STORM2K

bubba hotep wrote:Not very often you see the Euro EPS this juiced up

https://m3o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/epsens/2024042500/360/qpf_acc-mean-imp.us_sc.png

Does that come in the form of severe weather or just a good soaking?

HockeyTx82 wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Not very often you see the Euro EPS this juiced up

https://m3o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/epsens/2024042500/360/qpf_acc-mean-imp.us_sc.png

Does that come in the form of severe weather or just a good soaking?

Severe weather and some flooding will be possible for y’all.

Boy, you folks in OK are in for some exciting weather over the next few days. Have to say I’m pretty jealous. Just hope the tornadoes don’t get too crazy.

Cpv17 wrote:

Brent wrote:

ElectricStorm wrote:Saturday really depends on how much early convection there is and whether or not the atmosphere can recover behind it. Other than that, the overall setup is pretty concerning although I do think areas further west would be more at risk than the Tulsa area

Yeah Wichita mentioned violent tornadoes in the afd looks like the best threat might be northwest of here

I'm imagining a big line probably late at night over here

Usually Tulsa misses out on the tornadoes. It’s usually either west or east of there from what I’ve noticed.

The 70s were different. June 1974 had two tornadoes in one day also a tornado in of all months December 1975. April 1993 is I believe the last fatal tornado in the metro

Still waiting for most of the rain here. Had maybe a quarter inch this morning... Long way to go for the predictions

Oh and yeah so far we've barely beat the heat wave in February still haven't hit 90 yet but we hit 85 in February...

There's still time for a downtrend of course but for now I'm starting to think Saturday has High Risk potential for parts of KS/OK. Most dangerous looking setup I've seen for this area at this range since 2019

Brent wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

Brent wrote:
Yeah Wichita mentioned violent tornadoes in the afd looks like the best threat might be northwest of here

I'm imagining a big line probably late at night over here

Usually Tulsa misses out on the tornadoes. It’s usually either west or east of there from what I’ve noticed.

The 70s were different. June 1974 had two tornadoes in one day also a tornado in of all months December 1975. April 1993 is I believe the last fatal tornado in the metro

Still waiting for most of the rain here. Had maybe a quarter inch this morning... Long way to go for the predictions

Oh and yeah so far we've barely beat the heat wave in February still haven't hit 90 yet but we hit 85 in February...

It has to do with timing. Usually by the time things get to Tulsa, everything has formed into an MCS that rolls through overnight with strong winds and rains. The supercells seem to usually start over west-central OK and congeal into an MCS once they get east of OKC. That’s what it seems like to me anyway. I think the sweet spot for strong tornadoes is from about 4-8pm but there’s always exceptions.

Cpv17 wrote:

Brent wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:
Usually Tulsa misses out on the tornadoes. It’s usually either west or east of there from what I’ve noticed.

The 70s were different. June 1974 had two tornadoes in one day also a tornado in of all months December 1975. April 1993 is I believe the last fatal tornado in the metro

Still waiting for most of the rain here. Had maybe a quarter inch this morning... Long way to go for the predictions

Oh and yeah so far we've barely beat the heat wave in February still haven't hit 90 yet but we hit 85 in February...

It has to do with timing. Usually by the time things get to Tulsa, everything has formed into an MCS that rolls through overnight with strong winds and rains. The supercells seem to usually start over west-central OK and congeal into an MCS once they get east of OKC. That’s what it seems like to me anyway. I think the sweet spot for strong tornadoes is from about 4-8pm but there’s always exceptions.

Yeah I've noticed it too. Since I moved here the only thing that we've had worse than the rest of the state was the derecho in June. I always say nothing happens here for months but it's true nothing has happened since the week of winter in January I feel like and that was much more about the cold than anything. We never had a good snow

AC turned on for the first time this year

Interesting how the CIPS analogs weren't ever very high on today and so far they were right with just a couple landspout tornadoes. Seems like the cap and perhaps some dry air aloft preventing a bigger event so far. Seems to be the theme so far this season in the plains, although I do think Saturday could be different.

Still on track for an MCS here overnight with QLCS tornadoes possible.

Take it with a grain of salt since it's the 48 hour HRRR but this run is showing the exact scenario we need to prevent a significant outbreak on Saturday. Lots of cloud cover/morning convection as well as afternoon convection firing too early. Still looks like a few significant supercells so it certainly wouldn't fully kill the threat but it would be probably the best case scenario compared to some of the other models.

We'll see if it's enough to keep the SPC from putting up a Day 2 moderate or not.

Iceresistance wrote:AC turned on for the first time this year

I've had it on off and on since February. Lol. But, I like to sleep cold.

Did not expect tornado sirens already

Brent wrote:Did not expect tornado sirens already

Yeah, there was a tornado west of Shawnee earlier this morning

Brent wrote:Did not expect tornado sirens already

Okay rather anticlimactic otherwise but what a way to start the day

At least some of us got something.

Meanwhile, so much for that 90% chance of rain here this morning (since then, it's been decreased to 70% for now), lol...

So over this severe weather season...

I guess the cap over NTX canceled out the rain chances over night. 70% to notta a drop

Hopefully it's nice this evening for our monthly bike ride around Fort Worth.

Storms starting to fire south and west of DFW. Its gonna be hard to stay dry this afternoon, i think.

WacoWx wrote:Storms starting to fire south and west of DFW. Its gonna be hard to stay dry this afternoon, i think.

Whatever does fire won't last long, this evening chances of showers is 10%

I disagree, at least for Dallas.

It gone rain.

lol...

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/17838 ... s6NVA&s=19