularly.
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#65 Postby wxguy25 » Tue Oct 26, 2004 10:22 pm

yoda wrote:
Wnghs2007 wrote:
wxguy25 wrote:
Wnghs2007 wrote:LOL. What will this mean in terms of the overal pattern of things?


it means the current pattern w/ a trough in the west and ridge over the central and EUS in the means will reverse if that warm water gets into the Gulf Of Alaska. It signals the negative phase of the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) and the Onset of a mostly Positive PNA pattern.


Ok thanks.


Wouldn't a positive PNA and a negative NAO increase the chances of snowfall in the East? Or does this depend on the EPO? By the way, what is the EPO?


Absolutely. A +PNA / -NAO together produces the coldest possible pattern for the EUS. Its also those times where the EUS trough can reach near extreme amplitudes.
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#66 Postby yoda » Tue Oct 26, 2004 10:23 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:LOL PNA=? Like what does the P..... N...... A.... Pacific? or something like that. Sorry for the not so wise.

Alright

Just list out as many winter terms as you know. Tell us there real name and not abbrieviated and what they mean. LOL Sorry to be so blunt but I need a lesson. :oops:


Sure...

NAO -- North Atlantic Oscillation
PNA -- Pacific-North American Oscillation
EPO -- Eastern Pacific Oscillation
ENSO -- El Niño-Southern Oscillation
SOI -- Southern Oscillation Index

Need more? :D
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#67 Postby Wnghs2007 » Tue Oct 26, 2004 10:27 pm

wxguy25 wrote:
yoda wrote:
Wnghs2007 wrote:
wxguy25 wrote:
Wnghs2007 wrote:LOL. What will this mean in terms of the overal pattern of things?


it means the current pattern w/ a trough in the west and ridge over the central and EUS in the means will reverse if that warm water gets into the Gulf Of Alaska. It signals the negative phase of the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) and the Onset of a mostly Positive PNA pattern.


Ok thanks.


Wouldn't a positive PNA and a negative NAO increase the chances of snowfall in the East? Or does this depend on the EPO? By the way, what is the EPO?


Absolutely. A +PNA / -NAO together produces the coldest possible pattern for the EUS. Its also those times where the EUS trough can reach near extreme amplitudes.



Ok Call of to the weather gods and tell them I would like 4 +PNA/ -NAO pizzas with extra snow sprinkled on top and a jar full of ice. :hehe:
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#68 Postby yoda » Tue Oct 26, 2004 10:29 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:Ok Call of to the weather gods and tell them I would like 4 +PNA/ -NAO pizzas with extra snow sprinkled on top and a jar full of ice. :hehe:


:roflmao: :roflmao:
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#69 Postby wxguy25 » Tue Oct 26, 2004 10:36 pm

yoda wrote:
Wnghs2007 wrote:Ok Call of to the weather gods and tell them I would like 4 +PNA/ -NAO pizzas with extra snow sprinkled on top and a jar full of ice. :hehe:


:roflmao: :roflmao:


:lol: Ill be on the phone first thing tomorrow morning.
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#70 Postby tronbunny » Wed Oct 27, 2004 1:56 pm

So these absolutely gorgeous days in sunny FL are near their end?
I have to say, we have been spoiled.
That graphic puts us on the edge of increased precipitation.
I don't like that. I want a REAL dry season, this year.
I just want to wipe the memory of the tropical season away.
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#71 Postby wxguy25 » Wed Oct 27, 2004 3:25 pm

tronbunny wrote:So these absolutely gorgeous days in sunny FL are near their end?
I have to say, we have been spoiled.
That graphic puts us on the edge of increased precipitation.
I don't like that. I want a REAL dry season, this year.
I just want to wipe the memory of the tropical season away.


don't count on it. El nino winters favor above normal precip over the state during the dry season.
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#72 Postby wxguy25 » Wed Oct 27, 2004 8:07 pm

Uh oh…we have trouble in the form of another major blocking episode over the North Atlantic as strong 50-50 low develops (as the result of phasing over SE Canada) and pumps the ridge downstream of it over Greenland sending the NAO strongly negative.

Here is the D7 (168hr) ECMWF valid the day after election day

Image

Note the split flow over the NW Atlantic and the strong ridging developing over Greenland.

By D8, 9 and 10 strong 50-50 low is anchoring the block and maintaining the –NAO.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/041028010125.gif

This ensures that A) there is NO warm-up coming for the northeast, and B) we will have to watch for a significant phasing event over the Midwest and OH valley. The PV--while strong and cold--is still over AK w/ strong PAC jet roaring onshore western Canada as evidenced by the tight height gradient over the North pacific. so as expected, not much change on that front.
\
BTW, the winter outlook is now online. Go to:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=51348

and click on the link in the post to read the discussion.
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#73 Postby Anonymous » Wed Oct 27, 2004 10:25 pm

We finally managed to eke out a high of 64 degrees today, and now we have another -NAO to contend with? WOW, I'm really cold here in N VA and beginning to believe we may have to put up with that cold -NAO right through the fall into and through the winter.

The heat bills are going to be absolutely horrific here in the East this winter. I know folks down south have had to suffer through summerlike humidity the last 2 to 3 weeks, but at least they won't have to fork over trailers full of hard-earned money to the heating companies. If you own a heating company, you are positioned to make a fortune this winter. It has been plain CHILLY to downright COLD most of October. I have been living in N VA for over 30 years, and I have never, ever seen SO MUCH PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS!! It seems as though it has been cloudy to rainy nearly every day this month.

I am so darn tired of this cold weather, that I wish I could go down to Australia's Outback where I know it's getting nice and toasty by now, and where I know that they (the Australians) are not having to suffer the gut-wrenching anguish of enduring colder than normal temps under cloudy, drizzly skies day after day, after day after day after day after day after day after day after day after day after day after day after day after day after day. It just goes on and on. I'm getting depressed, because of all the clouds all the time. This is getting ridiculous. Are we gonna have to put up with that dratted negative NAO for the next five months? This is completely insane! If I was living in Newfoundland, I could understand it. But I live in northern Virginia! I am tired of the negative NAO. I am tired of clouds, I am tired of rain, and I am tired of it staying ten degrees below normal every day. The weather is supposed to have ups and downs, but this October, all we've seen are downs. Clouds, rain, drizzle, temps consistently ten degrees below average here, and sharply rising energy costs.

A cold snow-filled winter can be fun but there are other things in life besides a stubborn negative NAO and ridiculously chilly cloudy weather all the time in northern Virginia.

If we were gonna have a 1997-98 type El Nino this winter with corresponding mild weather in the east, I would beside myself with joy!!

But this cloudy cold weather and endless -NAO is ridiculous and uncalled for. Some of us are reasonable and would like a break in the insane -NAO once in a while!
MAN I am SO tired of the cold already!!!

Oh someone please send me down to Belize!!! I heard they have highs in the upper 90s with dewpoints in the low/mid 80s!!!

Our weather is so messed up it's sad. It's not supposed to be chilly and cloudy with a -NAO all the time. I've been around long enough to know that.
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#74 Postby wxguy25 » Wed Oct 27, 2004 10:34 pm

Jeb wrote:We finally managed to eke out a high of 64 degrees today, and now we have another -NAO to contend with? WOW, I'm really cold here in N VA and beginning to believe we may have to put up with that cold -NAO right through the fall into and through the winter.

The heat bills are going to be absolutely horrific here in the East this winter. I know folks down south have had to suffer through summerlike humidity the last 2 to 3 weeks, but at least they won't have to fork over trailers full of hard-earned money to the heating companies. If you own a heating company, you are positioned to make a fortune this winter. It has been plain CHILLY to downright COLD most of October. I have been living in N VA for over 30 years, and I have never, ever seen SO MUCH PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS!! It seems as though it has been cloudy to rainy nearly every day this month.

I am so darn tired of this cold weather, that I wish I could go down to Australia's Outback where I know it's getting nice and toasty by now, and where I know that they (the Australians) are not having to suffer the gut-wrenching anguish of enduring colder than normal temps under cloudy, drizzly skies day after day, after day after day after day after day after day after day after day after day after day after day after day after day after day. It just goes on and on. I'm getting depressed, because of all the clouds all the time. This is getting ridiculous. Are we gonna have to put up with that dratted negative NAO for the next five months? This is completely insane! If I was living in Newfoundland, I could understand it. But I live in northern Virginia! I am tired of the negative NAO. I am tired of clouds, I am tired of rain, and I am tired of it staying ten degrees below normal every day. The weather is supposed to have ups and downs, but this October, all we've seen are downs. Clouds, rain, drizzle, temps consistently ten degrees below average here, and sharply rising energy costs.

A cold snow-filled winter can be fun but there are other things in life besides a stubborn negative NAO and ridiculously chilly cloudy weather all the time in northern Virginia.

If we were gonna have a 1997-98 type El Nino this winter with corresponding mild weather in the east, I would beside myself with joy!!

But this cloudy cold weather and endless -NAO is ridiculous and uncalled for. Some of us are reasonable and would like a break in the insane -NAO once in a while!
MAN I am SO tired of the cold already!!!

Oh someone please send me down to Belize!!! I heard they have highs in the upper 90s with dewpoints in the low/mid 80s!!!

Our weather is so messed up it's sad. It's not supposed to be chilly and cloudy with a -NAO all the time. I've been around long enough to know that.


Im well aware of the energy situation in the east, but theres not much you can do about it.

As far as Belize goes, you dont want to mess around with that kind of heat and humidity. trust me, you will want to leave. two years ago My Wife and I took a vacation to the equatorial regions of Brazil in the Tocantins and Maranhao Provinces so I know first hand.

Come to Florida. No snow, Some cold but not extreme heat like the aforesaid.
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#75 Postby Anonymous » Wed Oct 27, 2004 10:37 pm

yoda wrote:
Wnghs2007 wrote:Ok Call of to the weather gods and tell them I would like 4 +PNA/ -NAO pizzas with extra snow sprinkled on top and a jar full of ice. :hehe:


:roflmao: :roflmao:



Yeah thats funny! I want about 9, 458 pizzas with lots of cheese and super-hot Texas chilies sprinkled all over them with a large jug of Tabasco sauce for my beverage. Make the tomato sauce hot and spicy as ten-alarm chili! It's cold as heck up here and I am desperate for some good, old fashioned southern comfort!!

I am getting desperate for some nice sunny weather with a high of at least 75 degrees and dewpoints in the low 60s!! Well those pizzas should help me suffer through this long frigid ungodly fall and winter.

OBX jebwalks aside, I am just tired of all the cold cloudy weather lately. It does get old after a while.

I am starting to think about moving to Austin Texas with my relatives. It's just getting too cold here in N VA, and they do need my help.
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#76 Postby Anonymous » Wed Oct 27, 2004 10:42 pm

wxguy25 wrote:
Jeb wrote:We finally managed to eke out a high of 64 degrees today, and now we have another -NAO to contend with? WOW, I'm really cold here in N VA and beginning to believe we may have to put up with that cold -NAO right through the fall into and through the winter.

The heat bills are going to be absolutely horrific here in the East this winter. I know folks down south have had to suffer through summerlike humidity the last 2 to 3 weeks, but at least they won't have to fork over trailers full of hard-earned money to the heating companies. If you own a heating company, you are positioned to make a fortune this winter. It has been plain CHILLY to downright COLD most of October. I have been living in N VA for over 30 years, and I have never, ever seen SO MUCH PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS!! It seems as though it has been cloudy to rainy nearly every day this month.

I am so darn tired of this cold weather, that I wish I could go down to Australia's Outback where I know it's getting nice and toasty by now, and where I know that they (the Australians) are not having to suffer the gut-wrenching anguish of enduring colder than normal temps under cloudy, drizzly skies day after day, after day after day after day after day after day after day after day after day after day after day after day after day after day. It just goes on and on. I'm getting depressed, because of all the clouds all the time. This is getting ridiculous. Are we gonna have to put up with that dratted negative NAO for the next five months? This is completely insane! If I was living in Newfoundland, I could understand it. But I live in northern Virginia! I am tired of the negative NAO. I am tired of clouds, I am tired of rain, and I am tired of it staying ten degrees below normal every day. The weather is supposed to have ups and downs, but this October, all we've seen are downs. Clouds, rain, drizzle, temps consistently ten degrees below average here, and sharply rising energy costs.

A cold snow-filled winter can be fun but there are other things in life besides a stubborn negative NAO and ridiculously chilly cloudy weather all the time in northern Virginia.

If we were gonna have a 1997-98 type El Nino this winter with corresponding mild weather in the east, I would beside myself with joy!!

But this cloudy cold weather and endless -NAO is ridiculous and uncalled for. Some of us are reasonable and would like a break in the insane -NAO once in a while!
MAN I am SO tired of the cold already!!!

Oh someone please send me down to Belize!!! I heard they have highs in the upper 90s with dewpoints in the low/mid 80s!!!

Our weather is so messed up it's sad. It's not supposed to be chilly and cloudy with a -NAO all the time. I've been around long enough to know that.


Im well aware of the energy situation in the east, but theres not much you can do about it.

As far as Belize goes, you dont want to mess around with that kind of heat and humidity. trust me, you will want to leave. two years ago My Wife and I took a vacation to the equatorial regions of Brazil in the Tocantins and Maranhao Provinces so I know first hand.

Come to Florida. No snow, Some cold but not extreme heat like the aforesaid.



I love Florida. It's a beautiful place.................but I can't even begin to hack the hurricanes. I am scared to death of them. I would never be able to deal with 4 canes hitting Florida in one season. So, I visit Florida but am afraid to live there because of those hurricanes. They are NO fun.
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#77 Postby wxguy25 » Wed Oct 27, 2004 10:56 pm

Jeb wrote:I love Florida. It's a beautiful place.................but I can't even begin to hack the hurricanes. I am scared to death of them. I would never be able to deal with 4 canes hitting Florida in one season. So, I visit Florida but am afraid to live there because of those hurricanes. They are NO fun.


the 4 canes is an EXTREME anomaly. It doesnt reflect any long-term trend IMO.
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#78 Postby Guest » Mon Nov 08, 2004 7:43 pm

Love snow here. Lived in Germany and Australia from 96 (end- luckily I was in DC for the previous winter :) ) to 02. Got a trace of snow 1 or 2 times in Canberra, got 4/5 inches a couple times in Bonn. Come back here, get legendary 02-03 winter. Trust me, if you come from a snowy place and go to a snowless place, you really miss the snow. BTW, florida is nice, but I wouldn't like to live there. My favorite part is the Tampa area. Other great tropical areas are The Great Barrier Reef (SOOOO NICE!!! THE CLUB MED IS AWESOME TOO!) Bali (the rich parts), The Bahamas, Cayman Islands, and Southern Spain (Mediterranean but still great). Mexico is ok in the resort areas of the Yucatan.
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#79 Postby wxguy25 » Mon Nov 08, 2004 7:58 pm

I've been to Germany twice. Ramstien to be exact.

I don't Like Florida that much either, (the cost of Living is higher here than it was up there for someone in my income bracket) although it’s not so bad since im beachside along A1A. My wife likes it here though, so I doubt ill be going anywhere anytime soon.

Personally, I would much rather be back in the NY/NJ area which is where I was Born and Raised. Florida is too warm for my liking and Im not sure if I can take another snowless winter down here. LOL
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#80 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Nov 08, 2004 8:02 pm

wxguy25 wrote:I've been to Germany twice. Ramstien to be exact.

I don't Like Florida that much either, (the cost of Living is higher here than it was up there for someone in my income bracket) although it’s not so bad since im beachside along A1A. My wife likes it here though, so I doubt ill be going anywhere anytime soon.

Personally, I would much rather be back in the NY/NJ area which is where I was Born and Raised. Florida is too warm for my liking and Im not sure if I can take another snowless winter down here. LOL


Florida's definitely a hard place to live for a snowlover, but I'll work on conjuring up a nice deep low 200 miles off the Florida East Coast riding north-northeast with strong wraparound and throw in some CSI along the deformation band ... ok, I'm really reaching on this ...

SF
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