Caribbean - Central America Weather

[expat2carib]

Yes Let's wake up Islanders. I'm watching it. In my case especially because it's moving almost due west.

Here is the thread http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=108884&hilit=&start=120

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1107 AM AST WED AUG 11 2010

.UPDATE...A TUTT LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IS HELPING TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND FROM
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE VI FROM TIME TO TIME DURING
THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. THIS AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
TO PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO. FEW CHANGES WERE
DONE TO THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL INDUCE SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS MOST OF LOCAL AREA TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST/TISX AND TJSJ IN PASSING SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED AFT 11/18Z
IN SHRA/TSRA MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST WED AUG 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE AT 30 NORTH 60 WEST
WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE NEXT 60 HOURS AND THEN RAPIDLY RETREAT
NORTHEAST. A TUTT FROM THIS LOW WILL STRETCH SOUTHWEST ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...PULLING OVER PUERTO RICO ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAKNESS AND LIGHT WINDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST
CARIBBEAN NORTHEAST TO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

AT MID LEVELS...VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AND RETREATS
NORTH ALONG 35 NORTH IN THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND STRETCHES INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...FORCING THE TROUGHING FROM THE
NORTH WEST OVER HISPANIOLA. STRONG NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST RIDGING
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE NORTH CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL CONTAIN WEAK INVERTED TROUGHS. A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH SOME STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION NEAR
19 NORTH 53 WEST TO NEAR 13 NORTH 58 WEST. LOW PRESSURE IS
CURRENTLY SHOWN BY THE MODELS MOVING OFF OF AFRICA NEXT WEEK AND
INTO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND EXTEND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND OUR NORTHERN
WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE CONTINUED IN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE LOCAL AREA AND SPAWNED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN AND TOPS EXCEEDING 60 THOUSAND FEET FROM WEST CENTRAL PUERTO
RICO TO RINCON...AGUADILLA AND ANASCO DURING THE AFTERNOON. CELLS
WERE ALSO OBSERVED WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SAN JUAN AND FAJARDO.
IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO THE RATE OF CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
EXCEEDED 3000 STRIKES PER HOUR JUST BEFORE 3 PM.

MOISTURE IN THE MIMIC PRODUCT IS STILL STRONG AND ABOVE 2 INCHES
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND GENERATE A NEW
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY. MOISTURE
WEAKENS ON FRIDAY...BUT AT LEAST IN THE ECMWF...RETURNS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THAT SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

SEVERAL INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS WILL COMPLICATE MATTERS. THE WAVE
FROM WHICH A LOW PRESSURE SEPARATED TO THE NORTH NEAR 50 WEST
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA AND SHOULD ARRIVE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY. IT HAS SHOWN SOME ORGANIZATION NEAR 15 NORTH 56
WEST AND WILL BEAR WATCHING. CURRENT AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE
BEEN MOVING THIS AS A WEAK LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY
SINCE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DRYING OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS HAS BEEN WANTING TO DO. THIS WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE THEN CONTINUES INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WITH MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR PR TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PASSING SHRA
OR TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST AND TISX AS WELL ACROSS TJMZ AND
TJBQ UNTIL AT LEAST 11/23Z. FOR TOMORROW...DEEP MOISTURE AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. AS RESULT...INTERMITTENT MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDS...WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN HIGHER TERRAIN ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL TAFS SITES AFTER 12/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...MOIST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AND OCCASIONALLY THESE
WILL HAVE FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 60 TO 72 HOURS AND ARE
NOT VERY LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 120250
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1050 PM AST WED AUG 11 2010

.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR IS SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AS THEY MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST TJSJ 12/00Z SOUNDING SHOWED VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH PWAT VALUES OF 2.40 INCHES. IN ADDITION...
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SUGGEST PWAT VALUES OVER 2 INCHES
AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY. AS RESULT...FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...THEREFORE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY IN ISOLATED AREAS.

THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS LOCATED THIS EVENING ABOUT 250 MILES
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

[BZSTORM]

Cycloneye and Gustywinds did you both see the article on Yahoo news regarding "Flotilla of stinging jellyfish hit Spanish beaches" seems they are having same problem u both have been having this year - article says a combination of climate change and over fishing.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More rain for Puerto Rico / Virgin Islands today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST THU AUG 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE TUTT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LOCATED NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE BEING PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ONLY TO LIFT
NORTHWEST "BACK" ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS AN INVERTED TROUGH
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWEST...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IN GENERAL...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS FROM THE TUTT TODAY AND FRIDAY...TO PRODUCE A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. OF NOTE...EXPECT HEATING TO BE LIMITED TODAY...
BUT SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH GIVEN OTHER PARAMETERS...TO ALLOW FOR
CONVECTION. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED AGAIN EACH
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH OR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS
POINT...BUT A CONTINUATION OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND
LOCALIZED RIVER PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...MUDSLIDES AND
LANDSLIDES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EXPECT THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL
WAVE...ALBEIT IN A STRETCHED AND WEAKENED STATE...TO BE NEAR TO
OR PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY MOVING INTO/ACROSS THE FA...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
AS MENTIONED...TUTT AXIS SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RETURNING NORTHWEST AS AN INVERTED TROUGH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND MOVEMENTS
WILL MAKE FOR A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX AND CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE
LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH 12/14Z...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE VI...TKPK AND TNCM IN A PASSING SHRA THROUGH 12/14Z. AFT
12/14Z...EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CONDS ACROSS
TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJSJ THROUGH 12/22Z. LLVL WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN ESE
AT LESS THAN 15 KTS AGAIN TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION...FAIRLY TRANQUIL
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY...WITH WINDS OF 13 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 4
FEET OR LESS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LOOKOUT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND SEEK SAFE HARBOR AT THE
FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING WEATHER.

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye and Gustywinds did you both see the article on Yahoo news regarding "Flotilla of stinging jellyfish hit Spanish beaches" seems they are having same problem u both have been having this year - article says a combination of climate change and over fishing.

No. I missed that articule.

[cycloneye]

From Crownweather Services:

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

Possible Tropical Development in the Eastern Atlantic Next Week:
I am taking special interest in a fairly potent tropical disturbance that is located over southwest Sudan in Africa. Why is this?? The GFS operational, GFS ensemble and European models are all forecasting this system to track off of the west coast of Africa around the middle part of next week and track westward. All of the long range guidance is screaming significant development of this particular disturbance. Even though the GFS operational model forecasts eventual recurvature of this disturbance, the upper level pattern is showing a more east to west flow which would lead me to believe that this system would more likely cruise westward instead.

It should be noted and emphasized that ensemble models like the Canadian ensemble and the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) are forecasting a storm to be sitting off of the US Southeast coast in about 2 weeks from today. I do strongly believe that the model guidance are really trying to bang the drum loud and clear that something significant may occur in the next two weeks. So, keep a very close eye on the central and eastern Atlantic as a significant storm may be brewing for the last third of August.

[cycloneye]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
115 PM AST THU AUG 12 2010

PRC013-017-039-054-065-091-122015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0337.100812T1715Z-100812T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CIALES PR-FLORIDA PR-BARCELONETA PR-HATILLO PR-MANATI PR-ARECIBO PR-
115 PM AST THU AUG 12 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...FLORIDA...BARCELONETA...HATILLO...MANATI AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 113 PM AST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED AN
AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THESE
MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. DUE TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS
THESE MUNICIPALITIES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...SOILS ARE ALREADY
SATURATED...AND LOCAL RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT RAPID RISES
IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS THE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS AND ROADWAYS...THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA
THROUGH 415 PM AST.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST THU AUG 12 2010

PRC047-101-105-107-135-143-122130-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0335.000000T0000Z-100812T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COROZAL PR-OROCOVIS PR-NARANJITO PR-MOROVIS PR-TOA ALTA PR-
VEGA ALTA PR-
315 PM AST THU AUG 12 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COROZAL...OROCOVIS...NARANJITO...MOROVIS...TOA ALTA AND VEGA
ALTA

* UNTIL 5 PM AST

AT 305 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED THAT
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THESE MUNICIPALITIES
OF PUERTO RICO. DUE TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THESE
MUNICIPALITIES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...SOILS ARE ALREADY
SATURATED...AND LOCAL RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT RAPID RISES
IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS THE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS AND ROADWAYS...THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA
THROUGH 500 PM AST. FOR THOSE REASONS THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE
MUNICIPALITIES HAS EXTENDED.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST THU AUG 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TUTT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM A
RETREATING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT...HOLD NEAR SAINT CROIX
AND RETURN AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
MOVING WEST. A RIDGE WILL FILL IN BRIEFLY FROM THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...BUT A STRONGER TUTT WILL NOSE IN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
AFTERWARD.

AT MID LEVELS...A STRONG HIGH IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL NUDGE THE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE WEST. BY
TUESDAY A LOBE OF THE HIGH WILL BE LODGED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
TO THE NORTH. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IS TO ARRIVE EARLY THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WILL
RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW AND SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL MAINTAIN AND INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS DEVELOPED BEFORE NOON OVER WEST CENTRAL
PUERTO RICO AND IN THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. SHOWERS BECAME
QUITE HEAVY OVER THE AREA AND WEAKENED INTO LIGHT RAIN BEFORE 3
PM. HOWEVER...MORE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED FROM CATANO SOUTH
AROUND 3 PM AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THE MIMIC PRODUCT CONTINUES TO SHOW MANY OF THE PLAYERS THAT HAVE
BEEN WITH US SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...THE TUTT LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST...THE SURFACE LOW DISSIPATING NEAR 27 NORTH 50
WEST...THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING 60 WEST AND THE MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE DRY SLOT...THAT WAS ORIGINALLY FORECAST BY THE
GFS TO MOVE IN ABOUT NOW...IN RUNS FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS AGO...HAS NOW
FILLED IN WITH MOISTURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO ACTIVE
WEATHER THAT WILL CONTINUE GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA NOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE
HOWEVER WITH OVERNIGHT RESPITES OVER LAND IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
WINDWARD COAST OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH MODELS HINT AT DRIER AIR
TO COME LATER NEXT WEEK THIS IS UNCERTAIN. IN THE MEANTIME SHOWERS
AND MOISTURE ARE NOT SO PERVASIVE THAT THEY SHOULD CREATE ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...ALTHOUGH LOCAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 4 OR 5 DAYS...MAINLY IN THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

LOOKING WELL AHEAD...MODELS ARE EXPECTING A LOW PRESSURE TO COME OFF
THE COAST OF AFRICA...AROUND TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.
FORECASTERS WILL BE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDS ESPECIALLY ISX AT LEAST THROUGH 12/21Z. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR THROUGH 12/23Z WITH SAME
PSBL OVER TJSJ. SCT TRWS ARE EXPECTED OVER LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
13/14Z. SHWRS HAVE BEEN MOVG WNW AT 8-12 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED FOR THE MOST PART AND ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS FOR THE NEXT
7 DAYS. CURRENTLY NO EXERCISE CAUTIONS ARE PRESENT EITHER.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
929 PM AST THU AUG 12 2010

.UPDATE...TUTT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY..BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST...
BEFORE RETROGRESSING WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ONCE
AGAIN...LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH. THIS
WILL MOVE IN TANDEM WITH A WEAKENING/SHEARED TROPICAL WAVE NOW
LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS AND AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL THEREFORE HELP MAINTAIN A
FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...IN AGREEMENT WITH MUCH OF INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. LOCAL SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
AGAIN BE ENHANCED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO MID TO UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE
LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH 13/15Z...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TIST AND TJSJ IN A PASSING SHRA THROUGH 13/14Z. AFT
13/14Z...EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CONDS ACROSS
TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJSJ THROUGH 13/22Z. LLVL WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN ESE
AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
555 AM AST FRI AUG 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE TUTT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LOCATED NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE BEING BRIEFLY PUSHED
SOUTHEAST OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...ONLY TO LIFT NORTHWEST "BACK" ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AS AN INVERTED TROUGH LATER SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
BEHIND THIS FEATURE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE
LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IN GENERAL...STILL EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY REDUCED FROM THURSDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
FROM THE TUTT TODAY AND SATURDAY...TO PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED AGAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS OVER
PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. STILL DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD FLASH OR RIVER FLOODING...BUT A CONTINUATION OF URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND LOCALIZED RIVER PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...MUDSLIDES AND LANDSLIDES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR SUNDAY...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LINGER...AND EXPECT
THE "REMNANTS" OF THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BE NEAR TO OR ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THUS...GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AND LOCAL EFFECTS...EXPECT ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. MONDAY MAY BE
A "BIT DRIER" BUT CERTAINLY NOT RAIN FREE.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 13/15Z...
WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS TIST/TISX AND TJPS. AFT 13/17Z...BRIEF
MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF PR THROUGH 13/22Z. LLVL WIND FLOW
WILL REMAIN ESE AT 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF CONVECTION...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY...WITH WINDS OF 14 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 3 FEET
OR LESS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LOOKOUT FOR ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND SEEK SAFE HARBOR AT THE FIRST SIGN OF
THREATENING WEATHER.

[cycloneye]

This is todays discussion about what is ahead in the tropics by Crownweather.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

Elsewhere in the Tropics:
Everything is now pointing towards a pattern change over the next week or two which will likely have huge implications on both the hurricane season and any impacts on the US coastline or in the Caribbean.

Currently, the synoptic setup consists of a high pressure system over the southeastern United States and a trough of low pressure over the western Atlantic. This synoptic setup has persisted for much of the summer. The trough in the western Atlantic has enhanced numerous upper level low pressure systems that have crossed the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. These upper level low pressure systems have been the death of many systems that were trying to develop as these upper levels imparted unfavorable shear levels and dry air into these developing tropical systems.

All indications are that this current pattern will completely reverse over the next week or two. Over the next 7 to 10 days, a trough of low pressure will replace the high pressure system that is currently over the southeastern United States and an area of high pressure will replace the trough of low pressure over the western Atlantic. This new pattern will likely allow for a more favorable environment for tropical cyclones to develop and intensify. In addition, the Madden Julian Oscillation will be going into a favorable phase starting around next Friday and likely continuing through much of September. Given all of this information, activity is likely to ramp up pretty rapidly within the next 10 days and this will likely continue through September and likely October. In fact, many of the global model members are already showing this in their long range forecasts.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST FRI AUG 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP MAINTAIN ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS ON
SATURDAY. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWESTWARD AND
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. WITH
HIGH PW VALUES AND A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE...EXPECT INCREASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS AND ISLANDS TOMORROW AS THIS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
DUE TO SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...EXPECT ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH LOCALIZED
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
ISLAND.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE BOTH INDICATING PW VALUES WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEHIND THE APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE...EVENTUALLY DECREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN SO...THERE WILL BE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE...ALONG WITH OCCASIONALLY SURGES IN MOISTURE CARRIED IN
THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW...TO RESULT IN TYPICAL DAILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWER EXPECTED
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TO PREVAIL
ACROSS TJBQ...TJSJ...AND TJMZ AT LEAST THROUGH 13/22Z IN PASSING
SHRA OR TSRA. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REST OF TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS OR A
VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST...TISX...AND TJSJ OVERNIGHT...WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL SITES AFT 13/22Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...AS OF 2 PM AST...A TOTAL OF 1.32 INCHES OF RAINFALL
HAD ACCUMULATED AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN
SAN JUAN. WHILE THIS TOTAL REMAINS BELOW THE RECORD 1.79 INCHES WHICH
ACCUMULATED ON THIS DATE IN 1960...YEAR TO DATE A RECORD 52.34
INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...1.58 INCHES MORE THAN THE NORMAL ANNUAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 50.76 INCHES.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1040 PM AST FRI AUG 13 2010

.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOW SHOWING TUTT EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND BECOMING MORE ELONGATED...
ASSOCIATED TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
WHILE OVERHEAD TROUGH APPEARS TO BE NOW SPLITTING...WITH POSSIBLE
CLOSED CIRCULATION/LOW FORMING OVER PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING.
MODEL STILL SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW/NARROW TROUGH WILL RETROGRESS
WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TO AID
IN MAINTAINING UNSTABLE UPPER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...
A TROPICAL WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN JUST EAST
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD AND BRING ADDITIONAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE EXPECT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS REGION ON SATURDAY AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND FOR ENHANCED DIURNAL AND LOCAL TERRAIN
INDUCED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EARLY
MORNING PASSING SHOWERS WILL ALSO MAKE THERE WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND REACH THE COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL
AS PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING AS WELL AS MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN WILL REMAIN
LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO
RICO TAF SITES DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME
PASSING SHOWERS OR A VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST AND
TISX DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING. AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE
WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS TNCM AND
TKPK AFTER 14/03Z AND ACROSS TISX AND TIST AFTER 14/10Z WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA. MVFR OR EVEN IFR ARE EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS PUERTO RICO TAF SITES AFTER 14/15Z WITH MOUNTAINS
OBSCURATIONS AT LEAST THROUGH 14/22Z IN SHRA OR TSRA. TJSJ 14/00Z
SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT AND VARIABLY WIND FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM
THE SURFACE TO 30K FEET.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST SAT AUG 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL ENHANCE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT...TO RESULT IN
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THEREFORE CONTINUE TO EXPECT...PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS SECTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAPID RISES IN SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS AS WELL AS INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES
IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE BOTH INDICATING PW VALUES WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEHIND THE APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE...EVENTUALLY DECREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME AND WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS TO RESULT IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO
RICO TAF SITES DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME
PASSING SHOWERS OR A VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST AND
TISX DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING. AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE
WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS TNCM AND
TKPK AFTER 14/03Z AND ACROSS TISX AND TIST AFTER 14/10Z WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA. MVFR OR EVEN IFR ARE EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS PUERTO RICO TAF SITES AFTER 14/15Z WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AT LEAST THROUGH 14/22Z IN SHRA OR TSRA. TJSJ 14/00Z
SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT AND VARIABLY WIND FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM
THE SURFACE TO 30K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF LESS THAN 14 KNOTS AND
SEAS OF 3 FEET OR LESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH NO
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME.

&&

[cycloneye]

This is from Saturdays discussion by Crownweather Services.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

Eastern Atlantic Development Next Week With Up To Two Named Storms Possible:
Now, let’s talk about potential development in the eastern Atlantic. All, and I mean all of the models are forecasting tropical cyclone development in the far eastern Atlantic as soon as Wednesday or Thursday. This tropical development comes from a strong tropical disturbance that is located over western Africa and should emerge off of the coast of Africa into the eastern Atlantic on Sunday. It should be noted that the GFS model has forecasted this development for at least eleven consecutive runs. It should also be noted that all of the model guidance are now forecasting two tropical cyclones in the eastern Atlantic between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles in about 10 days from now and the long range GFS model is forecasting a third system forming in the eastern Atlantic in about 15 days from now. So, if the model guidance is correct (and I do think they are correct), then the parade or train of storms is about to start!!

There are a couple of other model trends that have to be mentioned. The first trend is that the model guidance as a whole is trending towards a stronger ridge of high pressure which would lead to these two systems pushing quite far west. In fact, the 06 UTC long range GFS model is forecasting a very close brush with the northern Leeward Islands around August 25th and then a visit to the east coast of Florida north of Cape Canaveral around August 29th. This is voodoo land in terms of model forecasts and should be taken with a ton and a half of salt; but the trend is going towards stronger ridging and a further west track. The European model ensemble guidance’s 10 day forecast is showing a strong ridge of high pressure across much of the Atlantic and I suspect that we may see the model guidance trend even further south and west in the coming days. In my opinion, I think we are looking at a pattern that would steer storms pretty far west in the Atlantic Basin.

I want to emphasize and implore one thing on all of you and that is if you haven’t done so already, please go over your hurricane preparedness kit and if you need supplies and can afford it, go to your local supermarket, your local Target, Wal-Mart or Lowe’s and purchase what you need. If you are new to living on the coast and don’t know how to put together a hurricane preparedness kit, then either ask a neighbor or friend or go to http://www.onestorm.org. This is a really good reference website and I highly recommend it!!

[Macrocane]

Heavy rains were registered yesterday in El Salvador, green alert was declared today because of the rains that are expected this weekend, yesterday rainfall in some stations:


Perquin 30 mm/1.18 inches
Santa Ana 32 mm/1.25 inches
San Salvador 33 mm/1.30 inches
San Miguel 48 mm/1.89 inches
Candelaria de la Frontera 69 mm/2.72 inches
San Francisco Gotera 104 mm/4.09 inches

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
244 PM AST SAT AUG 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 37N 31W. A TUTT LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY. LEFT OVERS OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
BRING AN INCREASE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTED TO DEVELOP AT
AROUND NOON OVER THE NORTHWEST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MOST OF THESE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE OR MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AT AROUND SUNSET.

THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS IS SHOWING AN INCREASE ON
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA STARTING TONIGHT. EXPECT
ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED AT AROUND 48 WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST...REACHING OUR LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS TJMZ...AND TJBQ AT LEAST THROUGH 14/22Z. ALSO...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TKPK AT LEAST THROUGH 14/21Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.
LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST AND TISX.

&&

.MARINE...BELOW NORMAL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AN INCREASE ON WINDS FOR MID
WEEK... ALSO INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.