Texas Spring 2018

[cheezyWXguy]

Not sure what you're seeing? 12z models so far have trended more progressive with the trough. Most show a band of showers moving eastward across the state Friday morning, with the thunderstorms holding off until far east TX during the afternoon.

At 19z Fri on the 12z nam, i see a second, albeit weak, broken line of precip that was not there on prior runs.

It still looks like the main severe risk area will be east of Dallas and closer to Tyler/Texarkana.

The trough will need to slow down for severe storms to fire closer to IH-35.

Completely agree. I see nothing on that particular run that suggests severe weather in dfw, but I did notice that afternoon precip initiated a little further west on that run, which to me, looked like a start.
As a “weather-weenie” I can talk about my biases for “wanting something to happen” and acknowledge them. My main concern for this event is that the dry line may still be being pushed too far east by the models, and may catch the metroplex by surprise at the last minute. This concern has been mentioned here before, and in forecast discussions from nws ftworth

[Lagreeneyes03]

Not sure what you're seeing? 12z models so far have trended more progressive with the trough. Most show a band of showers moving eastward across the state Friday morning, with the thunderstorms holding off until far east TX during the afternoon.

At 19z Fri on the 12z nam, i see a second, albeit weak, broken line of precip that was not there on prior runs.

It still looks like the main severe risk area will be east of Dallas and closer to Tyler/Texarkana.

The trough will need to slow down for severe storms to fire closer to IH-35.

Seems like this season so far most stormy activity has been east of Fort Worth, is there some kind of weather phenomenon happening there that's causing this?

[Brent]

At 19z Fri on the 12z nam, i see a second, albeit weak, broken line of precip that was not there on prior runs.

It still looks like the main severe risk area will be east of Dallas and closer to Tyler/Texarkana.

The trough will need to slow down for severe storms to fire closer to IH-35.

Seems like this season so far most stormy activity has been east of Fort Worth, is there some kind of weather phenomenon happening there that's causing this?

Pattern is just too progressive i think. All the setups this month have been a really narrow timeframe before it pushed east

[Haris]

My hopes for Austin seeing anything remotely sizable is dwindling . This is our only chance . We have a very dry pattern coming up. When the ensembles show no rain through the 27th, that’s bad! And this is spring!! SMH

[weatherdude1108]

My hopes for Austin seeing anything remotely sizable is dwindling . This is our only chance . We have a very dry pattern coming up. When the ensembles show no rain through the 27th, that’s bad! And this is spring!! SMH

I agree. Disappointing looking at the models. Although I would prefer the rain without all the severe weather. But this is Spring, and in Spring, we usually can't get rain without a severe risk associated with it, until about mid-June when severe risk has wound down almost completely, aside from flooding. Then it's tropical season, when we're hoping for tropical downpours.

[downsouthman1]

My hopes for Austin seeing anything remotely sizable is dwindling . This is our only chance . We have a very dry pattern coming up. When the ensembles show no rain through the 27th, that’s bad! And this is spring!! SMH

I agree. Disappointing looking at the models. Although I would prefer the rain without all the severe weather. But this is Spring, and in Spring, we usually can't get rain without a severe risk associated with it, until about mid-June when severe risk has wound down almost completely, aside from flooding. Then it's tropical season, when we're hoping for tropical downpours.

Just no more Harveys.

[cheezyWXguy]

I know I’m beating a dead horse, but the nam still looks fishy to me. 18z nam shows the thin, weak line I noted on the 12z, but at hour 48, the forecast sounding over dallas shows the cap having all but lifted and over 2700j/kg of cape. Between hours 45 and 48 shear vectors become more unidirectional, but it still suggests at least a severe threat. What am I missing that keeps the storms from firing more substantially? I see the dew point closing in on 70 degrees, so moisture is good, and I really can’t see forcing as an issue with such a strong trough approaching.

[Ntxw]

I know I’m beating a dead horse, but the nam still looks fishy to me. 18z nam shows the thin, weak line I noted on the 12z, but at hour 48, the forecast sounding over dallas shows the cap having all but lifted and over 2700j/kg of cape. Between hours 45 and 48 shear vectors become more unidirectional, but it still suggests at least a severe threat. What am I missing that keeps the storms from firing more substantially? I see the dew point closing in on 70 degrees, so moisture is good, and I really can’t see forcing as an issue with such a strong trough approaching.

That question may in itself be the answer. Will the storms fire quickly enough and coverage may be more limited? We're looking at a positive tilted base of the trough so it's not guaranty of favorable intiation compared to a negative tilted crossing. It will be easier to get mature storms to the east of us.

Ontop of that timing may not be that great with best forcing early in the morning, compared to if it were to occur past 21z in the afternoon.

[bubba hotep]

CIPS guidance

[cheezyWXguy]

I know I’m beating a dead horse, but the nam still looks fishy to me. 18z nam shows the thin, weak line I noted on the 12z, but at hour 48, the forecast sounding over dallas shows the cap having all but lifted and over 2700j/kg of cape. Between hours 45 and 48 shear vectors become more unidirectional, but it still suggests at least a severe threat. What am I missing that keeps the storms from firing more substantially? I see the dew point closing in on 70 degrees, so moisture is good, and I really can’t see forcing as an issue with such a strong trough approaching.

That question may in itself be the answer. Will the storms fire quickly enough and coverage may be more limited? We're looking at a positive tilted base of the trough so it's not guaranty of favorable intiation compared to a negative tilted crossing. It will be easier to get mature storms to the east of us.

Ontop of that timing may not be that great with best forcing early in the morning, compared to if it were to occur past 21z in the afternoon.

Its funny you mention 21z, because the forecast sounding looks even better than the 18z, with 3600 j/kg and a slightly more favorable shear profile. I get that coverage probably wouldn't be high with less than ideal forcing, but nothing at all in an environment like that? I dunno man...

[Brent]

RGEM also looks like an early window with the main event east

[Ntxw]

Its funny you mention 21z, because the forecast sounding looks even better than the 18z, with 3600 j/kg and a slightly more favorable shear profile. I get that coverage probably wouldn't be high with less than ideal forcing, but nothing at all in an environment like that? I dunno man...

Most guidance suggest there would be consolidation to our east by afternoon. It's not impossible to get storms to fire behind them but it's just usually not the ideal spot and not as widespread. Pwats cuts sharply along the front, the NAM is probably the furthest east because of its aggressiveness with frontal speed.

It all comes down to timing. A much slower system than progged would become more favorable. I would be much more comfortable calling for a bigger event with a negative tilt trough. You will have storms firing off a dry-line or triple point but that's much further north. I can see something that happened late last week as the high end.

[cheezyWXguy]

Its funny you mention 21z, because the forecast sounding looks even better than the 18z, with 3600 j/kg and a slightly more favorable shear profile. I get that coverage probably wouldn't be high with less than ideal forcing, but nothing at all in an environment like that? I dunno man...

Most guidance suggest there would be consolidation to our east by afternoon. It's not impossible to get storms to fire behind them but it's just usually not the ideal spot and not as widespread. Pwats cuts sharply along the front, the NAM is probably the furthest east because of its aggressiveness with frontal speed.

It all comes down to timing. A much slower system than progged would become more favorable. I would be much more comfortable calling for a bigger event with a negative tilt trough. You will have storms firing off a dry-line or triple point but that's much further north. I can see something that happened late last week as the high end.

I definitely agree with that, and I doubt we would even see coverage like what we saw last Friday. I just dont think it would shock me to see a lone supercell or two move their way over the CWA and capitalize on that environment. I just have a hard time believing the model depictions of virtually nothing. Regardless of ultimate outcome though, this will be an interesting learning experience for me.

[Haris]

Its funny you mention 21z, because the forecast sounding looks even better than the 18z, with 3600 j/kg and a slightly more favorable shear profile. I get that coverage probably wouldn't be high with less than ideal forcing, but nothing at all in an environment like that? I dunno man...

Most guidance suggest there would be consolidation to our east by afternoon. It's not impossible to get storms to fire behind them but it's just usually not the ideal spot and not as widespread. Pwats cuts sharply along the front, the NAM is probably the furthest east because of its aggressiveness with frontal speed.

It all comes down to timing. A much slower system than progged would become more favorable. I would be much more comfortable calling for a bigger event with a negative tilt trough. You will have storms firing off a dry-line or triple point but that's much further north. I can see something that happened late last week as the high end.

Are your thoughts for the Austin area the same overall?

[Ntxw]

Most guidance suggest there would be consolidation to our east by afternoon. It's not impossible to get storms to fire behind them but it's just usually not the ideal spot and not as widespread. Pwats cuts sharply along the front, the NAM is probably the furthest east because of its aggressiveness with frontal speed.

It all comes down to timing. A much slower system than progged would become more favorable. I would be much more comfortable calling for a bigger event with a negative tilt trough. You will have storms firing off a dry-line or triple point but that's much further north. I can see something that happened late last week as the high end.

Are your thoughts for the Austin area the same overall?

I'd say so. Odds are best east of I-35 and really along I-45 and beyond. The timing (as it stands) is not great. All of this looks too meridional flow to me with the ejection of the energy and is often favoring for the southeast US. A more zonal ejection of the 5h vorticity is the common with some of the biggest outbreaks in the southern plains.

[South Texas Storms]

It continues to look like much of Texas will not see much rain from tomorrow's disturbance. So frustrating to watch storms blow up just east of here when we need rain....

Long-range models are in decent agreement that the next storm system will track far enough south to bring us a better chance of storms next Friday into Saturday.

[rwfromkansas]

Early severe weather is often further east, but it's starting to be the heart of the season now, so it should start to move west. I remember being always frustrated in West Texas since the dryline was ALWAYS east of us until summer was basically there, which shut down the storms after maybe two good rounds. It's much nicer to be in DFW. It happens, but not near as much.

[Yukon Cornelius]

What a roller coaster of temps. Two freezes and freezing rain last weekend to lower 90s today and then back to lows in the 30s with a possible freeze this upcoming weekend.

[bubba hotep]

After shifting the D2 slight east, SPC has shifted it back west to I35. It looks like most of the 12z CAMs are firing the dryline in DFW but the storms don't do much. Then the models are firing another round of messy storms in East TX that rapidly buld into a stout looking line across the ArkLaTex.

[ngturner1]

Bubba, where are you finding that Texas SPC product?