STORM2K

The risk Thursday is now only marginal, and Friday will be east of us.

Brent wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:This place is dead considering there could be a major severe outbreak in a few days.

Don't seem overly concerned here at the moment. More talk about the "heat wave" next week on TV tonight(which doesn't look that bad right now)

It looks like it’s going to be really bad 100 miles east of you.

Yet another system that looks good a week out that goes to crap, like clockwork. Fine with me though we definitely don't need any tornado outbreaks. Would be nice to at least get some rain though and maybe a non-severe storm or two but even that is looking questionable at this point.

Friday is looking absolutely nasty but luckily that's all east of here. System next week is looking interesting though, but it's so far out it'll probably downtrend too.

ElectricStorm wrote:Yet another system that looks good a week out that goes to crap, like clockwork. Fine with me though we definitely don't need any tornado outbreaks. Would be nice to at least get some rain though and maybe a non-severe storm or two but even that is looking questionable at this point.

Friday is looking absolutely nasty but luckily that's all east of here. System next week is looking interesting though, but it's so far out it'll probably downtrend too.

Everything is blowing up east of us.

This is a few years old but you get the point:

Cpv17 wrote:

ElectricStorm wrote:Yet another system that looks good a week out that goes to crap, like clockwork. Fine with me though we definitely don't need any tornado outbreaks. Would be nice to at least get some rain though and maybe a non-severe storm or two but even that is looking questionable at this point.

Friday is looking absolutely nasty but luckily that's all east of here. System next week is looking interesting though, but it's so far out it'll probably downtrend too.

Everything is blowing up east of us.

My Local TV met mentioned an active pattern through April, but unfavorable timing.

Summer is coming…

“Monday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90.”

Cpv17 wrote:This is a few years old but you get the point:

https://i.postimg.cc/8k6kmjP2/2936-C7-B0-A642-425-E-914-E-DB872936-CF9-C.webp

We'll see what happens in a month. I mean our peak season isn't for another 4-6 weeks here. It's no surprise the focus has been in Dixie in March

This spells trouble!

 https://twitter.com/ahberrington/status/1640805081003229184




 https://twitter.com/ahberrington/status/1640770838281564160

I've noticed that the CFSv2 model has a lot of action towards us in Early and Late April, but does the CFSv2 have a west bias of any sort?

Getting some much needed rain with the warm front/overrunning!!!

Wow, just wow CPC, if only it can go more west...

Iceresistance wrote:Wow, just wow CPC, if only it can go more west...

Yeah, they broke out the high risk. Pretty rare stuff. Hoping for some west trends.

I've been looking at the CFSv2 model for a while and it is showing an active Early April, extended lull in Mid April, then a VERY active Late April and into May.

Bring in the rain! The CPC is showing above-average rainfall for 3-4 weeks in a row!

Even with the coolish mid month stretch March will finish above normal for most of us. QPF slight below normal (south) to near normal (north). April will likely feature better rain chances as rising motion appears over the Pacific courtesy of emerging MJO signal that will constructively interfere. Wetter regime probably emanates first along the coastal plain.

Later into April and May may 'feel' more like an El Nino with qpf chances every few days.

I'm a little surprised that there aren't higher severe probabilities extended farther southwest into East Texas for Friday. 06z HRRR painted a string of pearls across the area. Anyone have more insight? I guess we'll see what the 12z run looks like soon.

cstrunk wrote:I'm a little surprised that there aren't higher severe probabilities extended farther southwest into East Texas for Friday. 06z HRRR painted a string of pearls across the area. Anyone have more insight? I guess we'll see what the 12z run looks like soon.

The HRRR is likely the southernmost model for Friday for now.

80.88% of the state has drought conditions in this new drought update.

12z CMC looks very interesting for San Antonio. 12z GFS looks interesting for DFW.