Texas Spring 2026

[wxman22]

[rwfromkansas]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/state/images/TX_swody2.png?1776060441
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/state/images/TX_swody3.png?1776064700

This is hilarious. The entire event will end with DFW getting no severe weather at all. None.

[HockeyTx82]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/state/images/TX_swody2.png?1776060441
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/state/images/TX_swody3.png?1776064700

This is hilarious. The entire event will end with DFW getting no severe weather at all. None.

So what are people on the social platforms saying now? I mean it sounded hyped up, did not pan out, so now what?

[Ntxw]

The good news everyone is basically above normal rainfall to date for the month. Some sites out west has achieved their monthly total and more.

The oddity, despite rumblings from our southeast TX friends, Houston has the highest total to date of all the major metros . Crazy how in one swoop, averages for regions can be met and catches up. Climo usually wins, everything is relative an inch for Houston is drought but an inch for Midland is drought buster.

The bad news, despite the rains everyone is 3-7F above normal and about half the month is almost done.

[TomballEd]

The good news everyone is basically above normal rainfall to date for the month. Some sites out west has achieved their monthly total and more.

The oddity, despite rumblings from our southeast TX friends, Houston has the highest total to date of all the major metros . Crazy how in one swoop, averages for regions can be met and catches up. Climo usually wins, everything is relative an inch for Houston is drought but an inch for Midland is drought buster.

The bad news, despite the rains everyone is 3-7F above normal and about half the month is almost done.

3 good days of rain outperforming what the models and forecast said has helped SETX out nicely Some stripes of 4 inch rains, We take.

[rwfromkansas]

Yeah I have moaned about the severe side, but ultimately, the state needed this badly. It is great seeing West Texas and S Texas cashing in on rain! The reservoirs out there need help.

[Stratton23]

MJO rotation is going to favor the development of a rather strong - NAO greenland block in the past week of april that builds into central canada, this idea is becoming more supported in model guidance, and that block should really help to anchor a southern storm track, cooler and wetter conditions will continue to prevail going forward, no complaints here

[wxman22]

SPC Upgraded to slight risk today here.

...Southern Plains including Oklahoma/Texas...
Confidence/potential for isolated to widely scattered locally
intense storms later this afternoon has incrementally increased,
although specifics regarding the extent of convective initiation are
still uncertain.

A moist and potentially unstable air mass will persist regionally to
the east of a dryline located around peak heating from east-central
Kansas south-southwestward into west-central Oklahoma and western
north Texas to the Texas Big Bend vicinity. Immediately east of the
dryline, warm-sector dewpoints are expected to generally be in the
middle 60s F, supporting MLCAPE values to 2500-3000 J/kg. A subtle
disturbance over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies could
approach the dryline/warm sector later today.

Regardless, ample post-dryline mixing and near-dryline
confluence/weak convergence should be sufficient for isolated deep
convective initiation after 21z/4pm CDT. Forecast mass fields and
some short-term guidance would imply that this is most probable
across central/southwest Oklahoma into the north Texas Big Country,
and perhaps somewhat separately across the Texas Big Bend and Rio
Grande vicinity.

If/where storms develop and mature, deep-layer shear on the order of
40+ kt will support supercells, potentially capable of all hazards
including very large hail.

[HockeyTx82]

Unless things change the latest HRRR run shows nothing, so I guess it's highly conditional?

[wxman22]

Unless things change the latest HRRR run shows nothing, so I guess it's highly conditional?

Yes, it’s a conditional threat. Depending if the cap breaks.

[Fifty Rock]

Unless things change the latest HRRR run shows nothing, so I guess it's highly conditional?

Yes, it’s a conditional threat. Depending if the cap breaks.

Starting to get a few light returns out this way, possible watch could go up soon.

[txtwister78]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/state/images/TX_swody2.png?1776060441
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/state/images/TX_swody3.png?1776064700

This is hilarious. The entire event will end with DFW getting no severe weather at all. None.

That's a good thing no??? I get the rain aspect.

So far down here we've been pretty fortunate to get the latter without the severe.

[wxman22]

[ElectricStorm]

Storms trying to fire off the dryline in NW TX, we'll see if they can sustain themselves. If so, sig severe is possible with a potent environment but still a decent chance we don't see much.

[JDawg512]

I am very happy that we got rain, however not as much as I would've hoped and this "active" period is not really so active after forecast from EWX were originally stating several days of rain on Friday for the middle of this week now looks like we won't see much of anything along the I35 corridor till Saturday. I'll take what we got and Austin finally looks green the way it's meant to this time of year but ultimately these wet periods are simply not lasting as long. Let's hope that blocking takes place to keep the southern storm track.

[WeatherNewbie]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/state/images/TX_swody2.png?1776060441
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/state/images/TX_swody3.png?1776064700

This is hilarious. The entire event will end with DFW getting no severe weather at all. None.

That's a good thing no??? I get the rain aspect.

So far down here we've been pretty fortunate to get the latter without the severe.

No kidding... hard pass on tornadoes and hail in the heart of severe weather season.

[txtwister78]

I am very happy that we got rain, however not as much as I would've hoped and this "active" period is not really so active after forecast from EWX were originally stating several days of rain on Friday for the middle of this week now looks like we won't see much of anything along the I35 corridor till Saturday. I'll take what we got and Austin finally looks green the way it's meant to this time of year but ultimately these wet periods are simply not lasting as long. Let's hope that blocking takes place to keep the southern storm track.

I would say watch Wednesday as the dryline pushes a little further east before we get to the weekend but the pattern definitely remains active for the foreseeable future.

Granted that doesn't mean daily rainfall (not sure EWX ever had that) but again the prospects for more rain down the road as outlined per CPC and model data still looks promising.

Still a long way to go there my friend before anyone should characterize this particular pattern or the tally as it relates to overall seasonal rainfall in my opinion for the region.

[ElectricStorm]

Storms trying to fire off the dryline in NW TX, we'll see if they can sustain themselves. If so, sig severe is possible with a potent environment but still a decent chance we don't see much.

And predictably they did not sustain. We go again tomorrow... Much better chance then today

[rwfromkansas]

This is hilarious. The entire event will end with DFW getting no severe weather at all. None.

That's a good thing no??? I get the rain aspect.

So far down here we've been pretty fortunate to get the latter without the severe.

No kidding... hard pass on tornadoes and hail in the heart of severe weather season.

True. I like watching them but I don’t want big hail hitting my house. Just got a new roof last year.

[wxman22]

It's worth noting that models are starting to show a deep trough digging to the west after the 20th FWIW.It's still a ways out and things will change. But there is enough of a signal in the models that it's worth watching imo.