Florida Weather

[NDG]

Yeap, it was way too early for 90 degrees wx, nice cool down this weekend and then again by the middle of next week.

[gsytch]

I'm actually chilly this morning. My digital reads 56.1F right now here in New Port Richey. This weather is to continue all week. Unfortunately, there was no rainfall with the front Friday, and none expected all week. The April/May DRY is well on its way, and I am also seeing smoke advisories for GA and northern FL already. On the plus side - talk about comfortable, and no AC or heat required! My skin, not so much! The yard work yesterday has me paying that price.

[gsytch]

Dry dry dry...........and more dry. Beautiful, comfortable but dry. Where is the rain?????

[Sanibel]

Cool stretch. 5 minute shower today.

72*

[HURAKAN]

Got 2.04 inches of rain this morning

[gsytch]

Lucky you! Sunny, breezy, dry here 80's typical of the season. No precip in the forecast for quite some time. Send the rains over here!

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, it is bone dry across most of the state courtesy of our large upper level ridge parked across the Southeast U.S and Western Atlantic. The only good thing to this point is that the east-southeast wind flow impacting the peninsula is keeping the smoke well inland away from the Jax metro away for now. The northern Baker county fire is reported to being about 70% contained, but smoke is still affecting interior areas of the northern peninsula.

The dry conditions are going to continue for much of this upcoming week with no significant rain in sight. Maybe late in the week as the system currently affecting the Plains with severe weather and tornadoes will slowly migrate east and and may allow the ridge to erode enough to veer the winds from the south and southwest over the peninsula. Hopefully, some moisture will move into the peninsula by late week to help give us some type of relief from this drought we are in currently.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It does look like Tampa NWS is thinking a cold front may get close enough to the area to bring some rain by
Saturday.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT
MORE UNCERTAIN. GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE ADVERTISING AN AMPLIFICATION
TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING DIGGING INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE DETAILS OF THIS TROUGH ARE NOT
AGREED UPON BY THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND HENCE WILL NOT GET TOO
DETAILED WITH THE FORECAST. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EAST...
SHOULD APPROACH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TOWARD...AND POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL BRING CHANCE POPS TO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN IMPROVING AND
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS JUST THE CURRENT
BEST BLENDING OF THE 00Z GFS/GFSEM/ECMWF. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM EVOLVE THROUGH THE WEEK. ENJOY THE SECOND HALF OF
YOUR WEEKEND.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[NDG]

Latest GFS looks more promising for late week for central FL, the cool front will get close enough on Thursday or as early as Wednesday night with combined surface moisture and daytime heating for the possibility of a good chance of afternoon thunderstorms, which may carry into Friday, with yet a possible stronger front for next weekend which may add to the possibilty of more thunderstorms. Keeping my fingers crossed.

[HURRICANELONNY]

The long range models are also showing that a few of the storms
could even be strong Saturday night into Sunday morning over the
County Warning Area...due to the cold air aloft and the middle to upper level energy
moving through the area. So South Florida residents and visitors
need to continue to monitor the latest forecast from the Miami
National weather office through the week on the possibility of strong
storms for this weekend.

Looks interesting for next weekend. Have to wait and see if it happens. When it gets closer to the weekend.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

GFS model run on Saturday night and Sunday morning shows a line of "precipitation"
moving into the west coast of Florida and across the state. Some
of the brighter colors out in the gulf mean we might get some beneficial rain.

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/m ... &domain=TA

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Severe thunderstorms could affect west central
Florida Saturday night according to the latest
Tampa Hazardous weather outlook discussion.
It's going to get active folks.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND WILL
BE PRECEDED BY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST SUCH AS THE INTENSITY AND ACTUAL TRACK
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND INDICATES A POTENTIAL THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... er+Outlook

Crown weather also forecasting possible severe storms:
http://www.crownweather.com/?p=6933

Severe Weather Is Very Possible This Weekend From North Carolina To Florida:
I am becoming increasingly concerned about the chances for severe thunderstorms this weekend across the southeastern United States from North Carolina to Florida. A very strong storm system is forecast to develop along the northwestern Gulf coast during Saturday and Saturday night and track across the Florida panhandle on Sunday and Sunday night before moving east of Florida on Monday.

Right now, it appears that the greatest threat for severe weather on Saturday afternoon into Saturday night will be from Raleigh and Charlotte, North Carolina southward to Jacksonville, Tallahassee and Tampa, Florida. Main threat appears to be damaging winds, but the tornado threat is something that will need to be watched closely considering the strength of this storm system and the amount of shear it may be able to tap.

On Sunday, I think the severe weather threat be found across southern Georgia and across much of the Florida peninsula, especially across the central part of the state, including the Orlando metro area. It appears that the greatest risk times on Sunday will be from mid to late morning through the afternoon hours. Damaging winds appears to be the main threat, but the tornado risk is something that will need to be monitored.

I will be monitoring this severe weather risk closely and keep you all updated.

[cycloneye]

It looks like a very wet weekend for most of Florida as Tampa Bay Hurricane said.

Tallahassee NWS

.LONG TERM (Friday through next Tuesday)...Both the 00Z GFS and
ECMWF have flip flopped from previous runs and have come into good
agreement for the extended period. This new solution has slowed
down the progression of upper/lower features about 12hrs. Still
with shifts in model runs overall confidence in timing and
intensity of weekend weather event not high. Period commences with
shift from quasi-zonal longwave pattern to an increasingly
amplified one. The includes ridging over wrn states, amplified
positively tilted trough from Nrn Plains SW to 4 Corners, and
ridging over Ern states. At surface low over Srn Great Lakes with
cold front SWWD thru Wrn most TN Valley and into TX.

Ahead of these systems, upper trough shifts Ewd with axis from Great
Lakes swwd to developing cut off low over NE TX Fri night. GFS
remains a tad stronger and slower with low while EURO shows more of
open wave before transitioning into cutoff low on Sat. Cut off low
moves slowly ewd and deepens along Gulf Coast not reaching local
region until Sun aftn with GFS cutoff slightly deeper. Low then
opens up and lifts newd along Ern seaboard. At surface, reflection
of mid/upper low develops over Wrn Gulf on Sat with GFS again deeper
996mb vs 1002 mb. It looks like a squall line will develop ahead of
the front by Sat night. Low then shifts ewd dragging cold front ewd
exiting local area Sun aftn/eve and into Wrn Atlc on Mon with EURO
about 6hrs faster. With either solution, if all falls into place,
local area will be placed in warm sector during part of weekend then
ingredients in place for severe storms. wrap around moisture will
linger into overnight hours, especially with GFS and across ern
counties.

Miami NWS

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHARP TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY BY FRIDAY AND DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/NRN GULF BY SATURDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
EASTWARD, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, GOOD OMEGA VALUES...STRONG LOW LVEL JET (30-40 KTS AT
850 MB) AND GOOD LI VALUES AS A SQUALL LINE FEATURE AHEAD OF THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME SUNDAY DURING THE DAY.
THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...IS TOO EARLY AND THERE IS
TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT NEITHER TIMING NOR
LOCATION OF ANY POSSIBLE SEVERE WX AT THIS TIME. THIS WEATHER
SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITOR AND ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST WILL BE MADE AS NECESSARY. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA WE SHOULD RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS BY THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

Tampa NWS

OVER THE WEEKEND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BRINGING
A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST POPS HAVE NOW SHIFTED TO SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM IS A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT STILL EXPECTING TO SEE SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND
AREAS. POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DECENT
SHEAR ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS.

Melbourne NWS

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...UPCOMING WEEKEND FORECAST WILL BE RATHER STORMY
AS 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A RATHER POTENT MID LVL TROUGH
DROPPING ESE ACROSS ERN TX/LA SATURDAY AND TWD THE FL PANHANDLE BY
SUNDAY. GFS DEVELOPS A DEEP CLOSED LOW WITH A SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND TRACKING ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST AND INTO
GA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT BAND OF CONVECTION
WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR ONE ROUND OF DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER
THE PENINSULA WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE AFFECTING THE AREA LATER
IN THE WEEKEND...SAT NIGHT OR SUNDAY...AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER TO
THE PENINSULA. STRENGTHENING MID LVL WIND FIELDS AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PROGGED POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE STORMS BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND IF THE GFS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...SPEED AND EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH AND SFC
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING OFF THE SE ATLC COAST STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS
TIME RANGE. WILL KEEP LOWER POPS FOR RESIDUAL STORMS SUNDAY EVENING
AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY...WITH DRIER AIR LIKELY MOVING INTO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC LOW AND TROUGH PUSH INTO THE ATLC.

Jacksonville NWS

WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES FASTER WITH THE
SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS HAS SLOWED. AS DEEP AS THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO BE...WILL TREND TOWARD THE FASTER ECMWF BUT KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT TO PRODUCE SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. MOS GUIDANCE IS
CONSIDERABLY WARMER SUNDAY/MONDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY. WILL BUMP TEMPS
UP A BIT BUT CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN LATEST GUIDANCE SINCE
EXPECTING FRONT TO MOVE FASTER THAN GFS. AFTER THE REGION DRIES
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.

[NDG]

By the way the models have been trending, I am thinking the HPC will move some of the forecast heaviest QPF into the peninsula, I will not doubt if parts of central FL might also get into the 3" category by the time all is set and done over the next 4 days.

[NDG]

Still looks like a good chance for severe wx Saturday night across the Peninsula.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT WED APR 18 2012

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE GULF STATES THIS WEEKEND. AS
THE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS TX IT APPEARS SUBSTANTIAL FORCING WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WRN GULF BASIN EARLY IN THE DAY4 PERIOD AND A SQUALL
LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INSIST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN GULF BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING WITH SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE FL
PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DAY4. WITH 50-70+KT OF MID
LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO BE COLOCATED WITH THE WIND SHIFT IT WOULD
SEEM LIKELY THAT AN ORGANIZED MCS/SQUALL LINE COULD ADVANCE ACROSS
THE REGION.

..DARROW.. 04/18/2012

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, it is definitely looking more and more probable that the dynamics will be in place for the potential of severe weather this weekend across much of the peninsula. This is possibly shaping up to be the most significant threat for tornadoes to occur across the peninsula in quite awhile. We will be monitoring the situation closely as we get into the upcoming weekend. The only positve with this upcoming event is the rainfall, with the models projecting as much as 3 inches in some areas of the state this weekend. That will really do wonders in helping parched areas especially across the northern part of the peninsula. I have only measured barely over 3 inches of rain total for the year so far, which is nearly 7 inches below what the normal average should be at for April in the Jax area.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Tampa NWS now mentioning the potential for Tornadoes in addition to large hail and damaging winds,
and is using some of the strongest wording I've seen since the March tornado outbreak of last year.

WHILE THIS EVENT IS STILL 3 TO 4 DAYS OUT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS TO OUR
REGION INCLUDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
BOATING CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE AT TIMES. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY WITH HAZARDOUS SURF LIKELY
BY SUNDAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE. ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... er+Outlook

[psyclone]

southern GA, AL and all of Fl highlighted in D4 severe outlook from SPC. SVR risk and heavy rain potential definitely on the increase and while timing has yet to be worked out a nocturnal severe risk is possible over a portion of the risk zone.

[AdamFirst]

Severe weather threat is decreasing due to the position of the low pressure development, but SPC still mentions the peninsula for Saturday on its Day 3 forecast

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CDT THU APR 19 2012

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...FL...

WHILE THE LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE ADHERES TO THE OVERALL TRENDS
OF EARLIER MODEL DATA REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE NWRN GULF BASIN...A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND SWD SHIFT IS NOTED. IN
FACT THE LATEST GFS DIGS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY
IN THE PERIOD AND PREVENTS STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW FROM SPREADING
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A BAND OF 50-60KT 500MB FLOW EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PENINSULA BY 22/12Z. GIVEN THESE TRENDS
HAVE LOWERED THE SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THE SERN U.S. TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED/PLACEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH LATE IN
THE PERIOD. WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE NOTED
DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO WARRANT MORE THEN 5% PROBS.

[psyclone]

it does look like the threat has decreased significantly compared to prior runs.