2008 Severe Weather Thread

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Bunkertor
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#661 Postby Bunkertor » Thu May 08, 2008 2:18 pm

898
WFUS54 KBMX 081913
TORBMX
ALC057-073-125-127-082000-
/O.NEW.KBMX.TO.W.0100.080508T1913Z-080508T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
213 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...HUEYTOWN...BESSEMER...
SOUTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHEASTERN TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 209 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BANKHEAD LOCK AND DAM...OR 19 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAYETTE...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BANKHEAD LOCK AND DAM BY 225 PM CDT...
OAK GROVE BY 245 PM CDT...
SYLVAN SPRINGS BY 255 PM CDT...
MULGA...MAYTOWN...MINOR AND ADAMSVILLE BY 300 PM CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR ALABAMA.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...
CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3372 8693 3331 8695 3343 8762 3363 8762
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 269DEG 35KT 3353 8752

==========
361
WFUS54 KHUN 081909
TORHUN
ALC043-082000-
/O.NEW.KHUN.TO.W.0035.080508T1908Z-080508T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
208 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CULLMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 204 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 16 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GOOD HOPE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 46 MPH.

* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
GOOD HOPE.
CULLMAN.
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#662 Postby Bunkertor » Thu May 08, 2008 2:30 pm

233
WFUS53 KGLD 081928
TORGLD
KSC071-203-082030-
/O.NEW.KGLD.TO.W.0009.080508T1929Z-080508T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
229 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL GREELEY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN WICHITA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT/230 PM MDT/

* AT 224 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 6 MILES
SOUTH OF SELKIRK...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
7 MILES SOUTH OF LEOTI AROUND 300 PM CDT...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO HAS BEEN OBSERVED OR INDICATED
BY RADAR. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...SEEK SHELTER IN A
SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AND COVER UP.
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Re: 2008 Severe Weather Thread

#663 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu May 08, 2008 2:41 pm

A 10ºC spread between temperature and dewpoint, (22º vs 12ºC) and clear skies at Goodland, if any chasers are around there, they should have excellent visibility and good opportunities for pictures.
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Re: 2008 Severe Weather Thread

#664 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu May 08, 2008 2:57 pm

Huntsville in a warning...


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
241 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 236 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR THE
HUNTSVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
TRIANA.
MADISON.
REDSTONE ARSENAL.
HUNTSVILLE.
GURLEY.

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Pretty much stuff in the east

#665 Postby Bunkertor » Thu May 08, 2008 8:05 pm

Image
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Re: 2008 Severe Weather Thread

#666 Postby liveweatherman » Fri May 09, 2008 5:12 am

Image

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
Issue Date: 509 AM EDT FRI MAY 09 2008
Expiration: 610 AM EDT FRI MAY 09 2008

VAZ063-066>068-070>074-076-078>083-085-091010-
AMELIA VA-BRUNSWICK VA-CHARLES CITY VA-CHESTERFIELD VA-DINWIDDIE
VA-ESSEX VA-HANOVER VA-HENRICO VA-KING AND QUEEN VA-KING WILLIAM
VA-LANCASTER VA-LUNENBURG VA-MIDDLESEX VA-NEW KENT VA-NOTTOWAY
VA-PRINCE GEORGE VA-RICHMOND VA-
504 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHCENTRAL
VIRGINIA
...

AT 503 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM MECHANICSVILLE TO 15 MILES WEST OF
MCKENNEY...OR FROM MECHANICSVILLE TO 9 MILES EAST OF KENBRIDGE...
MOVING EAST AT 38 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
HIGHLAND SPRINGS AROUND 515 AM EDT...
MCKENNEY AROUND 525 AM EDT...
KING WILLIAM AROUND 535 AM EDT...
TALLEYSVILLE AROUND 545 AM EDT...
KING AND QUEEN COURTHOUSE AROUND 555 AM EDT...
CHARLES CITY AROUND 600 AM EDT...

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER
BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.

RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND
FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 317 AM EDT FRI MAY 09 2008
Expiration: 700 AM EDT FRI MAY 09 2008

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ065>068-070>098-091100-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-
NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-
ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-
DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-
MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-
ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-
CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-
313 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

...TORNADO WATCH 286 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.
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Re: 2008 Severe Weather Thread

#667 Postby Category 5 » Fri May 09, 2008 5:52 am

I was woken up by thunder and lightning shortly after 4am.

Image
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Re: 2008 Severe Weather Thread

#668 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri May 09, 2008 8:15 am

Jenna Bush's wedding just outside SLIGHT RISK are tomorrow.


0Z WRF MOS suggested a high of 97ºF at Waco (about 10 miles East of Crawford), as dry line surges through. But the relative humidity will be in the mid 20% range.

Image


(That is a link to SPC, which change at 12:30 pm, and be useless tomorrow morning, because I can't remember my Photobucket login and password, but the thread should have moved on to a new page by then.)
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Re: 2008 Severe Weather Thread

#669 Postby brunota2003 » Fri May 09, 2008 10:16 pm

Heh...had the crap scared out of me a few minutes ago when my NOAA Wx Radio started beeping:

SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 291
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1110 PM
UNTIL 400 AM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...
AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF GREENSBORO NORTH CAROLINA TO 80 MILES EAST OF NEW BERN NORTH
CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 290...

DISCUSSION...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE TIED TO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTING THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
SPREAD GENERALLY ESEWD TOWARDS THE NC COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
OCCUR IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ENHANCING THE SUPERCELL AND SUBSEQUENT
HAIL GROWTH POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER CORES...DESPITE THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND LIKELY SLIGHTLY-ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29035.


...EVANS
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Re: 2008 Severe Weather Thread

#670 Postby brunota2003 » Fri May 09, 2008 10:28 pm

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1114 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

NCC037-085-105-183-100330-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-080510T0330Z/
HARNETT NC-LEE NC-CHATHAM NC-WAKE NC-
1114 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN WAKE...SOUTHEASTERN CHATHAM...NORTHERN LEE AND NORTH
CENTRAL HARNETT COUNTIES...

AT 1110 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SANFORD...MOVING EAST AT 28 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... BROADWAY AND
SEMINOLE.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS HAS BEEN REPORTED 3 MILES NORTH OF
SANFORD.
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. HAIL MAY ACCUMULATE ON THE GROUND AND
AREA ROADWAYS AND POSE A HAZARD TO MOTORISTS.

==========
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1111 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

NCC157-100345-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-080510T0345Z/
ROCKINGHAM NC-
1111 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTY...

AT 1108 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR MONROETON...OR NEAR REIDSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 43
MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LAWSONVILLE.

HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN MAYODAN WITH THIS
STORM.
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

==========
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1101 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

NCC037-125-151-100330-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-080510T0330Z/
MOORE NC-CHATHAM NC-RANDOLPH NC-
1101 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH...SOUTHWESTERN CHATHAM AND NORTHWESTERN
MOORE COUNTIES...

AT 1056 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.
THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COLERIDGE...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SILER
CITY...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... HARPERS CROSSROADS AND
HASTY.
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#671 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun May 11, 2008 11:15 am

Next severe weather event should start Tuesday and continue through Thursday, May 15. Models differ somewhat, but the energy should return in time...
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#672 Postby RL3AO » Sun May 11, 2008 7:16 pm

For what has been the coolest year in like a decade (I think?), I can't wait to see this active season contributed to GW.
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Re: 2008 Severe Weather Thread

#673 Postby lurkey » Sun May 11, 2008 9:08 pm

http://www.wral.com/weather/story/2866222/

Severe thunderstorm watches issued; Suspected tornado hits homes in Jones-Onslow county (Eastern NC)
An official said high winds destroyed mobile homes Sunday in the Belgrade and Maysville community on the Jones-Onslow county line after a tornado warning was issued.

Patty McQuillan of the state Department of Crime Control and Public Safety said there was no immediate word on injuries. McQuillan said the Highway patrol estimated two dozen structures were damaged.

The state Department of Transportation has been called in to help remove debris on U.S. 17. Belgrade is on the highway between Jacksonville and New Bern. The National Weather Service said the winds hit about 6:45 p.m.

Onslow County Sheriff Ed Brown told the Daily News of Jacksonville that a store was demolished in Maysville

Josh Reinijer is a Camp Lejeune Marine who was traveling on U.S. 17 when the storm came through.

"There's an old store that's been destroyed, sheet metal dangling from power lines, wood and debris everywhere," Reinijer said. "There was one house with a piece of sheet metal that went through the window of their house."

McQuillan said the state emergency operations center also had reports of numerous trees down in Aulander and Lewiston in Bertie County.
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Re:

#674 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sun May 11, 2008 9:12 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Next severe weather event should start Tuesday and continue through Thursday, May 15. Models differ somewhat, but the energy should return in time...



New thread for that event already started by 6SpeedTA95.


Mainly Tuesday, but I imagine it will be expanded for a possible multi-day event.
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#675 Postby RL3AO » Mon May 12, 2008 4:51 pm

Smallest slight I've ever seen.

Image
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Re:

#676 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 12, 2008 6:33 pm

RL3AO wrote:Smallest slight I've ever seen.

Image


Most of the threat is in Mexico, that is why.
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#677 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu May 15, 2008 2:52 pm

After a wild first half of May, it appears that things will finally quiet down - next week will be the first since mid-April without a significant outbreak. Maybe the pattern is getting ready to shift northward for the end of May into early June? (I think June will be another brutal month, except farther north - several repeats of 1992 perhaps)
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Re: 2008 Severe Weather Thread

#678 Postby RL3AO » Thu May 22, 2008 7:13 pm

No. This is not a misprint.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
503 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2008

CAC065-230030-
/O.CON.KSGX.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080523T0030Z/
RIVERSIDE CA-
503 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM PDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL RIVERSIDE COUNTY...

AT 455 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PERRIS...OR ABOUT
4 MILS SOUTHWEST OF MARCH FIELD...NOW MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT 10
MPH. THIS TORNADO WILL BE 4 MILES SOUTH OF WOODCREST AT 515 PM.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HOMELAND...ROMOLAND...SUN CITY...QUAIL VALLEY...WINCHESTER AND CANYON
LAKE
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Re: 2008 Severe Weather Thread

#679 Postby wbug1 » Fri May 23, 2008 4:08 pm

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Re: 2008 Severe Weather Thread

#680 Postby liveweatherman » Mon May 26, 2008 7:05 am

Image


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA SHOULD RE-DEVELOP
WWD TO ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE SWRN U.S. TRACKING NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS BY LATER TONIGHT. ERN CANADA TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY.
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER ND/SRN MANITOBA...IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING ERN CANADA TROUGH AND
SHOULD REACH SRN QUEBEC LATER TODAY.



ONCE TSTMS DEVELOP...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH INITIAL
STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
00Z GFS/4 KM
WRF-NMM SUGGEST UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS THAT SHOULD MOVE ESEWD
INTO PARTS OF OK/MO AND AR TONIGHT PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS PROBABLE GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR SRN
PLAINS NOCTURNAL LLJ TO STRENGTHEN AND VEER OVERNIGHT.
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