STORM2K

What sort of timing are we looking at in Dallas for this to start popping? Any balloons going up locally?

Numerous fires are already burning out in West Texas, this looks ugly.

bubba hotep wrote:We've had several booms of thunder this morning here in downtown. That could be a sign that moisture return was deeper than anticipated allowing these elevated cells to tap into some of the deeper instability. That deep moisture could make it easier for dryline storms to get going later.

Thunder has been prevalent this morning here as well.

bubba hotep wrote:Numerous fires are already burning out in West Texas, this looks ugly.

HRRR suggests supercells over Austin later today. One of the CBS Austin mets is on board with that solution . Hmm. Let’s see

Per SPC meso, pretty impressive parameter space developing between the departing elevated activity and incoming dryline. Also, noticed the tone of the local mets has changed over the last hour or so as the dryline has not been mixing east as fast as expected.

bubba hotep wrote:Per SPC meso, pretty impressive parameter space developing between the departing elevated activity and incoming dryline. Also, noticed the tone of the local mets has changed over the last hour or so as the dryline has not been mixing east as fast as expected.

In addition to the impressive parameters (Supercell composite >12 and STP >2), it looks like the LFC height has lowered significantly just to the west of the Metroplex and is nearing the LCL height. The LCL-LFC mean RH% is also quite high which usually is an indicator that convection is about to develop.

TarrantWx wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Per SPC meso, pretty impressive parameter space developing between the departing elevated activity and incoming dryline. Also, noticed the tone of the local mets has changed over the last hour or so as the dryline has not been mixing east as fast as expected.

In addition to the impressive parameters (Supercell composite >12 and STP >2), it looks like the LFC height has lowered significantly just to the west of the Metroplex and is nearing the LCL height. The LCL-LFC mean RH% is also quite high which usually is an indicator that convection is about to develop.

Moisture depth and quality appears to be better than what the models were showing earlier in the week. Modeled soundings were showing a very dry layer around H7 earlier in the week when they weren't firing the dryline in DFW. So the combo of better moisture and slower dryline has storms potentially firing just west of DFW vs east.

Watch coming for N. Texas




Mesoscale Discussion 0237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Areas affected...north central Texas through eastern
Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...southwest Missouri and northwest
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 131739Z - 131945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop early to mid
afternoon from north central Texas through east Oklahoma and
southeast Kansas posing a risk for very large hail, damaging wind
and a few tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible imagery shows boundary-layer cumulus
increasing along sharpening dryline and dryline/cold front merger
from southeast KS through central OK and north central TX. Cloud
breaks and low-level theta-e advection is promoting destabilization,
and objective analysis shows a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in
warm sector. The atmosphere still appears capped by an inversion
located around 800 mb associated with warm air at the base of the
elevated mixed layer. However deep ascent with a lead shortwave
trough continues to act on this layer, and should eventually erode
the inversion such that surface-based storms will initiate along the
dryline during the next couple hours. The 18Z Fort Worth RAOB showed
substantial cooling in the capping layer compared to the 12Z. While
deep-layer shear is very strong (50-55 kt), VWP data continues to
indicate veer-back-veer characteristics, possibly due to the effects
of the lead shortwave trough. Low-level hodographs are initially
large with current 0-1 km storm relative helicity around 250+ m2/s2.
However, some decrease in 0-1 km hodograph size should occur as the
low-level jet shifts east. Nevertheless, the overall environment is
supportive of supercells and bowing segments capable of very large
hail, damaging wind and a few tornadoes this afternoon.

..Dial/Hart.. 04/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN..

Lots of sun out now in downtown Dallas...

I'm in Waco headng to Round Rock for the weekend so cue the outbreak in the metro

TORNADO WATCH
ISSUED: 1:24 PM APR. 13, 2018 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 39 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 30 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL TEXAS

ANDERSON BOSQUE FREESTONE
HENDERSON HILL LIMESTONE
MCLENNAN

IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

COLLIN COOKE DALLAS
DELTA DENTON ELLIS
FANNIN GRAYSON HOOD
HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON
KAUFMAN LAMAR MONTAGUE
NAVARRO PARKER RAINS
ROCKWALL SOMERVELL TARRANT
VAN ZANDT WISE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALLEN, ARLINGTON, ATHENS, BONHAM,
BOWIE, BRIAR, BRIDGEPORT, BURLESON, CANTON, CARROLLTON, CLEBURNE,
CLIFTON, COMMERCE, COOPER, CORSICANA, DALLAS, DECATUR, DENISON,
DENTON, EAST TAWAKONI, EDGEWOOD, EMORY, ENNIS, FAIRFIELD,
FLOWER MOUND, FORNEY, FORT WORTH, FRISCO, GAINESVILLE, GLEN ROSE,
GRANBURY, GRAND SALINE, GREENVILLE, GROESBECK, GUN BARREL CITY,
HEATH, HILLSBORO, KAUFMAN, LEWISVILLE, MCKINNEY, MERIDIAN, MEXIA,
MIDLOTHIAN, NOCONA, OAK TRAIL SHORES, PALESTINE, PARIS, PLANO,
POINT, ROCKWALL, SHERMAN, SULPHUR SPRINGS, TEAGUE, TERRELL,
VALLEY MILLS, VAN, WACO, WAXAHACHIE, WEATHERFORD, WILLS POINT,
AND WORTHAM.

Very good severe weather discussion from Jeff Piotrowski:

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1yoKMkMOqWnJQ

All eyes on the dry line

In line at school waiting for my daughter looking northwest and can see some very tall cloud formations in the distance. The cap is weakening it seems with the dryline farther west than first thought.

It's a very fine line between sharp dewpoint cutoffs though. Weatherford is falling into the 50s DP while near 70 for eastplexers. They will need to fire fast. Greatest supercell composite is I-35E and eastward. Storms will have a better chance at going off once the line hits Collin/Dallas counties if they do

Storm starting to fire sw of Ft Worth.

WacoWx wrote:Storm starting to fire sw of Ft Worth.

Was coming to post about that one, if it can maintain, it has plenty of time to mature before moving into DFW.

Looks like like Dallas and FTW proper may be spared. Seems to be going to Denton/Collin and south around Johnson/Ellis