Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
946 PM AST SUN JUL 12 2009

.UPDATE...
UPPER TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE REGION AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN CREATING WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW JUST NORTH OF
ISLANDS. AS A RESULT MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING INDUCED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...AS HINTED BY LOW
LEVEL NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL AREAS OF THE
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REST OF THE DAY. LATEST TJSJ
GFS MODEL SOUNDING ALSO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FOR MONDAY...AS COMPARED TO THE FAIRLY DRY 00Z TJSJ U/A
SOUNDING THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE
TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS EAST INTERIOR AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...HOWEVER STAYED FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE...AS
EXPECT THE FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR WILL
QUICKLY FILTER IN FROM THE EAST...IN ADVANCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
STILL EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND WILL EXPERIENCE SOME PASSING
SHOWERS AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS FROM TIME TO TIME BUT NO WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

[cycloneye]

Scattered showers are moving thru Puerto Rico in the overnight hours caused by a surface trough.

[cycloneye]

Good morning fellow Eastern Caribbean friends.After a rainy night,sunrise is beautiful with clear skies. But the story will be different on tuesday when a wave will arrive.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 AM AST MON JUL 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 52W THIS MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUE. STRONG
SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO AFFECT THE AREA WED AND THU WITH HAZE/DUST AND
WINDY CONDITIONS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS INDICATIVE OF A
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. MOISTURE LOOKS DECENT FOR TODAY
WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES PER TPW IMAGERY AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AREA IS UNDER A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
AN UPPER HIGH JUST NORTHEAST OF THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND A TUTT
LOW OVER ERN CUBA. WITH LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING XPCT SEA
BREEZE TO GET ESTABLISHED EARLY AND SERVE AS TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION. ANTICIPATING A RATHER WET DAY WITH NMRS/LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST GIVEN SERLY STEERING WIND FLOW. 00Z
NAM12 LOOKS TOO DRY FOR TODAY AND HAVE FOLLOWED GFS MORE CLOSELY
BUT ADDING LOCAL DETAILS/EFFECTS TO POPS AND QPF.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BUILDS IN QUICKLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED NEAR 52W. EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH
LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.


.LONG TERM...TROPICAL WAVE ABOVE MENTIONED...TO AFFECT THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. AFTERWARD...ANOTHER SAHARAN DUST EVENT AND A WIND
SURGE TO TAKE PLACE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE WITH LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND
BY MIDDAY AND THEN THE WESTERN HALF IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
AROUND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS...WHILE
CREATING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. HAVING SAY THAT...SOME OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO COULD BE
STRONG...AND PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING FOR SOME AREAS. ALSO...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY
WINDS THAT COULD EXCEED THE 30 MPH AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE BY ARE POSSIBLE.

FROM LATE WEDNESDAY TROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...EXPECT HAZY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
FOR THESE DAYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME AREAS OUT WEST PUERTO RICO.

LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE BRING CLOSE TO THE
LOCAL AREA THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 24/25 WEST

&&

.AVIATION...SHRAS LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE TSTMS LATER THIS MORNING
AT JSJ AND IN THE AFTERNOON AT JMZ AND JBQ. HAVE VCTS FOR JSJ AND
JMZ AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR JBQ AS TSRA LOOKS MORE LIKELY WITH
STEERING WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WIND SURGE TRAILING THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVE BY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
ANEGADA PASSAGE...OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

[cycloneye]

Lets watch a tropical wave located in the Eastern Atlantic.We are getting into the peak of the season very soon.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

ASCA42 TJSJ 140210
RWRPR
PUERTO RICO/U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1000 PM AST MON JUL 13 2009

PRZ001-004-140300-
PUERTO RICO

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
SAN JUAN LMM   PTCLDY    81  73  78 E5        30.05R
$$

PRZ006-007-140300-
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
CHARLOTTE AMA  PTCLDY    82  73  74 E8        30.05R
CHRISTIANSTED  CLEAR     82  73  74 E14       30.05R
$$


[cycloneye]

Good morning to all the Caribbean friends.Tropical wave moving thru the Eastern Caribbean is the story today.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 140818
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 AM AST TUE JUL 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 58W THIS MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. STRONG
SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO AFFECT THE AREA TOMORROW AND THU WITH HAZE/DUST
AND WINDY CONDITIONS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...SUBSIDENCE LOOKS TO HOLD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG
58W EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT BEST
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA
UNTIL 22Z OR SO WHICH WOULD BE TOO LATE IN THE DIURNAL HEATING
CYCLE TO YIELD ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HAVE TRENDED
POPS/QPF FCST FOR THIS AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS
SHIFT BUT WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF ONLY VERY ISOLATED ACTIVITY WERE
TO DEVELOP. GIVEN SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF WAVE AXIS AND BEST MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA ONLY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE BUT NEXT SHIFT COULD LOWER POPS MORE IF
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING INCREASES. DEFINITELY LOOKING FOR MUCH LESS
ACTIVITY THAN YESTERDAY.

SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE PR TONIGHT AS WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA. A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY 12Z WED
WITH HAZE/DUST AND 25 TO 30 MPH WINDS IN GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...ONCE THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HAZY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A DENSE AREA
OF SAHARAN DUST MOVES OVER US. THIS SAHARAN DUST EPISODE WILL
LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ALSO...THIS AREA OF DUST
IS BEING ACCOMPANYING BY A WIND SURGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AVERAGING BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ANY CONVECTION THAT FORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 72
HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...COULD PRODUCE STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH SHOWERS. THIS IS A
CHARACTERISTIC OF THIS TYPE SAHARAN DUST/WIND SURGE EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST SITES. LESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THAN YDAY SO ONLY VCTS AT JBQ.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS AND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST LATE FRIDAY. A WIND SURGE
BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIND WAVES
FROM 5 TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE WATERS BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR
NOW UNTIL THEN...MARINERS SHOULD USE CAUTION ACROSS ALL NEAR AND
OFF SHORE COASTAL WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WESTERN COASTAL
WATERS OF PUERTO RICO...WHERE SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FEET WITH WINDS
AVERAGING 10 TO 17 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[cycloneye]

It was a beautiful day here with a moderate ENE breeze.Some showers will move theu tonight as the wave passes by.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 141953
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
353 PM AST TUE JUL 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE WEST OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE
IMAGES ARE SHOWING THE MOST ACTIVE AREA OF THIS SYSTEM IS ALONG THE
BACK EDGE OF THE WAVE. THESE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ONCE THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT HAZY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A DENSE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST
MOVES OVER US. THIS SAHARAN DUST EPISODE WILL LIMIT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH 00Z...AND ACROSS THE TIST
AND TISX FROM 00Z-04Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY REACH
TJSJ BY 03Z...WITH VERY STABLE AIR...HAZY SKIES...AND E WINDS OF
15-25 KTS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TAF SITES BEHIND THIS WAVE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WIND SURGE BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIND WAVES FROM 5 TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE
ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning fellow Caribbean friends.Wave moved thru PR without fanfare.Hazy day expected today.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 150821
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST WED JUL 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH HAZE/DUST AND GUSTY
WINDS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY AND LAST INTO FRIDAY. NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. A MORE MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A 0710Z ACARS SOUNDING FROM SAN JUAN SHOWS SIG MID LVL
WARMING HAS TAKEN PLACE SINCE THE 00Z JSJ RAOB WAS LAUNCHED AS TEMP
PROFILE SHOWS +13C AT 9KFT. THIS CAP IS FCST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE DAY AS A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH NO SURPRISE PWAT VALUES ARE FCST TO DROP
THROUGH THE DAY AND FCST TO BOTTOM OUT TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES QUITE
LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IN THE TROPICS. EVEN IN THE WESTERN
INTERIOR IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME THIS CAP SO HAVE DROPPED
POPS TO THE LOWEST CHANCE POSSIBLE. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF
ANYTHING DEVELOP TODAY AT ALL. HAZE/DUST AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH 25 TO 30 MPH WINDS IN GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY TODAY.
THIS STRONG CAP IS EXPECTED TO HOLD STRONG THROUGH FRIDAY PUTTING
A LID ON CONVECTION. VERY LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.

MOISTURE FCST TO INCREASE ON SAT WITH CAP WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY
AND MID LEVELS WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT SUGGESTING NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE PASSAGE THE ONE THAT IS ANALYZED ALONG 40W ON THE 06Z TAFB
DISCUSSION. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION IN THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TRUE MOIST TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE AND A
HEALTHY LOOKING WAVE CROSSING THE REGION MONDAY THAT JUST EXITED THE
AFRICAN COAST THIS MORNING. MODELS DONT DO MUCH WITH THIS WAVE AT
THIS POINT IN TERMS OF TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
MORE CLIMO NUMBERS FOR SAT AND NEXT WEEK SIGNALING A WETTER PATTERN
BUT CAP POPS AT 50% DUE TO LOCAL POLICY.

&&

.AVIATION...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AS
OF 15/0800Z...IS PRODUCING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR SECTION OF THE ISLAND AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
COAST. RAINFALL HAS BEEN LIGHT ACROSS AFFECTED LAND AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND THE VISIBILITY HAS REMAINED GREATER THAN 8 MILES FOR
ALL LOCAL TAF SITES.

ACROSS THE USVI TAF SITES...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS DAWN TIME
APPROACHES WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. SAHARAN DUST BEHIND THE WAVE WILL PRODUCE HAZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. VISIBILITY MAY BE
AVERAGING BETWEEN 6 TO 8 MILES DURING THE DAY AS AN STRONG PULSE OF
DUST MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

OVER PUERTO RICO...HAZY...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE THE RULE OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE AND THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. SCA
REMAIN IN EFFECT.

[cycloneye]

Bad weather for us is instore this weekend,going into the early part of next week as the wave moves thru the Eastern Caribbean.So far none of the models develop this into a storm but we have to follow future runs from them to see if that continues or there are changes.

12z GFS loop

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
412 PM AST WED JUL 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...FAIR WEATHER AND HAZY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS STABLE AIR FILTERED IN BEHIND THE LATEST TROPICAL
WAVE. STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING WIND SURGE CREATED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE WATERS
AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...WITH THESE ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SATURDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A TUTT LOW
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC SINKS SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
LOCAL AREA IN COMBINATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all in the Caribbean.It looks like we will be under a rather wet period starting on Saturday because of the train of waves.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
423 AM AST THU JUL 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH HAZE/DUST AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY. ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOCAL MODELS SHOW A VERY SMALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR A LONE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY ESPECIALLY GIVEN
EXPECTED VERY HOT TEMPS THERE. (97F DEGREES OBSERVED AT MAYAGUEZ YESTERDAY).
OTHERWISE...DRY ELSEWHERE WITH HAZE AND DUST ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT
AS BAD AS YESTERDAY. CAP LOOKS TO STRENGHTEN ON FRI WITH A DROP IN
PWAT VALUES SO NO CONVECTION ANYWHERE LIKE YESTERDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE CAP WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY ON SAT
AND MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE WHICH SHOULD YIELD SCT CONVECTION IN
THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W EARLY THIS MORNING APPEARS TO HAVE A MID-
LVL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT LACKS ANY DEEP CONVECTION
AS IT SURROUNDED BY A MODERATE SAHARAN AIR LAYER. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE AGGRESIVE IN MOISTENING THINGS UP OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS
THE TROP ATLC WITH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON SUN AFTERNOON
AND NOT ON SAT AS IT LOOKED YESTERDAY. HAVE RAISED POPS IN THE
LIKELY/NMRS CATEGORY FOR SUN AS NAVY AEROSOL MODEL (NAAPS) SHOWS
SAL TAKING A BREAK OVR THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUE. NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOW ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THESE TWO WAVES AS SHEAR LOOKS TO REMAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE 20-30KT RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY SAHARAN AIR PREVAILS AND WILL LIMIT ALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON BOTH LAND AND OVER WATER. EXPECT ONLY MINOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN PUERTO RICO FROM STREAMERS AFTER 16/15Z AND LITTLE
OR NO AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM 16/16Z-16/22Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG COASTAL
AREAS. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE PEAKED BUT CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN
MARGINALLY UNSAFE FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS. EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENTS REMAIN IN EFFECT.

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 161927
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
327 PM AST THU JUL 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR REPORTED A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WHERE MOST OF OF THEM HAVE
ALREADY DISSIPATED. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE ON
SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
HAZE WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED ALONG THE LONGITUDE 47W WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONT EDGE OF THIS WEATHER
FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOST MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THE WEATHER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A
MORE ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE LONGITUDE 31W
WILL REACH OUR LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

000
ASCA42 TJSJ 162110
RWRPR
PUERTO RICO/U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 PM AST THU JUL 16 2009

PRZ001-004-162200-
PUERTO RICO

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
SAN JUAN LMM   MOSUNNY   88  75  66 E15       30.00F HX  97
PONCE          MOSUNNY   90  77  66 S12G23    29.95F HX 102
MAYAGUEZ       PTSUNNY   88  75  66 W5        29.98F HX  97
AGUADILLA      MOSUNNY   84  75  74 E22       30.00F HX  92
$$

PRZ006-007-162200-
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
CHARLOTTE AMA  MOSUNNY   88  73  62 NE15G25   29.99F HX  96
CHRISTIANSTED  MOSUNNY   88  73  62 E17G23    29.98F HX  96


Good evening fellow Caribbean friends.We are going to enter a rather wet period starting this weekend and going into next week as a series of tropical waves move thru.That will be a good time to come to our tent thread to post about what is going on in your areas as the rainy days ahead come.

[Gustywind]

Seems that you're right Cycloneye...as well Meteo-France is speaking about a very sad week-end in their last weather forecast! Given our pro mets a strong patch with showers and tstorms from the ITCZ has began to climb from the south of the Leewards Islands. This feature should bring a serious deterioration of the weather on the entire area of Guadeloupe. Just wait and see this possible rainy episode...
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Here is a pic from our area and east of Guadeloupe

[HUC]

OK Luis,i will post on this trend with my weather obs;but,i think that we could chat on the other forum,as theses systems are still far away; or my english is limited,nd i don't understand what you mean...Gusty can translate for me.

[msbee]

hey guys
I gotta fly home on Sunday.
Don't tell me the weather is going to be bad for landing.
Barbara

[cycloneye]

OK Luis,i will post on this trend with my weather obs;but,i think that we could chat on the other forum,as theses systems are still far away; or my english is limited,nd i don't understand what you mean...Gusty can translate for me.

Good to see you at our thread owned by us who live in the Eastern Caribbean.This thread is for all of us to post observations,forecasts and more.We also can be at Talking Tropics forum to make comments about the tropics in general but this tent that we have is exclusive for our area.

[cycloneye]

Hey guys and gals,we have a code yellow WSW of the CV islands.lets watch the progress of it.

880
ABNT20 KNHC 162338
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF
ANY...IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

hey guys
I gotta fly home on Sunday.
Don't tell me the weather is going to be bad for landing.
Barbara

Well Barbara,it looks like the first wave of the 3 now in the Atlantic will arrive on Saturday to the Lesser Antilles so by Sunday it has passed you,I hope so.