Severe Weather/Heavy Rainfall This Weekend for Texas

TexasSam · #61 Postby **TexasSam** » Mon May 08, 2006 1:43 am

Yankeegirl wrote:ok... I just looked at the line again, and it has a nice bow echo going on... Does not look like its loosing its punch...

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/mixed ... &type=loop

How can there be no watches for this storm??

I have been looking at the storms for a hour or so, and have been wondering why no watch, or anything.

Yankeegirl · #62 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon May 08, 2006 1:50 am

They looked like they were weakening, then they looked like they we getting a little better organized as they crossed the I-35 area... I dunno.. Im on the west side of town.. I will let you know if Im still awake when/if they come closer...

Shoshana · #63 Postby **Shoshana** » Mon May 08, 2006 2:28 am

Lots of wind. lots of rain, a whole lot of lightning. No hail here tho.

Moving pretty fast.

'shana

Yankeegirl · #64 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon May 08, 2006 2:30 am

It looks like its moving pretty fast... I am waiting for it... If it holds together it should be here soon...

Johnny · #65 Postby **Johnny** » Mon May 08, 2006 4:13 am

Well it definately held together. The sound of thunder woke me up and we are getting a big time xoaker right now with pea sized hail.

#66 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon May 08, 2006 6:25 am

Nothing down here in Spring Branch except a few sprinkles.

#67 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon May 08, 2006 8:34 am

Early this morning, we (Austin) had our FOURTH mesoscale system roll through town in four days!! :eek:

Picked up another inch of rain. Since Thursday, my part of town has received about 7 inches of rain. We're lucky in that sense. However, there are thousands of homes still without power from Thursday's nights storms, mostly in the older, heavily wooded neighborhoods in west Austin. As you can imagine, those folks are very unhappy.

All of this makes me wonder how miserable we'd all be if a hurricane moved inland and still had enough "punch" to knock out our power for 3-5 days. Hope I don't find out.

cctxhurricanewatcher · #68 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Mon May 08, 2006 8:41 am

Portastorm wrote:Early this morning, we (Austin) had our FOURTH mesoscale system roll through town in four days!!

Picked up another inch of rain. Since Thursday, my part of town has received about 7 inches of rain. .

I hate you! :lol:

I'll trade you an inch of fine, drought aged Coastal Bend dust for and inch of rain.

#69 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon May 08, 2006 8:58 am

cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Early this morning, we (Austin) had our FOURTH mesoscale system roll through town in four days!!

Picked up another inch of rain. Since Thursday, my part of town has received about 7 inches of rain. .

I hate you!

I'll trade you an inch of fine, drought aged Coastal Bend dust for and inch of rain.

I was waiting to hear from you!! :lol:

Buddy, if I could send some your way, I would.

Last week I had to drive down to McAllen from Austin for business ... while I wasn't too near Corpus, I did notice how everything south of San Antonio was really, REALLY parched. Hope your luck changes soon. :wink:

Extremeweatherguy · #70 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon May 08, 2006 9:28 am

wow, the SPC has really increased our severe risk today in SE Texas. We are even in a hatched hail area now and we are at 30% for damaging winds! could get interesting...

cctxhurricanewatcher · #71 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Mon May 08, 2006 9:32 am

Portastorm wrote:
cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Early this morning, we (Austin) had our FOURTH mesoscale system roll through town in four days!!

Picked up another inch of rain. Since Thursday, my part of town has received about 7 inches of rain. .

I hate you!

I'll trade you an inch of fine, drought aged Coastal Bend dust for and inch of rain.

I was waiting to hear from you!! Buddy, if I could send some your way, I would.

Last week I had to drive down to McAllen from Austin for business ... while I wasn't too near Corpus, I did notice how everything south of San Antonio was really, REALLY parched. Hope your luck changes soon.

It's been the worse I've ever seen it in my 10 years in Corpus and before then in the RGV. Alot of old timers around here say it's worse than the dust bowl era and the droughts of the 50's where we had months without any real rain to speak of.

On the other hand, one of the local mets had a small column in the paper last week where he noted the last 4 "real" hurricane threats to the Corpus area happened after real dry springs and early summers, the last being Bret in 1998. I think I will take 5 more months of this over a hurricane anytime.

PTrackerLA · #72 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon May 08, 2006 12:38 pm

cctx, looks like you might get some rain tomorrow according to your forecast, I hope it pans out. We have a 30% chance of rain here today, supposedly the old front is going to lift north and trigger showers and storms but so far today conditions have been fair. We are in the slight risk as well.

Yankeegirl · #73 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon May 08, 2006 1:38 pm

Its kind of funny, I look at the doppler and its pretty clear, and looking outside, it looks like its trying to rain, or it is raining, but its not hitting the ground ( i forgot the term for that) .. Its a very odd color outside.. kind of a dark orange... But the doppler is clear...

cctxhurricanewatcher · #74 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Mon May 08, 2006 2:03 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:cctx, looks like you might get some rain tomorrow according to your forecast, I hope it pans out. We have a 30% chance of rain here today, supposedly the old front is going to lift north and trigger showers and storms but so far today conditions have been fair. We are in the slight risk as well.

Yea, I know. And they have even mentioned the severe threat. But the last 2 big systems that have come through the state, we had the same chance (even greater with one) and nothing happen.

In other words I am not holding my breath.

Yankeegirl · #75 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon May 08, 2006 4:11 pm

We actually had a really good downpour here a little while ago, and there was still not much showing up on the radar... Must have been like a stealth storm or something? :cheesy:

Extremeweatherguy · #76 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon May 08, 2006 4:37 pm

Latest NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
403 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2006

.DISCUSSION...
KEEPING AN EYE ON A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION
THIS AFTN. ONE COMING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH ANOTHER HAVING PUSH-
ED JUST ONSHORE. WE STILL HAVE A BIT MORE TIME/HEATING LEFT TODAY.
LOOKING AHEAD..MODELS CONTINUING TO RUN CONSISTENTLY INCONSISTENT
WITH THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF UPCOMING EVENTS/FEATURES. FOR TONIGHT
(MAINLY OVERNIGHT) THERE ARE HINTS OF ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS/MCS
DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTH ALONG A SLIGHTLY SAGGING E-W SHEAR AXIS.
HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS FOR OUR NRN ZONES AND LOWER FOR THE REST.
WE SHOULD SEE A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY TOMORROW WITH THE ON
SHORE FLOW FIRMLY ENSCONCED AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER
70S ACROSS THE AREA. SOME ISOLATED TSRAS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN
ALONG THE SEABREEZE (OR ANY OTHER BOUNDARIES THAT MAY BE LEFTOVER
FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION). THE PREVIOUSLY FCST TUE NIGHT AC-
TIVITY HAS SHIFTED NOW TO WED NIGHT. THE NEW RUNS INDICATE A SOME
WHAT SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR TUE NIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO TONIGHT WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF MCS DEVELOPMENT JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. (THIS
TIME IN/NEAR EWX.) AGAIN..WILL KEEP SOME POPS FOR WED AFTN AS THE
SEABREEZE/LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES PLAY A FACTOR (AND PERHAPS SOME CLD
DEBRIS). WED NIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE THE BIG DAY FOR WX AS WE SEE
THE UPPER TROF/STRONG VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS WITH THE COLD FRONT.
SPC HAS US OUTLOOKED FOR DAY 3. AS FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PROGS
NOW A BIT MESSIER IN TERMS OF CONSENSUS. ETA STALLS THE FRONT AND
KEEPS IT AROUND THROUGH FRI. WILL KEEP WITH THE GFS TIMING ATTM..
AS IT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT. ONSHORE WINDS RETURN AREAWIDE
FRI NIGHT AS NWLY UPPER FLOW PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND. 41
&&

Looks like Wednesday evening will be the time to watch. Also, if the ETA ends up being right...then rain chances may increase for Thursday and Friday as well.

Extremeweatherguy · #77 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue May 09, 2006 6:48 am

well now it looks like instead of Wednesday night...our best chance will now be Wednesday afternoon. This situation seems to be constantly changing!

Yankeegirl · #78 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Tue May 09, 2006 12:36 pm

I know, it was supposed to be the weather was going to be bad Tuesday night, then it went to Wednesday night and now Wednesday afternoon.. lol... As long as it rains, Im good...

PTrackerLA · #79 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Tue May 09, 2006 1:05 pm

We only have a 40% chance of rain for Wednesday, hopefully they raise it because we still need lots of rain around here. Last Saturday was supposed to be a wash out and we ended up not getting anything. Doesn't that seem to always happen when you have really high rain chances?

Extremeweatherguy · #80 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue May 09, 2006 2:50 pm

Latest outlook from the SPC for tomorrow...could get active!!!

Looking at the models...it seems like things may start getting interesting here this evening with a few strong storms or supercells possible. The main event should hold off until tomorrow though, with a few strong storms and supercells during the day and a MCS tomorrow evening (probably before midnight)! Timing is looking much better with this system for Houston.

This morning the NWS was thinking differently though...with a 0% chance of rain today and only 30% chance tomorrow. I think, based on the SPC and models...they will have to up these numbers come the afternoojn outlook.

Severe Weather/Heavy Rainfall This Weekend for Texas

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