Florida Weather

[Patrick99]

Decent rain in my area, but the lightning show.....haven't seen one like this in quite some time. Preamble to the rainy season - this is a classic Miami thunderstorm.

[gatorcane]

I think the rainy season may have started for South Florida. Another round of seabreeze driven storms developed today and reading the disco there are good rain chances through the week....and even still over the weekend, but not as high. Here is a good article to read not just on the rainy season but large-scale weather patterns and some global model predictions for the next several months. Enjoy:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/mfl/news ... ok2012.pdf

I posted that same link eight posts above,but that's ok.

Yeah didn't see that. Guess I am a little rusty after not posting for a long time. I got a few weeks until the Atlantic hurricane season starts to brush up

[Patrick99]

I was just going to ask you guys what makes for the official start of the rainy season. This is a definite rainy season pattern right now.

[JonathanBelles]

My take on the weather over the last week, and the rainy season ahead!

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... r-weekend/

[northjaxpro]

Lately, it has been a case of the have or the have nots in terms of rainfall the last couple of days. The rain and thrunderstorms have been scattered and heavy in spots mainly to the north and northwest of the Jax metro area. I received only about .30 of an inch of rain with the passage of the front last night. Total rainfall since Tuesday here at my location has been just over 1/2 of an inch. Needless to say, but that amount has been extremely disappointing considering that we are approaching 12" below the normal average for the date at this stage of the year.

We need several days of rainfall to put a dent into this drought. The rainy season seems to have started for my neighbors down in the southern peninsula, but it has yet to get jump started here in the north and northeast peninsula.

Well, it will be rather nice the next couple of days here with dry and mild conditions with lows near 60 and max temps in the low 80s. Models show the strong upper shortwave currently over Northern Mexico will eject out and possibly induce a surface trough or Low pressure area to develop over the western GOM starting Sunday. This system should hopefully trigger a moist east-southeast flow off the Atlantic in our region. Hopefully, this upcoming pattern will bring in chances of some rain back to the area beginning Sunday.

[gsytch]

FINALLY a storm moved ashore Wed evening, and we received .80" of much needed rainfall. A few drier days and cooler nights are really welcomed. too, due to this unusual cold front. Beautiful evening out!

[JonathanBelles]

My graphicast for the weekend.

*High pressure will continue easterly flow across Florida with central Florida showers and storms during the evening along the west coast
*Low pressure moves in from Texas on Saturday and Sunday bringing showers Saturday night in the panhandle. Rain chances across the panhandle range from 40-60%. Mother's Day is looking at least partially wet for central and northeast Florida with rain chances ranging from 30-50%.

[gsytch]

High overcast here today, lower 80's and steady. I hope that rain gets here! Nothing on radar except what is out in the Gulf hundreds of miles.

[NDG]

17z HRRR model has rain developing in interior parts of the peninsula by sunset moving eastward towards the east coast into the night but I don't know if I want to believe that, it would be nice though if it verifies.

[JonathanBelles]

A couple of pictures of last night's waterspout in Pensacola as well as a forecast for tonight and tomorrow.

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... al-update/

[northjaxpro]

Finally, we are getting heavy thunderstorms moving through currently here at my north Jax location.

[AdamFirst]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
725 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN GLADES COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT

* AT 721 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES
NORTHWEST OF LAKEPORT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
BRIGHTON SEMINOLE INDIAN RESERVATION...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

[northjaxpro]

Just did a quick check of the rain gauge and measured just over 1.6 inches of rainfall. Looks as if a few more showers and storms are developing to the west along I-10 to near Lake City. They will move through in the next hour which should get it close to 2 inches or more before it ends this evening. The storms are only drifting slowly to the east, which is allowing these storms to drop heavy rain amounts across the Jax metro area.

Definitely a blessing to see this heavy rain! This will hopefully be a start to spark the rainy season for this area. We need at least a full week of this kind of rain to put a major dent into the drought.

[gsytch]

Not a drop here. High overcast again. Easterly flow creates storms moving east while they die in the Gulf moving ashore. (

[NDG]

Wouldn't this be great if the 18z GFS was to verify
It parks a mid level trough in the middle of the GOM pumping in moisture from the Caribbean over the next couple of weeks.
Too bad is just the 18z run, lol.

[northjaxpro]

Another round of rain and storms redeveloped to the west along the I-10 corridor and have moved across the area over the past couple of hours. I have picked up an additional 1/2 of an inch with this batch of rain to bring the total to just under 2.25 inches this evening. This is the most rainfall I have measured at my location in a single day since September 2011. That is just simply amazing it has been that long since I have had such a substantial amount of rain in a 24 hour period.

It just really highlights how severe our drought has been in this part of the state.

[northjaxpro]

The total rainfall ended up being 2.55 inches at my location through last night. Some other areas of Jax metro received upwards to 4 inches.

Again, yesterday's rain total was the most measured at my location since September of last year. What a sight for sore eyes this rain gave yesterday. Hopefully this will jump start our rainy season finally!

More scattered thunderstorms in the forecast today for the area. I hope many others across the peninsula gets in on the rainfall today.

[NDG]

Models are trending towards a wetter than forecasted weekend, with the trough of low pressure retrograding westward after becoming somewhat cutoff and not deepening east of FL as the ECMWF had it earlier, which would had pulled down dry air to the peninsula over the weekend.
So yesterday's 18z gfs run might be somewhat right after all

[northjaxpro]

Let's hope so NDG. I hope the models continue to trend wetter for the peninsula by week's end.

[NDG]

12z run continues to give us a wetter than earlier forecasted weekend, wide spread 3-4" through the next 7 days across most of the Peninsula.
TV Mets are going to have to start changing their weekend forecast