Florida Weather

[thetruesms]

Dry cold front, it won't show up on radar. In fact, there really isn't even much of a wind shift either because of the presence of a surface trough ahead of the front. Here's the 15Z analysis from HPC showing where the front was at a couple of hours ago:

[northjaxpro]

Red Flag warnings have now been posted for all of North and Central Florida due to the extremely dry conditions. We need rain very badly in these areas of the state. Here in Jacksonville, we have yet to see any rain whatsoever for the month of October, and looking at the extended forecasts, it appears no rain in sight for at the next five to seven days.

We just have to wait and see what happens during the next week with the possible evolution of a tropical cyclone in the SW Caribbean. Some of our reliable guidance models are hinting at "Richard" moving north out of the region during this time, and maybe, just maybe, it could send a surge of moisture northward toward the state.

[canes101]

Dry cold front, it won't show up on radar. In fact, there really isn't even much of a wind shift either because of the presence of a surface trough ahead of the front. Here's the 15Z analysis from HPC showing where the front was at a couple of hours ago:

Thank you thetruesms! I can already feel the affects in the air already tonight.. God I love this time of year. These are the nights where I open my bedroom window, put the fan up on the windowsill and blow that nice, crisp, cool air in.. I sleep like a baby!!

[canes101]

thetruesms Is there another one set to come through Next Thursday (around the 21st) as well? I notice there is another slight drop off in temperatures around that day as well?

[gatorcane]

All eyes will look to the south here in Florida next week as a megacyclone seems in order for the western Caribbean which may just become the most intense hurricane we have seen in the Western Caribbean this season.

We have not seen the "knock-out blow" cold front yet so the western Caribbean must still be watched for tropical threats.

[Aquawind]

Fantastic Weekend here!! Almost chilly in the mornings.. We still have 80's and 60's in the forecast so no worries!! Water temps still in the mid 70's so get to the beach now if you can!

[thetruesms]

whoops, that's what I get for being lazy and hotlinking an image But yes, there is another forecast front to make its way through later in the week. And with so little available moisture, it should likely be another dry one.

It's unrelated, but maybe we can squeeze some isolated showers in the southern peninsula as a weak upper disturbance moves through and draws a little more moisture up . . . maybe.

[JonathanBelles]

Still didnt get any rain here at FSU today. :|

[weatherSnoop]

Still didnt get any rain here at FSU today. :|

None back at the ole homestead either, fact

[JonathanBelles]

It is FINALLY raining after 27 days without rain here on campus. Officially .01" so far. Not expecting much more, but a little is something. I expect most of it to run off due to the very hard ground.

[psyclone]

the last 3 months demonstrate the feast or famine rainfall patterns that frequently plague Florida. rainfall in my back yard the last 3 months:
August 15.5"
September 2"
October (so far) 0

[Aquawind]

Well at least were not setting record highs anymore.. Some LL moisture so maybe it will rain with this next cold front! I just saw a high of 74F next Saturday and a 59F low!!!

[snowcane180]

Next saturday here in southern georgia little north of jacksonville. we are gonna see a high of 67 and a low of 35!!!

[psyclone]

it does look like rather potent CAA is in order by next weekend with highs struggling to get above 70 all the way down to the I4 corrider by next saturday! the low preceding this blast of chilly air looks to have some decent dynamics so perhaps some thundery weather is in order. meanwhile the US drought monitor now shows extreme drought over southern brevard county into northern indian river, coastal duval into northeastern st johns and an increasing area in the panhandle adjacent to the Alabama border. the gulf coast region and florida need rain so hopefully this system will deliver.

[northjaxpro]

Praying that we finally get some rain this week across the state. Here at my home in Jacksonville, I did not get a single drop of rain for the entire month of October. The current streak of consecutive days without any rain here now stands at 34. No rain since Sept.27. Amazing.

It looks as if a rather potent shortwave currently diving SE through the Southern Rockies and now entering the Southern Plains will deepen as it progresses eastward during this week. That should open up the GOM for some moisture hopefully to come our way during the Wednesday - Thursday time frame. Then the coldest airmass so far this Fall will come in behind the front over portions of North and Central Florida this weekend. It appears that minimum temps in the coldest locations of the panhandle and North Florida(i.e. Crestview and Tallahassee airport) stands a good probability to see temps drop into the mid-upper 30s this weekend. Here in Jacksonville, the forecast for now is calling for minimums near 40, although upper 30s in the colder interior portions of NE FL are certainly possible as well.

Looks like it least for the short term we will have some crisp and cool Fall weather this weekend. But, with the La Nina pattern, we probably will not be seeing much in the way of these big cold outbreaks in the state this season. So enjoy these cool spells while they occur, provided you are a cool weather lover like yours truly.

[dizzyfish]

If this forecast holds true, I will be a very happy lady. Rain AND cool weather!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
353 AM EDT TUE NOV 2 2010

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NE TX TODAY AND TO OVER THE
NW GULF WATERS TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AS
IT WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO LIFT THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING FOR A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS TONIGHT. THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW TO THE STRONG UPPER LOW IS IN PLACE OVER
THE TX/LA BORDER AND WILL SHIFT SE TO OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND A WARM AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND UPPER ENERGY MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN PASS OVER THE PENINSULA
THURSDAY WITH 60 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN IN PLACE. SOME STORMS MAY
BE STRONG THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH EACH MORNING.

[HURAKAN]

We got a few showers yesterday in South Florida

[AdamFirst]

Washout tomorrow, cold Friday night.

Fall, have I missed you so!

Thursday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 84. South southwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Thursday Night: Showers likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. West southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 71. Northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Friday Night: Clear, with a low around 43. Northwest wind around 5 mph.

[Florida1118]

Rain bands are starting to move into Pinellas, Hillsborough, Pasco, and counties northward...Very beneficial rain from this front...but NWS Tampa has a Fire weather watch out right now.

[dizzyfish]

Fire weather watch is for Friday afternoon, after the front.

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
206 PM EDT WED NOV 3 2010

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-050000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0056.101105T1700Z-101105T2200Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
206 PM EDT WED NOV 3 2010

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH
RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.