STORM2K

bubba hotep wrote:Yesterday's event put DFW +4" for the year, and the 00z EPS says more rain is on the way.

https://m3o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/epsens/2024042100/360/qpf_acc-mean-imp.us_sc.png

Yep, the day after the Byron Nelson golf tournament, which is the weekend it always rains in north Texas.

Had a nice 2.71" on Saturday.

This morning was also pretty chilly - 39F.

CaptinCrunch wrote:2.25" at the Casa so far.

Saturday ended with over 4" of rain at the house. The Firepit is a frog pond and the front has a mini lake in the center. A very good day for the water sheds, lakes and ponds across DFW with this round.

The latest Larry Cosgrove update mentions June 1 as the start for the heat, though he expects it to start sooner further south into Mexico. But, it seems to be pushing back a bit like he did with the cold chances in later winter.

Well, this is a fun new product that makes us hate our life here: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/

rwfromkansas wrote:The latest Larry Cosgrove update mentions June 1 as the start for the heat, though he expects it to start sooner further south into Mexico. But, it seems to be pushing back a bit like he did with the cold chances in later winter.

To clarify, he was referring to the country as a whole for the June 1st date.

For us in Texas and vicinity, he's been pretty steadfast with expecting a hotter pattern to settle in around May 15th.

In "The Weather Channel where are they now?" category, remember hurricane hunter Nicole Mitchell?



Well she's now a MN state senator...and arrested for a 4:45 am burglary. Her backpack of loot got stuck in a window:

https://www.fox9.com/news/sen-nicole-mitchell-burglary-charges-i-know-i-did-something-bad

rwfromkansas wrote:Well, this is a fun new product that makes us hate our life here: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/

Stay away Magenta weather

Well Brent, here comes your rain soon! Told ya it was coming.

Cpv17 wrote:Well Brent, here comes your rain soon! Told ya it was coming.

Gonna be interesting. A TV station already has a "high" chance of severe weather Saturday too

I'm still wondering if the cap will be breakable on Thursday or not, especially with how dry the EML source region has been lately. Most CAMs seem to fire at least a few storms but most of them don't really seem Day 3 enhanced worthy quite yet, although CAMs can be a little questionable at this range. I think the initial slight risk for Day 3 was just fine. Not sold yet on a major outbreak but anything that does end up breaking the cap it would probably be a strong tornado producer.

I think Saturday could end up being a pretty big event but there could be some morning convection issues so we'll see when we get closer how potent it ends up being.

ElectricStorm wrote:I'm still wondering if the cap will be breakable on Thursday or not, especially with how dry the EML source region has been lately. Most CAMs seem to fire at least a few storms but most of them don't really seem Day 3 enhanced worthy quite yet, although CAMs can be a little questionable at this range. I think the initial slight risk for Day 3 was just fine. Not sold yet on a major outbreak but anything that does end up breaking the cap it would probably be a strong tornado producer.

I think Saturday could end up being a pretty big event but there could be some morning convection issues so we'll see when we get closer how potent it ends up being.

Looking at Tulsa's graphic they seem to think flooding is a bigger concern than severe weather but I guess we'll see. I've definitely seen a lot of hype about Saturday otherwise

Brent wrote:

ElectricStorm wrote:I'm still wondering if the cap will be breakable on Thursday or not, especially with how dry the EML source region has been lately. Most CAMs seem to fire at least a few storms but most of them don't really seem Day 3 enhanced worthy quite yet, although CAMs can be a little questionable at this range. I think the initial slight risk for Day 3 was just fine. Not sold yet on a major outbreak but anything that does end up breaking the cap it would probably be a strong tornado producer.

I think Saturday could end up being a pretty big event but there could be some morning convection issues so we'll see when we get closer how potent it ends up being.

Looking at Tulsa's graphic they seem to think flooding is a bigger concern than severe weather but I guess we'll see. I've definitely seen a lot of hype about Saturday otherwise

Saturday really depends on how much early convection there is and whether or not the atmosphere can recover behind it. Other than that, the overall setup is pretty concerning although I do think areas further west would be more at risk than the Tulsa area

ElectricStorm wrote:

Brent wrote:

ElectricStorm wrote:I'm still wondering if the cap will be breakable on Thursday or not, especially with how dry the EML source region has been lately. Most CAMs seem to fire at least a few storms but most of them don't really seem Day 3 enhanced worthy quite yet, although CAMs can be a little questionable at this range. I think the initial slight risk for Day 3 was just fine. Not sold yet on a major outbreak but anything that does end up breaking the cap it would probably be a strong tornado producer.

I think Saturday could end up being a pretty big event but there could be some morning convection issues so we'll see when we get closer how potent it ends up being.

Looking at Tulsa's graphic they seem to think flooding is a bigger concern than severe weather but I guess we'll see. I've definitely seen a lot of hype about Saturday otherwise

Saturday really depends on how much early convection there is and whether or not the atmosphere can recover behind it. Other than that, the overall setup is pretty concerning although I do think areas further west would be more at risk than the Tulsa area

Yeah Wichita mentioned violent tornadoes in the afd looks like the best threat might be northwest of here

I'm imagining a big line probably late at night over here

Brent wrote:

ElectricStorm wrote:

Brent wrote:
Looking at Tulsa's graphic they seem to think flooding is a bigger concern than severe weather but I guess we'll see. I've definitely seen a lot of hype about Saturday otherwise

Saturday really depends on how much early convection there is and whether or not the atmosphere can recover behind it. Other than that, the overall setup is pretty concerning although I do think areas further west would be more at risk than the Tulsa area

Yeah Wichita mentioned violent tornadoes in the afd looks like the best threat might be northwest of here

I'm imagining a big line probably late at night over here

Usually Tulsa misses out on the tornadoes. It’s usually either west or east of there from what I’ve noticed.

With April rounding out, the hottest temperature at DFW so far in 2024 was...94 back in February.

While the main dryline action should stay to the west tomorrow, I'm feeling pretty confident about a strong/severe squall line late tomorrow night/early Friday morning. Could see a few QLCS spin ups as it moves through. 0z HRRR has it nearing OKC metro around 3am and Tulsa around 5am.

New Day 1 outlook tornado probs

Ntxw wrote:With April rounding out, the hottest temperature at DFW so far in 2024 was...94 back in February.

DFW's average date for the first 90*F day is 4/26. So looking at it from that perspective, we're well ahead of the game.

In 1980 and last year (which both ended up being the hottest and 3rd hottest Summers on record), we only had 1 90*F+ day prior to 4/26. In 1998, the first 90*F+ day (which also happened to be the first 100*F+ day) wasn't observed until 5/6.

Enhanced risk expanded to OKC metro for the overnight line

Not very often you see the Euro EPS this juiced up