Texas Fall 2023

[Iceresistance]

DFW Love Field got 2.02 inches of rain last night

[Tejas89]

DFW Love Field got 2.75 inches of rain last night

That confused me at first read.

Can someone link or post a map of north Texas estimates? The one on my app decided to stop working during the biggest event in months lol. Always interested in how the lake watersheds did.

[Iceresistance]

DFW Love Field got 2.75 inches of rain last night

That confused me at first read.

Can someone link or post a map of north Texas estimates? The one on my app decided to stop working during the biggest event in months lol. Always interested in how the lake watersheds did.

https://texmesonet.org/

And I realized I messed up; it was 2.02 inches! Not 2.75 inches.

[rwfromkansas]

I’m in the hole of lesser amounts again.

Under an inch. Looks like .90.

Lol. I thought surely this time we could all get 2 inches in DFW. Nope.

At least an inch plus was widespread except for my area from Denton down to N Tarrant.

[CaptinCrunch]

I got about 1.5" and quartar size hail, along with some pretty good wind gust. It was pouring for a good 35-40 min as me and my brother took cover from the hail in the Wells Fargo covered banking drive-thru.

[utpmg]

2.5" in my gauge here in East Austin.

[cstrunk]

2.7" at my house since yesterday morning. 0.5" before midnight last night, and 2.2" after midnight.

Texarkana area was the winner after all... 7.49" officially in Texarkana.

[DallasAg]

3.08" IMBY. Guessing a lot of it was runoff since the first half of it came down in roughly 20 minutes.

[Iceresistance]

I got 2.9 inches, but yesterday was 3.1 inches since I had a surprise .2 from outflow boundary storms.

[jasons2k]

2.34" and still raining on top of the inch I got yesterday.

[Ntxw]

Congratulations to all who got rain! Much needed!

ECMWF seasonal (long range) has been trending more cold in the middle of the country and West than the East Coast for winter. This is due to the -PDO favoring a more -PNA and Alaskan Ridging rather than your typical GOA trough. I suspect there will be more pullbacks since Sept PDO was even more negative. I can see this trying to do something like a stronger version of 2012-2013.

[weatherdude1108]

Congratulations to all who got rain! Much needed!

ECMWF seasonal (long range) has been trending more cold in the middle of the country and West than the East Coast for winter. This is due to the -PDO favoring a more -PNA and Alaskan Ridging rather than your typical GOA trough. I suspect there will be more pullbacks since Sept PDO was even more negative. I can see this trying to do something like a stronger version of 2012-2013.

Looking for the similarities. I guess back then around this date we were talking about chilly temps across the state.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 2&start=60

[Ntxw]

Congratulations to all who got rain! Much needed!

ECMWF seasonal (long range) has been trending more cold in the middle of the country and West than the East Coast for winter. This is due to the -PDO favoring a more -PNA and Alaskan Ridging rather than your typical GOA trough. I suspect there will be more pullbacks since Sept PDO was even more negative. I can see this trying to do something like a stronger version of 2012-2013.

Looking for the similarities. I guess back then around this date we were talking about chilly temps across the state.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 2&start=60

I would put it in there with the analogs. One of the seasons where the El Nino attempt failed with a -PDO as well. This year is stronger so a more modified version. We'll be chilly in October, the first week started hot but the upcoming pattern will yield below normal temps.

[869MB]

Congratulations to all who got rain! Much needed!

ECMWF seasonal (long range) has been trending more cold in the middle of the country and West than the East Coast for winter. This is due to the -PDO favoring a more -PNA and Alaskan Ridging rather than your typical GOA trough. I suspect there will be more pullbacks since Sept PDO was even more negative. I can see this trying to do something like a stronger version of 2012-2013.

Looking for the similarities. I guess back then around this date we were talking about chilly temps across the state.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 2&start=60

I would put it in there with the analogs. One of the seasons where the El Nino attempt failed with a -PDO as well. This year is stronger so a more modified version. We'll be chilly in October, the first week started hot but the upcoming pattern will yield below normal temps.

Yeah I’m thinking the ‘reemergence’ factor from our past triple hitter La Niña just may be too much to overcome this season and possibly going into 2024. As far as the long range, what’s worrisome to me is what happens when this El Niño transitions back to Neutral and eventually La Niña again. Next year may deliver more rain opportunities for the state as compared to this year but if it does, how long will it last? That’s a long ways out and I guess we will see when we cross that bridge.

[Ntxw]

Looking for the similarities. I guess back then around this date we were talking about chilly temps across the state.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 2&start=60

I would put it in there with the analogs. One of the seasons where the El Nino attempt failed with a -PDO as well. This year is stronger so a more modified version. We'll be chilly in October, the first week started hot but the upcoming pattern will yield below normal temps.

Yeah I’m thinking the ‘reemergence’ factor from our past triple hitter La Niña just may be too much to overcome this season and possibly going into 2024. As far as the long range, what’s worrisome to me is what happens when this El Niño transitions back to Neutral and eventually La Niña again. Next year may deliver more rain opportunities for the state as compared to this year but if it does, how long will it last? That’s a long ways out and I guess we will see when we cross that bridge.

This has been on my radar for some time and worth looking into. If we were deeply entrenched in a longer -PDO mode then we'll ride like 2008-2014 period where 2009 was the nino, an island sitting around heat and drought. 2023-2024 would be a similar year and then revert back to La Nina. The strong Atlantic TC season resembles 2012 with the uncoupled warm ENSO.

Now sometimes when the ENSO coupling fails, there is a longer lag and you can really shift the next year like 2014 into 2015 and there's a rubber band effect. Once the atmosphere decides to couple it can go on a feedback loop and you get another strong +ENSO. This is definitely preferable for our water needs. But given we just got out of a period in 2015-2018 it may be too soon for a repeat. Late this winter will be telling.

[Ntxw]

One thing is for sure, for winter enthusiasts, the 'island' type El Nino nudged into the -PDO regime is golden for snow. W-Can can get cold like 1963, 1972, 2009 where the PDO was either weakly positive for a short time or negative. In a strong Nino and +PDO Canada is often very warm.

[rwfromkansas]

Larry Cosgrove hinted that this would not be a typical El Nino and seemed to hint at good things for us with that a few days ago in a FB post, but it was just a brief hint, not much detail of his thinking.

[Itryatgolf]

One thing is for sure, for winter enthusiasts, the 'island' type El Nino nudged into the -PDO regime is golden for snow. W-Can can get cold like 1963, 1972, 2009 where the PDO was either weakly positive for a short time or negative. In a strong Nino and +PDO Canada is often very warm.

There has been only one other year where the pdo has been this negative and a strong niño like we currently have. That was in the year 1876. One would think the pdo turns less negative moving forward. This niño also is moving east to west, which is good to get convection around the Dateline, but some guy at American Weather believes its too late for us this winter by the time that happens. Hopefully it ends up colder than people think so we can have a few opportunities at winter precipitation

[Ntxw]

One thing is for sure, for winter enthusiasts, the 'island' type El Nino nudged into the -PDO regime is golden for snow. W-Can can get cold like 1963, 1972, 2009 where the PDO was either weakly positive for a short time or negative. In a strong Nino and +PDO Canada is often very warm.

There has been only one other year where the pdo has been this negative and a strong niño like we currently have. That was in the year 1876. One would think the pdo turns less negative moving forward. This niño also is moving east to west, which is good to get convection around the Dateline, but some guy at American Weather believes its too late for us this winter by the time that happens. Hopefully it ends up colder than people think so we can have a few opportunities at winter precipitation

This isn't the kind of El Nino and PDO couplet that favors the east coast. There's a huge battle with the west Atlantic warmth. The best bet there is a strong STJ and a favorable NAO. PDO favors the west and plains. You can have dateline forcing but that's walking an edge near MC-WPAC 4, 5, 6, 7 phases. That's playing with fire too, a little left and torch.

[rwfromkansas]

GFS doesn't show really any rain until the end of the run, but hopefully, that changes over time. I think it might.