Texas Fall 2025

[Ntxw]

Eric Webb has a good read on X about this upcoming pattern change, says we are heading toward a severe -AO/-NAO/-EPO blocking pattern that starts before thanksgiving and lasts through the entirety of december, for those that want rain chances in texas, this is a very good pattern that could lead to enhanced rain opportunities for texas, but also much colder weather as well, can’t complain about that at all!

Latest euro weeklies today look even more favorable. If there was cold it is a pattern we would be screaming snow. Ridging over top with lower heights below, we saw this in January for the deep south snow. We will likely be looking for a threat first or second week of December.

[Stratton23]

Euro AIFS really has a big snow storm in west texas and the pan handle hahahahahah

[Ntxw]

The telling sign, even over a week ago, was the prediction by ensembles of the Aleutian low. Historically speaking prior to a lot of deep winter cold outbreaks the Aleutian low is present, attacking the SPV. No coincidence the strat is cooperating. Our weak to moderate El Nino winters that are legendary also have a dominant Aleutian low pattern.

For blowtorch patterns you would look for persistent equatorward Aleutian Ridge.





Oct 22nd.

See some decent signs from the ENS the first part of November may feature an Aleutian trough, which is against typical Nina Aleutian ridge. Aleutian troughs is often a precursor to some cold moving southward, tied with a good +PNA. Eastern trough may prevail in the new month.

[Stratton23]

Youre going to get cold when the EPO/ WPO both go negative and the aleutian low attacking the SPV , but some models suggests both of those teleconnections dive below a value of -3, could be severe cold potentially

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The telling sign, even over a week ago, was the prediction by ensembles of the Aleutian low. Historically speaking prior to a lot of deep winter cold outbreaks the Aleutian low is present, attacking the SPV. No coincidence the strat is cooperating. Our weak to moderate El Nino winters that are legendary also have a dominant Aleutian low pattern.

For blowtorch patterns you would look for persistent equatorward Aleutian Ridge.

https://i.imgur.com/xbT1OsT.png

https://i.imgur.com/jnfcxYF.png

Oct 22nd.

See some decent signs from the ENS the first part of November may feature an Aleutian trough, which is against typical Nina Aleutian ridge. Aleutian troughs is often a precursor to some cold moving southward, tied with a good +PNA. Eastern trough may prevail in the new month.

I've heard the term "Oshtok low" is good for our winters as well. In a very similar position as an aleutian low

[Ntxw]

The telling sign, even over a week ago, was the prediction by ensembles of the Aleutian low. Historically speaking prior to a lot of deep winter cold outbreaks the Aleutian low is present, attacking the SPV. No coincidence the strat is cooperating. Our weak to moderate El Nino winters that are legendary also have a dominant Aleutian low pattern.

For blowtorch patterns you would look for persistent equatorward Aleutian Ridge.

https://i.imgur.com/xbT1OsT.png

https://i.imgur.com/jnfcxYF.png

Oct 22nd.

See some decent signs from the ENS the first part of November may feature an Aleutian trough, which is against typical Nina Aleutian ridge. Aleutian troughs is often a precursor to some cold moving southward, tied with a good +PNA. Eastern trough may prevail in the new month.

I've heard the term "Oshtok low" is good for our winters as well. In a very similar position as an aleutian low

For sure! The Sea of Ohkhotsk low pressure/trough can drive up a -WPO and big arctic high over the Chukchi and Beaufort that sends us the classic big HP dome severe cold. Aleutian low is defined by it's ability to really take on the Strat PV, warming events tend to follow it's presence and often a central-eastern US trough.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Well, it's time for us to get some snow! Of course I am biased some, but i think Texas will have another snowy winter this year.

[rwfromkansas]

Somewhat skeptical of reaching freezing. Still 44 IMBY. Will see. NWS has raised grid points to above freezing for much of the metro. Regardless it will get cold.