2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Nice weather next several days

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

pssssst Texas (Tireman ) temps are about to take a fall here (but don't get too excited we aren't heading to the deep freeze yet).

Wishing ya'll best of luck re the upcoming rain event!!!

[vbhoutex]

OMG!!OMG!!OMG!!! Frank Billinsley showed a graphic with 4"of rain over our area!!!! I think I'm feeling woozy!!! That is more rain than I have had at the house in the last 5 months!! Please don't pinch me!!! I don't want to wake up from this dream!!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

OMG!!OMG!!OMG!!! Frank Billinsley showed a graphic with 4"of rain over our area!!!! I think I'm feeling woozy!!! That is more rain than I have had at the house in the last 5 months!! Please don't pinch me!!! I don't want to wake up from this dream!!

Your excitement can be heard all the way up here David!!!! Crossing fingers and toes for dry as dust Houston!!!

[vbhoutex]

From Jeff Lindner:

Gulf Tropical Threat‏

Another record setting day yesterday with BUSH IAH reaching 107, but big changes appear on the horizon.


Potential for tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf of Mexico late this week/this weekend with significant impacts possible on the TX coast.

Massive upper level ridge which has been over TX for months will finally be breaking down over the next 24-48 hours with a piece of the ridge moving westward into the SW US and the other piece moving eastward into the SE US leaving a weakness in the height field over TX. While this is ongoing the tropical wave currently over the western Caribbean Sea will move WNW into the Gulf of Mexico on the east side of an upper level trough axis. Surge of deep tropical moisture was expected to arrive Wednesday, but based on the latest guidance appears that it will be delayed until Thursday now, but much of this depends on how much development takes place with the tropical wave in the next 48 hours. The current thinking is that the wave will remain fairly disorganized into Thursday so this should allow at least some moisture to spread NW toward the TX coast increasing rain chances on Thursday.

Friday-Early Next Week:

Nearly all guidance now develops a tropical cyclone off the TX coast this weekend, but the models are not consistent on where and which way the system may move. The ECMWF rapidly develops a surface low off the lower TX coast and then slowly meanders the system W toward S TX over the weekend with a large circulation impacting much of the coast. The GFS develops a surface low south of Louisiana and moves the system very slowly W and WSW over the weekend only moving from SE of Lake Charles to near Freeport in 3-4 days! The CMC and UKMET both do not show significant development, although the CMC did show development on it runs yesterday and sent a system toward S TX. NAM is probably the most aggressive in bringing a strong tropical storm/weak hurricane toward the upper TX coast this weekend, but this model shows fairly quick development in the next 24 hours which seems unlikely.
Given the consistency of the forecast models to develop a closed surface low over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend, it appears at least possible that some sort of tropical system will form. Upper level steering pattern is one of weak steering with short waves passing far enough north of TX to leave any tropical system behind and high pressure far enough east and west to be a little help also. Whatever develops will be very slow moving and possibly remain stalled off the TX coast for several days. In fact the GFS keeps the system off the TX coast into next week. Just about any motion would be possible, with the most likely at this point being a rare WSW motion along the TX coast as the models seem to be keying in on the SW US ridge being strong enough to impart a weak ENE steering low, but that flow is very weak.

Potential Impacts:

What looked like a straight forward increasing rain forecast yesterday has now had this wrench thrown into it. Depending on where the surface low actually forms and where is moves (if at all) will determine what kind of rain chances need to the carried forward this weekend. Appears the widespread wet weather late this week may need to be held off until the weekend or later depending on how the tropical system evolves. Deeper moisture should arrive Thursday and that lone along with the seabreeze should produce at least 30-40% coverage on Thursday and Friday. After that the forecast will completely hinge on the tropical system developing over the Gulf.
The modeling of this system looks similar to Frances (1998) with a large slow moving circulation taking days to move inland. Will likely need to start ramping up seas and tides in the weekend period tomorrow if models continue to show development, especially if it appears that it will be south of our area which places the upper TX coast on the onshore flow “dirty” side of things. Other than that will take the wait and see approach until guidance can come into better agreement.
Residents along the TX coast should review their hurricane plans and monitor weather forecast leading into the holiday weekend.

[Flyinman]

I think that is good news. While the forecast is definitely for rain, I do not like the fact there is still a wide margin for error on who is going to get the rain. I know ALL of the state needs the rain, but I am going to be greedy and want it to come our direction! I guess the best possible track would be the WSW from the Upper Texas Coast down to Brownsville which would give a large portion of the state beneficial rain.

[Tireman4]

Another cold day in Houston:

Houston Intercontinental Airport
Lat: 29.97 Lon: -95.35 Elev: 95
Last Update on Aug 30, 1:53 pm CDT


Partly Cloudy

100 °F
(38 °C) Humidity: 31 %
Wind Speed: SE 13 MPH
Barometer: 29.87" (1011.3 mb)
Dewpoint: 64 °F (18 °C)
Heat Index: 103 °F (39 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

[vbhoutex]

103.6f at the house, 102f official, 103f at the weatherbug site. Looks like August will go down with one day below 100f. Here at the house that was a 99f day and I believe it was 95f officially. I am still not convinced that we are going to have a TC that will affect us this weekend. There probably will be a TC, but I am not sure it will affect us. I SURE HOPE IT DOES THOUGH!!

edit - 8/31- a whopping 0.06" of rain this month!!!!

[Tireman4]

Does it even matter anymore? Learned helplessness syndrome. That is what my wife calls it when you have just given up and said, Mother Nature, just pummel me with anything. Thank you sir, can I have another. Sheesh..Sigh


CLIMATE...
THE TEMPERATURE HAS REACHED 100 DEGREES AT BOTH HOUSTON AND
COLLEGE STATION THIS AFTERNOON...CAPPING OFF WHAT WILL GO DOWN AS
HOTTEST MONTH OF ANY MONTH ON RECORD FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. FOR
COLLEGE STATION...THIS IS THE 58TH DAY OF 100-DEGREE
TEMPERATURES...TYING THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR MOST IN A YEAR SET IN
1917. THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 100 DEGREES A TOTAL OF 30 OUT OF THE
31 DAYS THIS MONTH IN HOUSTON...SOMETHING THAT SEEMED ALMOST
UNTHINKABLE PRIOR TO THIS MONTH. THE AVERAGE DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN HOUSTON FOR AUGUST WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME EVER FOR ANY MONTH. THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN
HOUSTON WILL END UP CLOSE TO 90.4 DEGREES...WHICH EXCEEDS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD HOTTEST MONTH (AUGUST 2010) BY A WHOPPING 2.7
DEGREES. 35












http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[vbhoutex]

No matter how you look at it, this is just INCREDIBLE!!!
Today was a milestone at the house-the weatherbug site only made 99f today, while at the house we hit 101.8f and the official was 101f. Even though it was previously advertised that today would be the last 100+ for a while I think we will have at least one more. I continue to be very skeptical of our rain chances this weekend, even though the increased humidity was even noticeable today. this drought is so pervasive I don't put anything past it as being possible.

[southerngale]

I'm praying 93L brings some relief to the deserts of Texas!

I said this map was unreal weeks ago, but it keeps getting worse. I don't know what is worse than unreal.

100% of the state is in a drought!

99.01% is in at least a severe drought!

94.42% is in at least an extreme drought!

And 77.80% is in the worst drought category possible... exceptional!

UnFreakingReal. There. A new word.

[Shoshana]

^That's last week's drought map. This week's comes out tomorrow...

[horselattitudesfarm]

There is talk of changing the drought categories to go up to at least D8. As climate change amplifies, experts are talking about mega-droughts (especially in the southwest) which will need more severe categories of drought. Some of the D4 areas in Texas have been that way for months and are much drier now than when they were first categorized as D4 so they really need a D5, D6 classification at least.

[Shoshana]

This week's map is out

81.08% is in D4
95.04% D3-D4
99.01% D2-D4

And changing the categories sounds like a good idea. We've been in D4 for a long time here but I think other parts of Texas, like west Texas are much worse off than we are. But I don't know for sure because we're all in D4

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Moose Jaw.....currently 18°C/64°F Low 7°C/45°F

Me blowing due South REAL hard

(only I'm not wearing that jacket yet...but you folks will be if'n it gets down to you )

[Tireman4]

Moose Jaw.....currently 18°C/64°F Low 7°C/45°F

That is November weather for us.....

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Moose Jaw.....currently 18°C/64°F Low 7°C/45°F

That is November weather for us.....

The way things have been going this summer who knows....you might get to break another record!

[Tireman4]

Moose Jaw.....currently 18°C/64°F Low 7°C/45°F

That is November weather for us.....

The way things have been going this summer who knows....you might get to break another record!

God, aint that the truth. To quote our expert, Porta...WORST. SUMMER. EVER.

[~FlipFlopGirl~]

well so much for wishful thinking for a cooler and wet Labor day weekend the forecast high 99 friday, 104 Sat 102 Sun 91 Monday- not looking good for rain in central texas- The summer is getting old really fast

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

We don't see much on t.v. re the epic drought/worst summer ever in Texas (and prolly don't watch CNN at the right times) so I went looking at youtube hits and found this (I wish you Texans would take pics of the countryside):

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2gvNvD3b5pM&feature=related[/youtube]
(I know some areas look better due to irrigation (if they can still do that).

Another:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lL7VJUs3w5o&feature=related[/youtube]

[vbhoutex]

Moose Jaw.....currently 18°C/64°F Low 7°C/45°F

That is November weather for us.....

The way things have been going this summer who knows....you might get to break another record!

God, aint that the truth. To quote our expert, Porta...WORST. SUMMER. EVER.

101.3f at the house, 101f official and 100f at the weatherbug site. I OFFICIALLY GIVE UP!!! IT WILL NEVER RAIN IN TEXAS AGAIN. We are officially declaring Texas as a desert.