Texas Spring-2015

[Texas Snowman]

From Larry Mowry:

"3:10pm-Warm front position will play important role on greatest tornado threat. If storm interacts with warm front, that can some times intensify the low level rotation. So it will be important to keep an eye on location of that front and if a supercell thunderstorm begins to approach it from the south or from the west."

[Texas Snowman]

From Norman NWS:

"@NWSNorman: 310pm - severe weather chances continue to slowly go down as stubborn clouds prevent air mass from destabilizing. Still watching. #okwx"

"@NWSNorman: @Gracie2880 NO very different story for the DFW area. Risk of severe weather much higher there. Follow @NWSFortWorth for details."

[TheProfessor]

I was searching for something in last years spring thread and then I thought heard someone cooking bacon, the only problem is that I'm in a library. It turns out it's rainy very heavily again. Lol

[dhweather]

With the persistent rain over the northern counties, no doubt Lake Lavon will exceed conservation pool. As of yesterday it was < 2'.

As of Noon today, it is now less than 1.5' below full pool with Collin County under Flash Flood Warning. If I remember the drainage map, most of Collin County of sits in the Lavon watershed.

You would be correct, sir!

Once we get to conservation levels, then they will start letting it drain into Hubbard and fill that bad boy back up (hopefully).


Looking at lake levels this morning, things are much better than just 4 months ago. Lavon is up 11+ feet in 3 months.

With a good soaking in the metroplex today, several lakes will get near conservation levels. We haven't seen that in a long time.

Right now:

Arlington is -1.49
Eagle Mountain -7.11
Grapevine is -5.96
Hubbard is -4.22
Lavon is -1.39
Lewisville is -0.30
Worth -3.23

As NTXW has noted, the western edges of the metroplex have been drier than the eastern half, but maybe we can put a dent in all of these today.

Maybe.

[stephen23]

tennis ball size hail and rotation in storm between abilene and coleman. That storm appears to be tracking towards the metroplex

[TheProfessor]

Did that storm south of Abilene just decide to turn North East? I hope not, and I hope it doesn't interact with the warm front. Where is the warm front located?

[TheProfessor]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tornado Warning
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
343 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

TXC059-083-399-441-242100-
/O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-150424T2100Z/
RUNNELS TX-TAYLOR TX-COLEMAN TX-CALLAHAN TX-
343 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALLAHAN...
NORTHWESTERN COLEMAN...SOUTHEASTERN TAYLOR AND NORTHEASTERN RUNNELS
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 342 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A LARGE
AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF NOVICE...
AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS WILL
BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL
BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...BUSINESSES AND
VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
NOVICE AROUND 350 PM CDT.
SILVER VALLEY AND OPLIN AROUND 355 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE LAKE COLEMAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS DEVELOPING. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3195 9979 3208 9978 3220 9949 3194 9944
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 255DEG 38KT 3201 9970

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...2.50IN

$$

[Texas Snowman]

[stephen23]

now producing baseball size hail per report. tornado warning

[Texas Snowman]

Moving towards the southern Metroplex...

[Texas Snowman]

Looks to have passed very near to Novice, a town of 142 people.

[Texas Snowman]

Hope this was just radar indicated and not fact because it passed very near this town:

"AT 342 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A LARGE
AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF NOVICE...
AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION."

[TarrantWx]

I would just like to point out that according to SPC mesoanalysis page effective helicity values across north texas are in the 300-500 range.

[Texas Snowman]

Larry Mowry reports that a large tornado was on the ground with that storm as of 3:56 p.m.

[Texas Snowman]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0438
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX / NRN LA / FAR SRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 242058Z - 242230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE AND A WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...RECENT MOSAIC RADAR DATA INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
STORMS OVER NERN TX INTO NWRN LA INVOF A WARM FRONT-OUTFLOW
COMPOSITE BOUNDARY WHICH IS MOVING NWD THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING WAA
REGIME OCCURRING ALONG A LLJ WHICH WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY TO 40-50
KT IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION.

WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE GENERALLY POOR...THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL
MORPHOLOGIES WITH A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

..MEAD/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 31989517 32399537 32659532 33349480 33479399 33329267
33079167 32619126 32179136 31699189 31499299 30449523
30819638 31989517

[TheProfessor]

I would just like to point out that according to SPC mesoanalysis page effective helicity values across north texas are in the 300-500 range.

With Helicity values that high any storm that developed out west won't have much trouble holding onto there severity. Aparantly before the Mayfest storm in 1995 the temperature was only 68 degrees but Helicity values had reacjed 600.

[stephen23]

the storm SE of Abilene appears to me moving ENE and getting a more NE movement to it. Looks like it may be headed this way

[iorange55]

You folks seem a little too excited about this severe weather. Let's hope those storms weaken a little bit by the time they reach us.

Still have over 100 miles to go.

[Texas Snowman]

Storms beginning to fire along I-20 to the SW of the Fort Worth and to the SE of Dallas.

EDIT: What can I say, I miss the daily weather interaction between the Heat Miser and the rest of the good guys!

[TarrantWx]

the storm SE of Abilene appears to me moving ENE and getting a more NE movement to it. Looks like it may be headed this way

I think that storm will probably head more easterly just because of the intense rotation. I'm more concerned about development in Parker county right now.