Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I have glanced at the long range 10 day GFS runs as well. It does hint of a pattern that will at least finally give more seasonable norms in terms of temperatures for this time of year (avg high 64 avg low 43) back to the Jacksonville area and the rest of north Florida. The huge question of course will be if any of that arctic air that has been bottled up across Alaska and extreme NW Canada for weeks will finally make a move southward down into the CONUS as we start January shortly. We shall see. Time will tell. The La Nina pattern has really kept Florida and most of the Southeast US so incredibly mild to this point. I have only measured one morning below freezing at my north Jax home this season, and that happened on November 12. Amazing.

[psyclone]

this is without a doubt the nicest December I can remember down here, making the contrast with last December (the worst by far) all the more stark. I am loving this (lack of) of winter thus far. I hope it lasts. we have earned a nice winter after the last few years.

I am a very big fan of last year's winter. And with that I am glad this 80 degree and no rain stuff should be on its way out toward the end of the year...or so says the GFS.

i am both mystified and humored by those who live in florida and dislike warm weather. it is the lifeblood of our state. agriculture and tourism, the backbone of our economy would wither under winters like last year's. there are plenty of states to freeze in during december. thankfully, this year ours isn't one of them (at least so far). if we can just tiptoe through the next two months, we will have escaped. it's tough to imagine us not having the deal with some chilly weather at some point but i hope the freezing temps and excessive wind driven cold stay away. many of us are cold weather refugees. we've dealt with enough of that prior to moving here. and let there be no doubt, no northerner wants to put out a bunch of cash on a Disney world trip to put up with freezing weather. they'll go back up north and tell their friends how much they spent to freeze. not good PR for us.

[JonathanBelles]

Cold weather is in my blood as a New Yorker. It was not my choice to move to FL (my parents when I was 13), but I probably will not move too much farther north when I have the money to move. Being in Tallahassee lets me see both the heat/tropics and the the cold/sleet. I like the changeability of the north rather than the sustained sweat of the south, but if a job pops up to the south..especially if it pops up at the NHC...I will move south.

[psyclone]

Cold weather is in my blood as a New Yorker. It was not my choice to move to FL (my parents when I was 13), but I probably will not move too much farther north when I have the money to move. Being in Tallahassee lets me see both the heat/tropics and the the cold/sleet. I like the changeability of the north rather than the sustained sweat of the south, but if a job pops up to the south..especially if it pops up at the NHC...I will move south.

I completely understand what you're saying here. as much as i enjoy florida, i would not have wanted to have grown up here. i can't imagine a snowless childhood. i went to the beach today and it was crowded with quite a few people (tourists, I'm sure) in the water. exceptionally warm temps for late december.

[gsytch]

I grew up in central NJ and moved here in 1988 at 25.....the snow and cold were interesting. But after two straight days of sunny, 81F afternoons I remember why I moved here. Frozen windows in the morning trying to navigate snow laden roads, ice pellets and sleet, or even those nasty, rainy cold spring days when it was nice on Friday but Saturday was awful....I would even love to move further south than Tampa Bay. Gets too cold here for me. I'll take the Caribbean lol..just keep those warm days coming!

[Sanibel]

Nice and warm on the shortest day of the year. Near record highs 84*. Crickets chirping outside.

[Bocadude85]

Cold weather is in my blood as a New Yorker. It was not my choice to move to FL (my parents when I was 13), but I probably will not move too much farther north when I have the money to move. Being in Tallahassee lets me see both the heat/tropics and the the cold/sleet. I like the changeability of the north rather than the sustained sweat of the south, but if a job pops up to the south..especially if it pops up at the NHC...I will move south.

I completely understand what you're saying here. as much as i enjoy florida, i would not have wanted to have grown up here. i can't imagine a snowless childhood. i went to the beach today and it was crowded with quite a few people (tourists, I'm sure) in the water. exceptionally warm temps for late december.

I grew up in South Florida and loved it. We visited family up north where it did snow and I have to say I am not a fan of the cold or snow. I am loving this warm weather.

[NDG]

Some of you in the north might find it strange but I moved to central FL because New Orleans started getting too cold for me in the winter, lol.
I enjoyed the cold wx that N.O. would get in the winter, though I would say that it was in the 80s, which was probably some of the coldest winters in the deep south during that decade, but as I grew older I started hating the cold and enjoying the tropical wx better as most of my childhood years were in Cuba. I came to the conclusion that tropical wx is in my blood and I had to live close to the tropics and the beach, a real beach to cool off during the long hot summers. N.O. does not have a nice beach that is closer than a 3 hour drive and having just a pool goes old really quick. And if I really want to cool off during the summer I have the Wekiva and Rock Springs with their clear and refreshing waters just 5-10 minutes from the house.

[Scorpion]

I gotta admit it is pretty nice waking up to 70 degrees. Much preferable than 40.

[Sanibel]

Going out to get the mail, it is amazing that the nadir sun can still have a warm bite at this time of year.

Once you acclimate to the tropical comfort you don't like any chill anymore. When those cold fronts come you think to yourself how could I live in Belize? lol (Though I wish I could magically snap right to a nice cross country ski trip in deep snow on a mountain but then transport right back to Florida)

Florida needed to be another 300 miles longer like Malaysia. Then you would really get some hurricane action nearly every year.

[northjaxpro]

Here is an interesting climate excerpt from the NWS WFO Jacksonville from this morning's AFD. This truly shows just how mild/warm this December has been due currently to the influences of the positive phases of the NAO and AO and La Nina:

CLIMATE...1994 WAS THE LAST DECEMBER WITHOUT A FREEZE AT JAX (TOTAL
OF 7 FREEZES DURING THE 1994 WINTER SEASON). THE LAST TIME WE DID
NOT HAVE A FREEZE IN DEC FOLLOWING A NOV FREEZE AT JAX WAS IN 1971
(THE 1971 WINTER HAD A TOTAL OF ONLY 5 FREEZES). LAST YEAR THE
WINTER OF 2010-2011 HAD 19 FREEZES.

So far this season is certainly resembling the 1971 winter, which was also a La Nina season. The only freeze I have measured here at my home so far this Fall/Winter season was 30 degrees on November 12. Amazing what a difference a year makes!

[jinftl]

Our consistently warm December this year is such a contrast to last December. December 2010 was the coldest December on record in Florida. The Chamber of Commerce is loving this December for sure - sunny and 80 degrees on Christmas is much better for business with so many folks from out of town, they are loving the fun in the sun weather (as are the hotels and restaurants with outdoor dining).

How different is this December than last year?

In December 2010, all but one day in Orlando had below-average temperatures. Seven days during the month had highs only in the 40s and 50s.

So far in December 2011 (through 12/23), Orlando has had 19 days with above normal temps. 21 days (and counting) this month have had highs in the 70s and 80s.



In December 2010, Miami had 11 days with high temperatures in the 60s and 50s. Morning lows were also in the 30s and 40s on 11 different days.

So far in December 2011 (through 12/23), Miami has had 15 days with high temps in the 80s and 12 nights with lows in the 70s. Only 2 nights have had lows in the 50s, and the coolest high temp has been 74 deg.


Santa off of Fort Lauderdale beach yesterday:

[gsytch]

Yesterday, I could feel the heat off the pavement when I got out of the gym in the lot. Wow! So nice to have 82F and sunshine on Xmas eve. Last year we were getting ready for a post-Xmas freeze and already had 4 with a few closer calls....my plants are thankful, as am I. Sat and baked in the sun for 30 mins. Felt sooooo good but it is still December so the tan will have to mostly wait lol..

[Patrick99]

Yeah, I don't mind this weather at all. It's been sunscreen, shorts and sandals weather, basically just a slightly less hot extension of summer. The only problem is not being able to give the AC a break - I have not yet been able to stop running it even once this dry season. It's pretty remarkable, after the craziness in January 2010, and the very cold mornings of December 2010.

I'm sure we'll get "some" fronts in January, but I still question just how cold the air masses behind them will be, especially in comparison to the last couple winters. NAO may go slightly negative, but unless it really tanks, we're still not getting the brunt of the cold air. And look to the NW, the typical wind trajectory on our coldest days - you have to go a really long way up to get to any snow cover. Plus, south of the big lake O, the clock is ticking on our "winter" - the chance for any major cold events starts to wind down pretty steeply after about mid-January.

[FireRat]

Might get a decent shot of cold air around Jan 3...if you believe accuweather's long range forecasts. For Immokalee (inland S. Florida) they're calling for highs near 64 and lows in the low 40s for 2 days around then. I have to admit though that this season's forecasts have trended warmer as the forecast days span shorter......quite the difference compared to last December when we always trended colder!

[jinftl]

Latest Discussion from NWS Miami calls for a ridge building in as we start the new year....

....a meaningful cold front will pass through at some point this winter (perhaps several - at some point Miami and Fort Lauderdale will have a few nights with lows below 50 degrees...it happens every winter), not sure if that is in the cards by January 3rd though...

...and temps cooling to at or above normal doesn't count as a meaningful cold front!!!

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO THE S WEDNESDAY AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
MAY KEEP A MINIMAL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVER S PORTION OF THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES MAY
COOL SLIGHTLY DURING THIS PERIOD BUT GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER.

Might get a decent shot of cold air around Jan 3...if you believe accuweather's long range forecasts. For Immokalee (inland S. Florida) they're calling for highs near 64 and lows in the low 40s for 2 days around then. I have to admit though that this season's forecasts have trended warmer as the forecast days span shorter......quite the difference compared to last December when we always trended colder!

[Patrick99]

Normally I'd agree, but we've been having a hard enough time getting below 60-65 (lately 70!), much less sub-50. I'm assuming the ocean temps have to be running somewhat warmer than normal, too - that won't help get it colder. It'll be interesting in January. Wonder if I will make it through an entire winter without breaking out a blanket or putting on even a light jacket.

[gsytch]

If you look at a few other models and sources, the trend is cooler for the Jan 3/4 period. I have seen anything from 68/47 here in Tampa Bay to 65/39 for N areas like Brooksville/Ocala to 70/47 for Sarasota and perhaps a few degrees cooler. Nice working in the yard weather. But we need rain here. I have totaled under 3" since early Oct and an inch fell on Halloween morning in a hour. The orchids are putting forth their best bloom ever! as a bonus......

[jinftl]

Looking at 2 recent Decembers that were very similar to December 2011 in Miami in terms of consistently above average temps and no significant cold fronts (i wouldn't consider the front forecast to move through tomorrow as a significant cold outbreak, since the low temps mid-week will only lower to what is average/a few degrees below avg for late December - in the 50's in the urban centers - before warming by late week to above normal again), we can take a look at what happened for the remainder of those winters to maybe get an indication of what could happen the rest of this winter.

In both winters, there were definitely cold snaps – but they were short in both duration and # of occurrences. Put another way, after warm Decembers in 2006 and 2007, there was no ‘payback’ for the rest of those winters in Miami. January & February 2007 and 2008 averaged normal to well above normal in temps. Don't put the winter jackets in storage just yet this winter - history shows that we may need them at least a few times in the months to follow.

That said, it is Miami we are talking about...and the warm always wins out!!!


What are the average temps in Miami during the winter (high/low)?
December - 77.5/62.2
January - 76.5/59.6
February - 77.7/60.6


This December...

December 2011 – avg temp through 12/25 (high/low) = 79.7/68.4 (avg = 74), highest temp – 82, lowest temp - 55
• Through 12/26, 18 days have been 80 degrees or higher and 14 nights have remained 70 deg or higher
January 2012 ???
February 2012???



Recap of recent winters that had similar December warmth as this year...

December 2006 – avg temp 74.4 deg (+4.5 above normal), highest temp – 84, lowest temp - 56
And for the remainder of the winter:
January 2007 – avg temp 72.5 deg (+4.4 above normal)
• Temp extremes for the month – 85/51
• Only significant cold snap was at end of the month. 1/29 had a high/low of 67/53. Only day of the month below 70 deg.
• Most of month was well above normal with 19 days hitting 80 degrees or higher
February 2007 – avg temp 69.2 deg (+0.1 above normal)
• Temp extremes for the month – 87/42
• Significant cold spell from 2/16/07 – 2/19/07, highs in the 60’s, lows in the 40’s
• Remainder of month was near average in temps



December 2007 – avg temp 74.9 deg (+5.0 above normal), highest temp – 86. Lowest temp – 53
And for the remainder of the winter:
January 2008 – avg temp 70.3 deg (+2.2 above normal)
• Temp extremes for the month – 84/39
• Significant cold snap on 1/2/08 – 1/3/08. Miami bottomed out at 39 deg on 1/3.
• Remainder of the month featured no significant cold snaps. 14 days hit 80 deg or higher and no low temps below the 50s
February 2008 – avg temp 74.3 deg (+5.2 above normal)
• Temp extremes for the month – 89/50
• Most of the month was well above normal – 21 days hit at least 80 deg, 9 days hit 85 deg or higher
• Brief cool down at the end of the month, high temp on 2/28 was 69 deg.

[AdamFirst]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
929 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LOWER KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITY OF KEY WEST...

* UNTIL 1000 PM EST

* AT 925 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
POSSIBLE WATERSPOUT ABOUT 11 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF KEY
WEST...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BOCA CHICA BY 955 PM EST...
BIG COPPITT KEY...SHARK KEY...AND BAY POINT BY 1000 PM EST...

WATERSPOUTS THAT MOVE ONSHORE ARE DANGEROUS. IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES...SEE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!